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The EIA's Short Term Energy Report has a different story. They had OPEC production, crude only, at 30.16 mb/d in December and 29.78 mb/d in April, a draw-down of .38 mb/d. Ignoring the differences in amount and looking only at the total change reported by each agency, December to April, that is a discrepancy of a whopping 1.08 mb/d between the two. With such a discrepancy between these two agencies, and the IEA's habit of dramatically revising their figures month to month, can we have any confidence in any figures they put out.
On another note, the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook, has OPEC production, crude only, up 90,000 barrels per day March to April. They have Iran's output flat for that period.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/3atab.html
However MEES, (Middle East Energy Specialists) has OPEC production down 140,000 mb/d for the same period. They have Iranian production falling 420,000 barrels per day from March to April.
http://www.mees.com/Energy_Tables/crude-oil.htm
It appears there is not much certainty in what is really going on in the OPEC Oil Patch, especially in the short term.
Ron Patterson
http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-05-19-voa62.cfm
Experts Say Despite Problems, Russia Plays Constructive Role in Global Energy Market
By Barry Wood
Washington
19 May 2006
A leading Washington research organization, the American Enterprise Institute, Friday held a forum on Russia and the world energy market. VOA's Barry Wood reports that analysts believe Russia must make considerable new investments just to maintain current levels of oil and gas production.
Excerpt:
Cliff Gaddy, the Russian economy expert at Washington's Brookings Institution, worries that Russia's oil production will decline in coming years. Massive new investment, he said, is required to meet Russia's goal of maintaining and then boosting production. After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the world's biggest oil exporter. Gaddy said the world needs Russian oil.
"Just ask yourself, where would world oil prices be without these three million extra barrels a day of oil that Russia has contributed since 1999? I mean, that is a real counter-factual and a lot of other things might have happened. Maybe China wouldn't have grown as much without that oil, maybe the whole world would be in a depression, but maybe oil prices would be not $70 to $80 a barrel, but $120 a barrel, or $150 a barrel, or $200 a barrel," he said.
That's my point about "moving to the endpoints of the fossil fuel continuum," i.e., gas to liquids (GTL) and coal to liquids (CTL). We are simply talking about accelerating our rate of consumption of finite energy sources.
My continuing recommendation: abolish the Payroll (Social Secuirty + Medicare) Tax and replace it with an Energy Consumption Tax.
In any case, I had dinner last night with a senior member of the Forbes campaign (who had been a member of the Reagan Administration). She was largely Peak Oil unaware, but I pitched the Energy Tax/Abolish the Payroll Tax idea, and I think I sold her on the idea.
She said that lots of Republicans are now lamenting their choice for president and telling her that she was correct when she tried to warn them about Bush. I asked her if she could imagine George W. Bush giving Reagan's "Tear Down This Wall" Speech." She said that "George Bush probably can't spell Berlin Wall."
http://inside.c-spanarchives.org:8080/cspan/cspan.csp?command=dprogram&record=161283941
Miles per gallon is not the only measure we should observe. We need to observe passenger miles per gallon. Yes, vehicles can and should get better mileage overall, but one SUV carrying 6 people and getting 12 miles per gallon is more energy efficient than 6 Camrys getting 40 miles per gallon being driven solo. Take a sample trip of 20 miles. The SUV will expend 1.67 gallons while the 6 Camries will expend 6 * 0.5 = 3.0 gallons for covering the same distance. This is precisely why mass transit is more energy efficient than solo drivers in cars. Even though something like a train gets far lower raw MPG, it carries far more passengers and/or cargo so the total energy expended is less per passenger or cargo pound moved.
If you drive your SUV with a full or nearly full load most of the time, then you are actually helping conserve energy. It's all those solo drivers, even in their hybrid Priuses that are wasting energy.
So carpool. It's a good way to start conserving energy. It's not the ultimate solution but it's a good place to start.
This is the point I keep making to people in person--don't get caught up in the minutiae of the situation, just look for ways to minimize your monthly energy expenses. Use less (turn off lights in unused rooms, batch errands together, car pool), and use energy more efficiently (use CFL's, drive with a lighter foot), and you can save a healthy percentage of your energy bill, beginning right now, without making a major investment or change in your lifestyle.
Take an average four passenger Civic getting 32 miles per gallon. 4people X 32mpg = 128pmpg
And a large 7 passenger SUV getting 15 mpg. 7people X 15 mpg = 105pmpg
(For giggles you might also want to consider 5 people riding
in an Echo: 5people X 38mpg = 190pmpg)
First of all, with the (theoretical) vehicles at full
capacity the civic still beats out the SUV in people miles
per gallon. That could obviously flip if the SUV got better
mpg in this case, but it'd still be a close call.
