The Oil Drum

83 comments on DrumBeat: June 18, 2006

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Freddy Hutter on June 18, 2006 - 12:52pm

Somebody is very wrong. Using your same definitions, ASPO shows the divergance as 16-mbd in 2010, not 6-mbd.

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Oil CEO on June 18, 2006 - 1:00pm

Freddy, it's June 18th, 2006. I think. I'm not trying to predict the future. I added the trendlines for visual effect. The numbers are EIA's historical data, not projections.

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Substrate on June 19, 2006 - 12:39am

Actually... just eyeballing it, there appears to be a roughly 5 year doubling period, with approx 4mbpd difference at 2005...so by 2010 just blindly following the trendline would find the difference at 8mbpd. Then add back in the 7.5mbpd that you originally took out for visualization's sake... 8 + 7.5 = 15.5mbpd. Which is pretty close to Freddy's ASPO number of 16mbpd.

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nero on June 19, 2006 - 1:22am

There is nothing to hint that this might increase exponentially so the application of a doubling time is highly suspicious.

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Substrate on June 19, 2006 - 2:17am

You say potato, I say potato...(ok, so that doesn't exactly work in text)

It's a nomenclature snafu and quick writing. I was simply after the fact that 5 more years from 2005 (aka 2010) that by following the trend line, the number will have doubled (from 4 to 8mbpd). Also that Oil CEO had artificially closed the gap in 1995 by 7.5mbpd. So adding the trendline number and the artificial gap closing number, it comes CEFGW to the ASPO number, whether that means anything or not.

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