Can I make this any simplier?  How about charts from the current This Week In Petroleum

IMPORTS go down:

DEMAND goes up:

STOCKPILES go down:

What more do you need?

You are missing the domestic production variable in the equation. My guess is that it will also be down.

The more important question I was trying to answer is why gasoline production and imports are dropping even though oil stocks are on all times high? The relation between sour/heavy and light sweet crude could be the answer.

Maybe it's just a refinery issue?  It's the time of year when they're switching over to summer blends.  Plus that Amerada Hess refinery was offline last week due to technical difficulties.