The Oil Drum

We had the warmest winter on record in North America. Average temps were 10 degrees above normal in much of US so there was alot of natural gas left over in storage. Each year there are two high demand seasons for NG - summer and winter. Each year going forward we will run the gauntlet of risk of hot summer or cold winter. We are stuck with 30-40% depletion rates on domestic wells, Canada using more and more of her NG to fire tar sands operation, and delays and political problems with increased LNG ports.

The market doesnt work in situations like this. End users can earn a 100%+ return by buying front month NG now and storing it against Jan-Feb needs (price is over double). But there does NOT exist such storage capacity otherwise people would be doing it. NG market will continue to be just in time inventory - crisis will be here first time we have hot summer or cold winter. (Russia had a VERY cold winter this year).

The mild winter has (because of lowering NG demand) put some relief on coal/rail infrastructure and if there is alot of left over NG by summers end it will likely replace coal for power demand at the margin rather than be potentially flared (gasp!).

This is a long winded answer of saying the crisis in NG in US exists -it just has a time lag.