The Oil Drum

84 comments on The Megaproject update

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totoneila on April 5, 2006 - 5:47pm

Hello Westexas,

I agree with your assessment. If one assumes that nuclear war with Iran can be prevented by covert CIA/MI-6/Mossad action to foster an internal Iranian revolution to overthrow the current ruling powers, it still portends bad news for Iranian export amounts.

Consider the first graph in this link found at Energybulletin:

http://www.mees.com/postedarticles/oped/v49n14-5OD01.htm

Notice how much total Iranian production fell during the last revolution: ONE SIXTH of former output! The production recovery, although accomplished in a quick time period, only rose to 2/3 of former output. So even if we never go to war with Iran: the internal revolution will probably permanently remove any possibility of future Iranian exports as the remaining energy will be kept inside the borders! Those countries dependent on Iranian exports are probably screwed either way.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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Mad Maxout on April 6, 2006 - 11:49pm

There is a possible way to prevent having to use nukes on Iran. To generate regime change, all you need is to distribute those cartoons the Danes developed using a B-52 dropping pieces of paper, 60 tonnes worth. 4 cartoons per copier sheet but it pre-cut, the paper-bombing would result in massive unrest. Iran's government couldn't contain it. The result is severe instability.

A second idea I dreamed up is an upgrade of the Vietnam "Puff the Magic Dragon". For this, get an Airbus A380 and outfit it to carry and spray VX. You, the driver/pilot will have to wear a space suit. as you sit at its yoke. Drive/fly said plane over that road leading to Mecca during the annual pilgramage and LET THEM HAVE IT! That'll rile up EVERY moslem and generate regime change due to extreme unrest. Drive at about 300 feet up (OK, 100 metres) and spray away as you have your iPod going in your A/C helmet. Besides generating enough unrest to overwhealm Arab governments, you get to take out a bunch of terrorists.

Both cases end up being a case of "careful what you wish for, as you might just GET it!". In reality, there are really no easy solutions, like so many cases in Engineering but a lot worse off.