Now the real problem...what's the likelyhood that you can
find 7 people all going in the same direction at the same
time? Pretty slim. How about four people going in the same
direction? Less slim, but still pretty slim I'd say. I'd
say that two people going in the same direction at the same
time is a lot more likely. So back to the math:
Civic: 2 people X 32mpg = 64pmpg
SUV: 2 people X 15mpg = 30pmpg
You somehow need to find twice as many people going in the
same direction to make the SUV match or exceed the efficiency of the smaller, better mileage car, and once you reach two people in the car (meaning four in the SUV) your likelyhood that all people are heading in the same direction at the same time decreases greatly.
As the article says, the price of oil could have been much higher without the extra Russian output since 1999. So Russia is actually hurting its own interests pumping the volumes it does. Let the Saudis try an play the game they did in the 80s and 90s.
IMO, Russia is on the verge of a catastrophic decline in oil production.
I found it interesting that Marathon is selling their Western Siberian production.
The Russian Energy Minister has warnd that, without a crash driling program in frontier areas, Russia faces the possibility of a "real collapase in oil production."
Russia's current oil consumption is about 2.5 million barrels per day. A decline in production is actually good for the country since it will prevent it from copying the US car culture deathtrap.
No argument from me. I think that it is ultimately bad for the West too.
However, we have seen three major regions peak and decline:
Texas/Lower 48/Total US in the Seventies;
Russia in the Eighties;
North Sea in the Nineties.
Based on the HL method, all peaked between about 49% and 58% of Qt. None have shown production higher than what they showed in the vicinity of 50% of Qt. Based on the HL method, Russia's rebound in production is just making up for what was not produced after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The kicker? Based on currently producing basins (I admit that frontier basins in Russia are huge unknowns, for better or worse), the HL model indicates the US has more recoverable reserves than Russia. This implies an extremely sharp decline. How sharp can declines be? Look at what the internal reports are suggesting for Cantarell (up to 40% per year).
I continue to find it very interesting that Marathon sold their Russian production.
http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/05/18/heliummoon.shtml
No need to worry.
(sarcasm)
Marathon Oil could have been harassed out of Russia. Treatment of foreign investors in the natural resource sector in that country has been attrocious.
But deliberate and planned?
I am assuming you are in Russia, please correct me if I am wrong. I sincerely hope that Russia does have the wisdom to avoid the car culture deathtrap, but please inform us if this is, in fact, official Russian policy. As I understand it now: motor vehicle sales are booming:
http://english.pravda.ru/main/18/89/357/16308_cars.html
Do the Russian media and the general public discuss Peakoil ramifications, or are most in ignorance and denial like here in the US?
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Because up to now, it's been party time.
Can you give us an assessment of the average Russian's response to Putin's proposed new birth benefits: are the people excited to pump out the newborns, or would they rather have fewer children? Thxs.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
I think there will be some short-term increase in the fertility rate, but - if the experience of all the other countries that have tried similar measures is any guide - not nearly enough.
And the other part of the demographic problem - the appallingly low male life expectancy - goes unaddressed.
It seems that the concept of PO and depletion has indeed come up in Russia. It was not clear at what level of production they were talking about - but the Russian energy minstry specifically stated they believe Mideast oil will last about 13 more years at roughly the same rate before it depletes, but Russia's supplies will last roughly 28 years.
What was supposed to happen after 13 or 28 years was not made clear. Russia was just preparing for the day when its financial windfall would run out by shifting its surpluses into Euros, gold, and even specific worldwide investments.
Unfortunately Russian policy is still dominated by monetarist dogma imposed by Yeltsin. So the car culture is growing out of control and streets in Moscow and elsewhere are becoming clogged with traffic. For a country were public transit was very, very good (e.g. you could hop on a train to go camping in the backwoods) this is idiotic. So a swift kick upside the head for this trend would be very beneficial.
A significant fall in oil production has numerous benefits. It will force the economic development away from dependence on fossil fuel extraction and sale abroad, which is seriously distorting the economy. It will force the development to make use of existing rail and public transit infrastructure and prevent all of these assets from being scrapped in the name of "progress".
As other posters have said already, awareness of peak oil is lacking since the same BS was spewed during Soviet times about vast oil resources. East and west people have been brainwashed by endless repitition of the technology will overcome nature mantra.
This situation will continue and likely get worse. So, I do not trust OPEC estimates of production at this time, even while ignoring uncertainties in the other OPEC countries.