272 comments on Inflationary Collapses, or The NPV of Grandchildren
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272 comments on Inflationary Collapses, or The NPV of Grandchildren
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I suppose that Green party members are trying to develop values close to Tolkein's ideal, but they are only 5% of the population. The other 95% just want to buy stuff.
I did read somewhere that he grew up in a village which he saw literally turned into "dark satanic mills" when he returned to it. I in my lifetime have seen ecosystems trashed, just in the space of a few years of my childhood.
Sigh. It's mostly down to overpopulation isn't it?
Looks like the decision is being made for me, but it looks like I'll be Poweringdown quite a bit. First looking for an old Volvo 240 wagon or old Toyota van and the Prius gets sold - there goes a lot of debt. Also to look into renting either a storage space or a small "R&D" office, that means the kind you can run a drill press in. Will cost less than 1/2 times what this apartment will. Officially at least, I'll sleep in the car/van. Got a LOT of stuff to just plain sell, just plain get rid of. No more on-line sales, no more feeding that vampire. The most "industrial" I'll be is taking stuff to the swapmeets locally and selling it. You know, bag up useful stuff like ring lugs and mic connectors, etc and sell for $1 each. What I really want to do is work on artist skills, paper 'n' Conte crayon, technology hundreds of years old or really, thousands. Ultimate desired end result would be I guess, to do without a car entirely and live in a cheep place and just draw, caricatures and cartoons for magazines and stuff like that, the odd sign. And have expenses down far enough so I can live OK that way, or go wash windows and live OK also. But one thing at a time. This isn't even my choice, Ebay/net/computer/credit cards etc are going through their own Tainterish collapse for me right now, and I may only be 6 mos. ahead, a vanguard of large numbers of Tainterish collapses for a lot of people.
So yeah, I'm thinking Tolkian is right on the button right now.
There's no real "journeyman" training in art in the US, it's the plaything of the rich and distrusted by most nose-to-the-grindstone Americans. I was destined to become an artist, but my family crashed from middle class to welfare-class and art was just not trusted.
But no one ever got tired of looking at their own ugly mug!
If you've been around a bit, even the most bone-headed person can see that the present work-til-you-drop way of life is a scam. Most Americans are dropping dead before they ever collect Social Security, it's the top quintile, maybe the top two, living to collect. And everything else in the slush fund goes for .... I dunno, black helicopters or something.
It's looking good, get an old volvo and a shop, and stop spending so damned much money to make a little money. Instead, spend next to no money to make a little money.
If I keep going the way I've been, I'm going to have a heart attack and I'll have to gear way down anyway.
The value a society places on something is neither an economic or a technological decision - it is a human one.
The first of the four, The Hobbit comes across more as a kid's story, and indeed, Tolkien wrote it for his kids in 1936, but it reads well for adults and provides a good prequel, making it easier to get into the main story of The Lord of the Rings.
Tolkien himself apparently always insisted that his sole purpose was to tell a rattling good yarn, and he specifically disavowed any perceived parables or metaphors that anyone might read into the tale. I don't think many believe this, and considering the time it was written, which included the World War II era, (the tale was reworked and evolved even as it was being written; the whole thing took about 20 years following the publication of The Hobbit) it's easy to identify Sauron with Hitler, etc. And in that light, the book's stark rendering of good vs evil makes sense. For in World War II, there was no question as to where the evil lay. And it was evil, beyond the usual depredations of various despots past and present.
Antoinetta III
Actually, the Green Party is not in favour of anything like Tolkien's vision. While they no doubt like the sustainable part of the vision, they also want to keep our current electoral "democratic" type of politics. In fact, they complain that it is not democratic enough. Unfortunately, democracy is very "me" oriented, and leads to short-term thinking, and therefore the pressure to clear-cut or otherwise trash the property for a quick profit come to the fore. Democracy and sustainability are inherently incompatable and can only co-exist until the unsustainability eventually causes the democratic political and economic system to collapse. The question then is, of course, will the planet be so badly trashed at this point that will we have the ability to rebuild any sort of decent existance even when a sustainable, hereditary system returns after the house of cards of our current democratic system has collapsed.
Antoinetta III
It's like Goritsas said in a post further downthread, hereditary institutions have a vested interest in long-term sustainability, and others don't. A monarch will be inclined to think twice over some scheme that will have a short-term positive aspect but also negatives that might not be obvious until a generation into the future. The monarch knows that s/he, or her/his immediate descendants will have to deal with whatever problems crop up after a decade or more, the elected politicians, who generally morph into the puppets of those with the organization and resources that "game" our system operate under no such constraint. Likewise, a farmer is going to try to avoid overworking/depleting his land, if he knows his kids are going to need it in productive shape if they are to eat. So its not only a monarchy per se that's required for long-term thinking, but a hereditary principle in society generally. If a real estate industry exists, anyone who sells their property has no concern about the viability or health of that property once its sold and the money is in the seller's pocket.
Antoinetta III
Good insightful analysis. Thank you.
To summarize: there are different kinds of "valuations" in a "Democracy" / "Capitalist Market" system:
- Short term return on invenstment (ROI) to current incumbents / renters of the office / property, and
- Long term costs to all future holders/renters of the office or property.
