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they don't want to be wrong, same as the media and the politicians, because they want to maintain their supposed cred.
So ... better dead than a little less cred?
(And I thought these people knew how to multiply risk against potential gain (or more importantly, against potential loss of our entire way of life).)
Let's see:
a=Risk that PO is wrong= close to zero but still finite
b=Absolute value of loss of cred= close to zero but still finite
c=Absolute value of loss due to being unprepared for PO= Priceless
So according to the econo-heads:
a*b >> (1-a)*c
From the look and feel of his blog, he looks to me like the type of guy that might land a gig as a policy analyst in D.C. or something along those lines. He's a member of the pundit class, albeit an intelligent one. That archetype of person, be they a reactionary Bill Oreilly blowhard or a progressive with some integrity & intelligence, is as invested in "business as usual" as anybody. Thus acceptance of the logical implication sof Peak Oil (the ultimate non-business as usual scenario) is problematic.
The reationaries can always spin this in their favor quite easily saying something like, "This is why we need to take over the Mid east! You don't want those evil A-rabs to have all the oil, do you?!"
BEst,
Matt