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51 comments on A Gentle Disagreement on Turkmen gas

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BioDiesel on April 10, 2006 - 1:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Weird, we both look at it and come to 2 completly different conclusions at the same time!

One says supply and one says demand.

I'm no expert so I must assume you are correct.

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Stuart Staniford on April 10, 2006 - 2:08am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well, that's handy.  Calculated Risk  (posting at Angry Bear) has a nice summary of Fed transcripts from May 2000, right as things were about to go South.  Here's US GDP changes:

You can see that GDP slows down really a lot in late 2000, whereas the oil production in OilCEO's graph above doesn't slow down until the end of 2000.  So GDP changes preceded oil production changes.  However, in the current case, oil production growth started to slow down in late 2004, and GDP growth was good until Q4 2005.

Hence it appears that the causality is reversed in the two cases.

We'd have to look at Asian data to see the 1998 events, but I don't have it to hand (nor time to hunt now).

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