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22 comments on BBC Newsnight mentions peak oil

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doctorbob on April 26, 2006 - 6:05am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
"they seem to have miraculously 'created' about 3 times as much oil between the 1st chart and the 2nd chart."
It's as if the fact that oil will be $75 instead of $20 will allow 100% recovery from existing fields - the "technology will solve it" approach.  Presumably the rest is 100% recovery of all tar sand, oil shale, heavy oil deposits, etc.  The problems of producing useful hydrocarbon fuels from the tar sands have been well explored on the central TOD site - huge investment, huge energy input (gas at present), huge water use, huge pollution problems.  All the indications are that it's not going to be 1/10th as big a contribution as the graphic shows.

Maybe some of these people will only take notice when these outputs simply don't materialise after conventional oil peaks.

She also said that the economy is still trundling on pretty well in spite of rising oil prices.  How long can it continue to do so when the oil price increases at 30+% per year and people are spending a big chunk of their income just driving to/from work, shops, proces of flights and public transport rocket, etc?  There must come a point where things start to break down.

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Elizaphanian on April 26, 2006 - 7:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I can't now recall where I read it (possibly Econbrowser) but isn't the US economy (and by implication, others too) floating on very low interest rates and the drawdown of housing equity etc? In other words, there has been a cushion of liquidity mitigating the impact of high oil prices. Whereas in Asia it is simply driven by the economic boom (which can sustain a regularly increasing price).

Presumably the cash injections will ease off at some point, and the recession will hit. (The alternative - Bernanke's helicopters dropping dollars - would cause a rather rapid collapse in the currency, I think)

BTW did anyone else see the article in the Sunday Telegraph discussing Russian proposals to go against the petrodollar?

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max the gasman on April 26, 2006 - 3:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There must come a point where things start to break down...

The Scotsman Newspaper

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=562192006

"She said that, with a likely continued rise in the cost of oil, small businesses could no longer sustain the additional costs.

We should be looking to the Chancellor not just for a freeze in fuel duty but a marked reduction."

(I work in a business in Edinburgh that uses pedal bikes for transport:)

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