<DrumBeat: June 5, 2006The Oil DrumDrumbeat 2nd Monday Open Thread>

87 comments on Rick Dworsky: A Warm Bath of Energy -- Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

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Oil CEO on June 5, 2006 - 5:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
This just in

Worldwide production down 400,000 bpd in March to 84,047,000 barrels per day.

Go nuts, peaksters. The end is here.

The EIA released its monthly numbers. That's 700,000 barrels less than December, for those of you keeping track.

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creg on June 5, 2006 - 5:51pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
OIL CEO This is outta character for you! Ya giving me vthat rush/scare thingee.
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Oil CEO on June 5, 2006 - 6:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Haha. Well, when you add that 300,000 barrels in that the Saudis cut in April, we end up an even million barrels below the peak. I'm headed to the mall right now to stock up on ammunition and bottled water.
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Oilrig medic on June 5, 2006 - 6:49pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
CEO,

I don't keep track of the numbers only the concepts....what percentage of total is this?

Matt

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Oil CEO on June 5, 2006 - 7:04pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
1 million barrels is 1.2% of 84 million (total production rate).

On a serious note, I will take this opportunity in light of some of the discussion on production here today, to say that I would have expected this level of production (down so low from its highs last year) to have effected the price of oil much more than it has (which appears to be none).

Whether this is demand-softening, demand-destruction, I don't know. Maybe the Saudis are right. Maybe the numbers are screwy. Maybe it will take 6 months for the effect to come through on inventories.

In 1982 oil hit inflation adjusted highs north of $90. American expeditures on oil hit 7% of GDP that year. We are at 3.5% of GDP now. If this is really TSHTF, I'd expect a little more than $73.

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Mike A on June 5, 2006 - 7:23pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Don't want to rain on your guys parade, but shouldn't off-topic posts like this be in the drumbeat thread? Thats its purpose afterall.

And by the way... (yes I am hypocritcally adding to the off-topic conversation!!) how do you argue with cornucopians who say that production is down because "demand has dropped due to higher prices"??

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Robert Rapier on June 5, 2006 - 7:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And by the way... (yes I am hypocritcally adding to the off-topic conversation!!) how do you argue with cornucopians who say that production is down because "demand has dropped due to higher prices"??

I also hesitate to add off-topic material to a very interesting opening essay, but the Drumbeat threads are pretty large by this time of day. It's hard to have a conversation based on new news. Maybe a new thread just based on the new numbers would be in order?

Anyway, I am not a Cornucopian, but it is no suprise at all that demand was down in March. Spring turnarounds were in full swing, and refinery capacity was quite low at that time. You can see a graph of that here:

http://www.petrostrategies.org/Graphs/refineryutilization.html

But mark my words, production will climb from here for at least a bit longer. Mark that prediction down and file it away, and we can revisit it in the summer. You can call me out if I am wrong about that.

RR

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Richard on June 6, 2006 - 12:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Mike,

Please, no 'down to earth' explanations. It must be the end which is near, otherwise I read this site for nuttin'

;-)

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bradshaw on June 5, 2006 - 7:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
For those of you who want to see the EIA numbers...

EIA International Petroleum Monthly


Current World Oil Supply Excel Sheet


Enjoy :-)

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bradshaw on June 5, 2006 - 7:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Apologies for adding to the off-topic :-/
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newman1979 on June 5, 2006 - 7:57pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The EIA number is almost on the 13 month centered moving average Stuart Saniford posted on April 4,2006. Then as now, the question is whether the curve will go up or down? In the same vein, both the IEA and EIA estimates for March have overestimated the actual just released. I don't know CERA's estimate, but I would be interested to know what it was.
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