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205 comments on Peak Oil Forum - a final comment

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westexas on May 12, 2006 - 7:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Farmland, Food & Energy, and Jay Hanson

I'm certainly no expert on food production, but it is my understanding that while organic farming can be more profitable per acre than standard farming (less use of fossil fuels & chemicals), the yield per acre is lower.  Therefore, we will need more land, using organic farming, to provide the same amount of food that we do now.  This sets up the problem of land used for food versus fuel--both food producers and fuel producers will need more land.  Of course, a lot of small "Victory Gardens" will help quite a bit.

It seems to me that we are rapidly approaching a point where most people's primary focus will be on how to pay their food and energy bills.  I wonder if the energy riots we have seen on the Indian subcontinent are a sign of things to come worldwide.  

In an interview a couple of years ago, Jay Hanson (I checked the link, and it is no longer available), said that most people are getting too hung up on the technical aspects of post-Peak Oil.  He said the key problem is how do we control men when there is no economic growth?

I have wondered for some time about Jay's choice of his retreat, the Big Island of Hawaii.  I am beginning to wonder if he chose Hawaii because he thinks that the biggest threat we face results from food and energy riots, i.e., the Pacific Ocean is one heck of a big moat.   I wonder if the Big Island could technically be food self-sufficient?

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Nate Hagens on May 12, 2006 - 8:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
He chose it because he loves it there.
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Leanan on May 12, 2006 - 8:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I wonder if the Big Island could technically be food self-sufficient?

Not with its current population.  

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Jamie on May 12, 2006 - 11:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
One question that doen't seem to get addressed is the gross over consumption of food by the developed economies. Hence we assume that the amount of food demanded is the amount needed. It is well documented that the health of the UK population improved during the rationing in WW2. I am not suggesting anything as drastic but there is certainly room for redistribution and rationalisation in the current food chain. Shock horror - Big Macs Must Go ;-)
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Lollipops on May 12, 2006 - 4:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
While the health of the UK population increased during the rationing period, that had more to do with a more equitable distribution of resources than with less food being consumed.  Pre-WWII many many of Britian's poor were unable to aquire reasonable amounts of healthy food.  Rationing was combined with the introduction of free school lunches for poor children, OJ rations for all young children, and milk and eggs for pregnant mothers.  I think that was what really impacted Britian's health.
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Dan Ur on May 12, 2006 - 9:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't go out to eat often, but when I do I notice one thing.  At the Buffets, people waste a lot of food.

I cook as a hobby, and I grow food as a hobby, and I study food plants as a hobby.  It shocks me that even those that come from low food regions in a few years of the Plenty of the US, adopt the same food habits of the Rest of the Citizens, or more accurately the wasteful folks.

 We as Americans waste a lot of Food.  We have laws in some cities that state that once its cooked and not eaten by the customer, we have to throw it out.  We have "Grand Buffets" where the left over food could feed some families for WEEKS!!  It all goes to waste!

So yeah, as the end of our "Easy Eating" Lifestyle comes to and end we will see the end of the Buffets, or at least the end of them as we now know them to be.

Hey I am moving to a small town,, How many buffets are there, I bet not a single one.  Gee I wonder why??

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Donal on May 13, 2006 - 10:37am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It isn't just buffets. Fast food restaurants throw away enormous amounts of unsold food. They usually keep enough food sitting there to fill your order immediately (unless you order something unexpected) so they can call it fast food.  Whatever isn't bought in a fairly brief period, gets tossed.
I used to volunteer at a soup kitchen, and they received  boxes and boxes of donuts that weren't quite fresh enough to meet Dunkin's standards. I wonder how many donuts Dunkin and KK toss every day
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Everett on May 12, 2006 - 2:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I disagree.   Some numbers to consider (from http://co.hawaii.hi.us/bigislandag/default.htm):

  •   500 acres produces  7 million pounds of guava
  • 2,700 acres produces 36 million pounds of papaya
  • less than 400 acres produces over 1 million pounds of taro, a traditional food of Pacific Islanders

This all sounds very productive to me. With over 60,000 acres of agricultural land being recently released from sugar cane production, farming just this land would require supporting about 3 people per acre to be self-sufficient on the Big Island.  Statements from John Jeavons indicate that biointensive farming would support over 10 people per acre sustainably.
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westexas on May 12, 2006 - 5:43pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
One of they ke advantages of Hawaii is the temperate climate.  They only use about half of the energy per capita that is used in Texas.
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mshortridge on May 12, 2006 - 2:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Westexas wrote:
"I'm certainly no expert on food production, but it is my understanding that while organic farming can be more profitable per acre than standard farming (less use of fossil fuels & chemicals), the yield per acre is lower."

I'm no expert either.  I mentioned a few days ago that I had the pleasure of hosting Joel Salatin last weekend.  He is a truely organic beef and poultry farmer in Virginia, not simply "organic" as a marketing ploy as the word has largely become.  
He convincingly explained to me his methods that are low input and high yield.  He improves his land each year and keeps a larger number of animals on his land than any of his neighbors.  The quality of life for his charges is very good as well--all free range, grass fed and "grass finished"--no feed lot time before slaughter.  The chickens follow the cattle sequentially on the same pastures, providing a more complex nutrition to the pasture grasses.  In his philosophy, the health of the pasture is what comes first and the health of the animals follows from that naturally.
So there is some hope for greater efficiency in organic methods--though it is definitely more labor intensive.
-Matt DC

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calendar on May 13, 2006 - 9:55am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"Free range" and "Organic" red meat will not save you from colon cancer. In this study, the lowest risk group of subjects got 0-30 g of red meat per day.

Meat Consumption and Risk of Colorectal Cancer
Ann Chao, PhD; Michael J. Thun, MD, MS; Cari J. Connell, MPH; Marjorie L. McCullough, ScD; Eric J. Jacobs, PhD; W. Dana Flanders, MD, ScD; Carmen Rodriguez, MD, MPH; Rashmi Sinha, PhD; Eugenia E. Calle, PhD
JAMA. 2005;293:172-182.
full paper is free but requires registration.
http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/293/2/172

The risks from very modest quantities of red meat can probably be lessened somewhat, but not completely, by a high fiber diet. From PMID 16452248: "In colonic exfoliated cells, the percentage staining positive for the NOC-specific DNA adduct, O(6)-carboxymethyl guanine (O(6)CMG) was significantly (P < 0.001) higher on the high red meat diet. In 13 volunteers, levels were intermediate on the high-fiber, high red meat diet."

It's probably not very healthy for the aquifer, either. Nitrates are usually at unaccpetable levels within several miles of animal farms.

It's not so great for other reasons as well. Land use is greater and irrigation needs are generally greater to much greater than for plant foods.

Locally grown organic legumes are a better bet.

See:
Asia Pac J Clin Nutr. 2004;13(2):217-20.    
Legumes: the most important dietary predictor of survival in older people of different ethnicities.
Darmadi-Blackberry I, Wahlqvist ML, Kouris-Blazos A, Steen B, Lukito W, Horie Y, Horie K.
http://www.healthyeatingclub.com/info/articles/diets-foods/Darmadi.pdf

It's probably not that legumes are all that. But, they have no heme iron, they are generally anticarcinogenic when cooked, they have lots of dietary fiber, and they are completely devoid of oxidized cholesterol.

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