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Texas and the Lower 48 as a Model for Saudi Arabia and the World
Khebab and I have been working on another paper. Above is a link to the graphs (all done by Khebab). The premise is quite simple. In terms of depletion, Saudi Arabia and the world are now where Texas and the Lower 48 were at in 1972 and 1970, respectively. The swing producers apparently tend to peak later than the overall regions do. However, note that Texas' decline rate has been much steeper than the Lower 48 overall.
There have only been two swing producers of any consequence, Texas and Saudi Arabia. The new "swing producer" consists of releases from emergency reserves. Note that the problem is replenishing the reserves (which Bush has already postponed).
(Higher prices don't immediately generate a recession because some regions are benefitting from the higher prices.)