The short-termers ignore or "externalize" the long term cost items (#2) because they will have skiddadled and will be distanced or disassaciated from the long term costs when finally TSHF. Therfore the short-termers "account" only for the short term factors.What this says is that in 1973, Peak Oil was a long-term problem which the short-termers (politicians) could conveniently ignore. As the time to impact shortens, it becomes more and more difficult for the system to remain in denial. But then again, we are a resourceful species. We will come up with ever more clever ways to deny. In that I have faith. Uggh.
Democracy doesn't imply 2 party politics, 4 year terms or time limits on what leaders can do, and I think you could argue that the American constitution actually has too many checks and balances in that vein. For instance England has no time limit on how long leaders can remain for and yet it's also a stable democracy. In fact you can have democracy with no political parties at all!
I'm also sceptical of "the masses" being stupid and short sighted. Maybe people vote for short-term-ism because that's the only thing they're being offered. You say "nobody votes for leaner times" but that's a self fulfilling prophecy: nobody can vote for it if no party is offering it.
At the last election I wanted to vote green, but couldn't because there was no candidate in my area. So I ended up voting Lib Dem, a party with no really notable policies :(
A number of points in your posting:
Elected government, unfortunately, involves a rather complex and expensive process. It responds, not to the real overall "will of the people", but to those best constituted to pressure it. This essentially requires two things, organizational capacity and money, the latter mostly to finance the hugely expensive campaigns for the various offices. And who already has a huge head-start with this? Well, those who are already organized, even if influencing the government was not their original purpose, and those who already have access to large amounts of cash. These are corporations, of course, who find it relatively easy to divert a bit of their attention away from whatever they are selling and making money on and to lobbying the government on their behalf. Their ability to provide the funding (or to deny it) to politicians for the spin doctors and sloganeers campaigning requires directly influences what positions and policies both candidates and incumbents will adopt. The only non-corporate interest groups tend to be those of the one-issue fanatics, the partizans on either side of the abortion, death penalty, affirmative action, etc. debates, issues which have been going on all or most of my life (I'm 54) and which our democracy seems unable to resolve, as the losers at any one turn simply retreat, re-organize, and keep pushing the issue.
Ultimately, the complexity of democratic systems means that these above lobbyists etc, learn how to "game" the system to get what they want. The vast majority of people do not follow politics in any kind of depth as their lives focus almost exclusively on the minutiae of daily life; get up in the morning, get something to eat, get the kids off to school, get to work, then come home and eat dinner, while somewhat listening to the crap on Fox News. Since only about half the people even bother to vote, and the vast majority of those who do, do so based on gut "feelings" derived from the newspaper headlines and TV news, "gaming" the system is not all that hard to do; marketeers and admen have long ago made a science of it. Political campaigns have devolved essentially into duels between competing groups of the above marketeers and admen, devoid of real substance, focussing instead on the emotional hot-button issue stuff which will become increasingly irrelevant as the world gets to the top of Hubbert's Peak and continues the trip down the other side. And, I suspect, a political platform offering a long range viewpoint, and "lean times" isn't on the ballot because pretty much anyone out to get elected considers this a big loser.
Its not that people are stupid (I never said this) but their focus and attention is elsewhere. Those of us who participate on The Oil Drum aren't necessarily "smarter" than anyone else, but, in our own way, we are part of an "elite." Just the fact that we are here indicates that we are "plugged in" to what's going on in the political world far more than the general populace. And I doubt the total number of participants on all the political web-logs combined come to more than two or three percent of the electorate; out votes are overwhelmed by those of the masses not so politically aware.
Antoinetta III Posted on The Oil Drum on 7-2-2006
I think it should be noted that just because someone writes something in a story, that doesn't mean they necessarily believe it would work in the real world. So, we have no idea what Tolkein really thought was the ideal government for the real world (unless he wrote it down somewhere outside his books).
But the idea of a perfect heriditary power structure with enlightened rulers simply doesn't work in the real world. If it did, we'd have achieved it long ago, but the fact is, on the whole, monarchies tended to be quite less than idea.
I would say that Tolkein's depiction of the elven society might be considered an idealistic fantasy: what might be possible in a perfect situation, with a benevolent ruler, and where everyone in society was of like mind about everything. That doesn't mean it's a true blue print for the real world. Incidentally, consider that if everyone in society is really of like mind, the form of government becomes irrelevant. A democracy could work as well as an enlightened despot in that situation, because both will come to the same conclusion.
I have to say, I think this is one of the biggest dangers of reading too much into a fantasy novel, or indeed a fiction novel of any type. It is a construct of a person's imagination, and what works in such a constructed world may not be accurate of how things work in the real world (although I do think the best storytellers do try to achieve such realism).
It's can be a grave mistake to cross the line from thinking something is a good story, to thinking it can give you 100% accurate insight into human psychology, or tell you how you should go about living your life. In the end whatever is written in a fiction story is the opinion of the author, and you can often end up with works where the conclusions are simply completely false (Lord of the Flies, for one, and then there's Crichton's novel about Global Warming being a farce).
When it comes to Tolkein's novels in particular, I would suggest that their inherent black and whiteness prevents them from accurately reflecting the imperfect shades of gray, which comprise the nitty gritty of human existence. That doesn't mean they are bad stories, it simply means it's the wrong source to use as a guide for human government and society.
I would say the true value of all literature is in making us think about things. So, there is no harm in thinking about the message Tolkein might be presenting with his elven society. But part of thinking is also rejecting ideas that are clearly outlandish and which would not work in the real world.