As I understand it, you really can't replace natural gas power plants with nuclear.  Gas-fired plants are used as "peaking" plants - run only during times of high demand.  Nuclear (and coal) plants are used to supply the steady "baseload" of electricity.  

The other main fuel for peaking plants is oil.  

Depends upon the region.  Some NG power plants run 24/7 in Louisiana and Texas.  In the 1970s, 100% of the power there were NG.

TVA has built the Raccoon Mountain Pumped Storage (a bit more than 1,700 MW) within sight of 6 nukes (i saw them from the top).  The nukes run water up at night, down in the day.

Very little oil is used for electricity in the "Lower 48".

Nuke can replace NG, at least in part.

I bet all the new gas-fired plants being built now are peaking plants, though.  Millions of dollars of natural gas power plants were cancelled a few years ago, when it became clear that supply was going to be a problem.  The ones still being built are the ones that have to be natural gas.  

It's an economic thing, at least according to my utility company.  The fuels for peaking plants are so expensive now that there's no way they're going to build baseload plants that use them.

A gas fired plant came on line this past summer about 1/4 mile from me. It is not a peak plant. It is a co-gen plant. Heats water for the University, 1.5 megawatts for the rest of us.
I think Alan got this one right. The cost of fuel for a nuke is a very minor cost of production and the figurative burn is largely fixed in any event. Accordingly, there is an almost perfect inverse relationship between total output and cost per MW. Hence if at all possible, you want to run a nuke at or near designed capacity.
I think Alan got this one right.

Nope.   I've not seen a single fission nuke proponent explain why such energy generation needs government libality protection for accidents if 'cost comparison' is such an important mechinism.

"I've not seen a single fission nuke proponent explain why such energy generation needs government libality protection for accidents if 'cost comparison' is such an important mechinism."

My point was that a nuke at idle costs about the same amount to operate as a nuke producing at capacity. It is all about spreading fixed costs over units of production. No production -- infinitely high unit costs -- production at capacity essentially the same total costs spread out over design capacity of the plant.

As to why liability relief is needed, as a libertarian, my basic belief is that that Government shouldn't be bestowing relief on one class of producers. However, the counter to that is the fact that there is simply no way to commercially insure the risk involved with a serious accident at a nuke on the open market. No responsible party will write these policies as the theory of insurance requires some predictability of occurence [or at least a basis for handicapping the odds] and the more critically the financial capability on the part of the issuer to pay off. Both are lacking in the case of nukes.

Without effective risk management to place limits on liability, a company operating nukes will be seen as [sorry -- pun intended] radioactive.

In in commercial sense, a major nuke accident represents the unthinkable. In a broader sense, the Russians had the unthinkable occur and for the most part life goes on.

It all comes down to the responsibility of the board of directors to manage risk and avoid whenever possible optional, but potentially fatal risks to the corporation. The board's duty is to the shareholders and not to the greater good -- whatever that might be.

IMO, [and from what I surmise to be Alan's perspective] the debate really is over whether we want to burn more coal; compel behavior changes --- probably at the point of a gun; simply let the SHTF as the grid collapses from overloads; go to progressively longer rolling black outs -- same end result as the other grid collapse scenario although initially the process of break down of society might be less dramatic; or build nukes.

BTW, I am positive on solar [and maybe wind] coupled with better storage technologies over the long haul, but nukes appear to be the best approach to getting through what I expect will be a nasty transition.

I don't know whether you consider the above to be an adequate explanation, but that is most of the story in few paragraphs. An even more abbreviated version might be: Generate or degenerate.

the fact that there is simply no way to commercially insure the risk involved with a serious accident at a nuke on the open market.

Exactly.

The majority of people who SUPPORT fission nuclear power with market arguments ignore how nuclear power is not a possibility without the government handout of support.

Not to mentiopn the limited nature of fissionable material.

"Not to mentiopn the limited nature of fissionable material."

The abundance of fissionable material is probably greater than the lowball estimates. OTOH, contrary to the cornucopians most granites are probably not going to ground up for the contained U235. However, though a admittedly a diffuse source, even some granite is much hotter than average and might be considered ore if it ever comes down to that.

If we are going to continue using fission reactors over the medium term [50 plus years] answer to the availability of fissionable material is the fast breeder reactor. The technology can apparently be made to work.

The issue has been the reality that plutonium is easier to enrich to weapons grade that U235. Given that in addition to the long standing nuclear powers, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Isreal, [and maybe South Africa, Brasil and some others] have the bomb, that genie is already out of the bottle.

"Not to mentiopn the limited nature of fissionable material."

The abundance of fissionable material is probably greater than the lowball estimates. OTOH

STILL limited.   Like oil was limited in 1890 amd 'we' are now discussing this limited nature today, the use of fission is limited.

have the bomb, that genie is already out of the bottle.

But that does not address the need for long-term protection of nuclear waste.   'The Bomb' is preventable just by not using
'em,  Nuclear waste is preventable only by not making it.   After it is made, you have a many year protection need - longer than any human society has existed.

STILL limited.

Everything is limited. The wind & sun energy is limited to - isn't the sun sending limited energy to the Earth? Even the whole Universe contains a limited amount of energy.

