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158 comments on DrumBeat: June 10, 2006

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Richard on June 11, 2006 - 6:05am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
About Data Transparancy:

Suppose you are an oil exporting country. It't your only serious source of income. Do you want the west to have accurate numbers about the oil that is out there?

Now what is the west going to do with these numbers?

Let's make a list:

  • Develop alternative energy sources
  • Increase tax to reduce demand
  • Sync between main oil users to avoid price bidding wars
  • Develop fuel efficient technology
  • Etc, etc.

Now why on earth would you want that?

If I was an oil exporting country I would like the west to be as indecisiveness as possible for as long as possible so I could get the maximum amount of good ol' US $ for my oil. And when it's over, it's over and we all go back home.

To summarize: There is not going to be a reliable data initiative thing.

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Darwinian on June 11, 2006 - 7:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, yes, yes, but all this is the case ONLY if you are lying about your reserves. If you have plenty of oil, if you have as much oil as the EIA says you have, then you would wish this data to be made public. You would want the world to know that there is nothing to worry about.

The fact that they do not allow transparency tells me that they have something to hide.

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Richard on June 11, 2006 - 9:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I don't think so. Suppose now you have a lot of oil, and the price is 70 US$ because people are scared there isn't enough oil to go around. reliable numbers will only lower the price.

Why would you do that?

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oaksmoke on June 11, 2006 - 8:57am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Why would anyone want to trade oil for dollars? It is ridiculous for any oil exporter to maintain a trade surplus where they have to accumulate promises. Dollars can be used a medium of exchange, but oil in the ground is the best savings account. We may have had the ability 30 years ago to make a major impact with alternative energy not anymore. Simmons may want data because info is his business, but I feel this data is practically useless. It's going to be a constant battle riding the depletion curve. It is unlikely we will manage to get ahead of the curve for any long period of time. The oil exporters should be more worried about their internal consumption than exporting false data. Oil exporters have to survive on the difference of thier own depletion curve and their own consumption. There is no doubt oil's relative value will increase. Saudi Arabia will more power to influence prices than ever before.
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Richard on June 11, 2006 - 9:32pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Maybe there is nothing wrong with the US$ (bit overvalued, but not by much) and maybe the people living in the M.E. also have to eat?
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