<DrumBeat: June 16, 2006The Oil DrumDrumBeat: June 17, 2006>

42 comments on Consumption Winners and Losers

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Marotti32 on June 16, 2006 - 2:59am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
It's surprising to me, that India's consumption obviously decreased by more than 3%. In the media, it is always mentioned the increasing consumption in China and India is one of the driving forces for higher oil prices.

India's growth in GDP is around 7%. Maybe the reason is, India's economic growth is more based on computer services. Whereas China is more the producing place.

I will be interesting to see if this trend will continue. I presume oil consumption in India will increase again.

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TI on June 16, 2006 - 4:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
India is using lot of oil for electricity generation. Almost every (60%) company has its own generator in the backyard as a backup. Increased coal and gas power generation has diminished oil use for these purposes. Coal and natural gas production is growing there, so is coal imports. Rising crude prices have no doubt caused some substitution of oil in non-transport use.
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jkissing on June 16, 2006 - 9:16am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
A couple of years ago teh Phillipines reduced oil consumption for similar reasons - new large electric power plants displaced huge numbers of small diesel electric generators previously needed because electricity had been unreliable. China is in a similar situation, their diesel use might soon decline as their gasoline use continues to increase.
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learning on June 17, 2006 - 4:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Tertzakian (author of A Thousand Barrels a Day) calculated "Oil Dependency Factors" for leading economies. India and China topped the list at 94 and 90 respectively with the US at 45. Japan, Germany, Russia, Italy, and UK were all less than zero. Based on BP data for 2004-2005 for consumption and World Bank GDP 2004 / IMF GDP 2005 "estimate" India and US were less than zero and China was approaching zero. This is of course one year of change and may or may not be sustainable. Tertzakian has a chart for the US of the relationship between GDP and Oil Consumption (p. 105) that is remarkable in showing the response of the US economy to the spike in oil prices in 1979. It would be interesting to look at such a chart updated for 2005 for all the leading economies.
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Oil CEO on June 17, 2006 - 8:28pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Sadly these facts and analysis are consistently overlooked in the myopic rush to see every bit of news as proof that peak oil is happening right now, to bend every theory to that conclusion, and to only consider worst case scenarios.
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