The question is can a given resource be sufficient for such  an amount of time to justify the investments we make to develop it. With hundreds of years of conventional uranium reserves and many thousands of years if we start using breeders I can assure you that the answer for nuclear is YES.

"With hundreds of years of conventional uranium reserves"

Link please?

The European Nuclear Society states that with the current reserves "all 439 world-wide operated nuclear power plants can be supplied for several decades".

But if you are talking about ramping up the use of nuclear power (as half the world is saying), then that "several decades" will be shortened quite drastically.

The "uranium reserves" figure is not like "oil reserves", because it grows exponentially with the price you are willing to pay, (oil tends to grow too but the growth figure is very quicly reaches the natural limits).

From Wikipedia:

The ultimate supply of uranium is very large. It is estimated that for a ten times increase in price, the supply of uranium that can be economically mined is increased 300 times. See World Uranium Resources.[9]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium

To say that "we have several decades of uranium left" is like saying "we have only 100 days of food left in the world" (which can make you want to shoot yourself if you don't give it a second thought).

We are nowhere near to reaching the geological limits because what is being included in the official reserves now is just the tip of the tip of the iceberg. This link for example gives more than 100 years of U under 130$:

http://www.inb.gov.br/english/reservasMundiais.asp

But this is again relative, because should U go to 100$ and above (from the current ~ $35), the breeders reactors will become competitive, meaning that you have to multiply these figures by a factor of 100. In addition many new discoveries will be found all around the world if we simply start looking for them. Even now enormous amounts of nuclear fuel are simply stored away as waste, because the processed nuclear fuel contains plutonium and unburnt uranium that can be used. But the prices are so low that it is not worthed the investment and overcoming the NIMBYSsm.

Regarding economics - even at $130, the price of fuel will be below 30% of the production costs, assuming (wrongfully of course) that the sales prices in 100 years will remain at current levels.

You can also read this link:

http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/uranium.html

Very informative, reminding you once again to question your assumptions before making projections for the future (especially far in the future).

Magnus Reding had the idea of spreading the costs of a hypothetical nuclear incident from the rank of Chernobyl between all nuclear operators in the world.

I find the idea excellent, but I don't think we have that level of international cooperation that will make it possible in the forseeble future.

I think my idea works ok in smaller regions like EU or North America if you dont include Chernoble type reactors and thus limit the possible damage.

Another good thing with it is that it adds a new intrest in making sure that your neighbour runs their reactor in a sensible way. It makes people running nuclear reactors keep an eye on how other operators run their reactors.

I think that this is one of the many examples of problems in which cooperation can yield much better result than competition.

However I have to be a little bit cautios as to how exactly we will implement it, so that the results will not be lifted on minus first extent. For example I can see the major players inventing such standards for joining the co-insurance league which will make only their designs and equipment salable, thus throwing out any competition and innovation in designs.

Therefore I think for it to work it must iclude all operators, regardless of place, design etc, much the same way the the whole younger generation is paying for the retirment and medical costs of the elderly. Of course there must be a provision some significant percentage (for example 20%) of the hypothetical costs to be carried by the individual countries/operators which will be enough motivation for them to strive for safe designs.

R W Reactionairy on Sat Mar 18 at 10:27 PM EST
I think Alan got this one right. The cost of fuel for a nuke is a very minor cost of production and the figurative burn is largely fixed in any event. Accordingly, there is an almost perfect inverse relationship between total output and cost per MW. Hence if at all possible, you want to run a nuke at or near designed capacity.

No, the reason you run a nuke at all times and never shut it off is that shutting a nuke off is very dangerous. Thermal shocks to a system like a nuke make leaks. You don't even want to shut off a coal burning power plant if you can avoid it. They tried doing that and it just doesn't work. Leaks always seem to occur at the most inconvenient times. You might as well just burn straight through and throw away the power.
Well, that was back when coal was cheaper.

Basically wrong.

There are quite a few inches of procedures to be followed to stop & restart a nuke, but it is NOT unsafe.

Reactionary is correct, economics (CHEAP fuel, expensive capital) make 100% load the preferred mode.  Occasionally, when the power source with the cheapest fuel (hydro) has a surplus of fuel and no place to store the excess water, they will slow down WHOOPS 2 (not enough distribution lines to take all available hydro + nuke out of area).  The French also throttle back a handful of their nukes as night (AFAIK).

To restart a steam NG plant from cols takes the equilavent of 30 minutes fuel at 100% load just to get it hot.  Coal takes even more.

Given a choice between burning coal at 3 AM and idling an NG plant, or burning NG at night and turnign of a coal plant, idle the one with the more expensive fuel.

Base load plants have thicker turbine blades at the roots (last longer at constant load), whilst peakers have thinner blades (heat & cool easier, last longer when cycled).  When the City of Astin was looking at swicthing one of their NG steam plants from base load (load with cycle between ~33% & 100%) to peaker, they planned to remachine the turbine blades at considerable expense.

Karahnjukar hydro turbines were designed for a steady load.  Very different turbines would have likely been built if it were a peaking hydro plant.

So it is not the fuel, but a number of engineering decisions that are made in design.  What works best for cycling use (on/part load/off) does not work best for steady 100% load use.  Cycling a base load plant, regardless of fuel, is just NOT a good idea.  And running a peaker at full load for 500 days straight is also not a great idea.