<DrumBeat: July 6, 2006The Oil DrumThe Rupture Index *>

19 comments on Norway and the Parabolic Fractal Law

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Khebab on July 6, 2006 - 5:29pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Very good comment! below the result of two separate HL on the top 5 fields and the rest:

HL big fields:

Q(2005)= 10.8 Gb (  89.4 % of the URR)
URR= 12.124 Gb
k=  21.4 %
Peak date= 1995
Q(1995)=  6.418 Gb (52.937% of the URR)

HL small fields:

Q(2005)= 8.4 Gb ( 66.3 % of the URR)
URR= 12.639
k=  22.5 %
Peak date= 2002
Q(2002)=  6.420 Gb (50.797% of the URR)

Clearly production have been maintained by the 42 smallest fields that contains 50% of the URR. The contribution from the top 5 has peaked in 1995 whereas the small fields contribution has peaked in 2002. I'm surprised that the decline rates are similar (~22%).

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Euan Mearns on July 6, 2006 - 6:03pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks Khebab, a trult amazing swift response.  So the top 5 fields peak around 1994 (lets say thats 2006 for KSA) what happens to the sum of the two logistics if you then slide the 42 smallest fields to the right to start producing around 1995 for Norway that's plus 18 years?  In KSA they may just start to think about all the rest next year.

Very interesting to see that the 42 smallest fields reach a peak that is just marginally higher than the 5 biggest.  This I think is a good thing.  If KSA do indeed have 42± smaller fields to develop (in their size scale) then is it possible that KSA may have a second peak in 25 years time?

There's no doubt that KSA will have a large number of undeveloped fields - p 33 of Twilight shows some of these.  It will require a huge amount of cash and effort to develop them.  This may have no impact on peak oil but may have a profound impact on the shape of the down curve.

PS its 11 o'clock here in Aberdeen and I'm off trout fishing in Norway tomorrow and am not back till Tuesday.

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Luis de Sousa on July 8, 2006 - 2:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thank you guys for these post/comments!

I just continue to be baffled by the numbers coming out of these posts. Besides of the mystic 0.07, now that equal K for the big and smaller fields.

The equal K must be a symptom of a fractal phenomenon. The smaller fields behave just like the big ones!

Had we field by field data for KSA, we could get a pretty good idea of what the production of smaller fields will look like.

All in all I think KSA will yield a future production graph over time like that of the UK, with a primary peak followed by a second. In the UK this was due to two separate discovery cycles; in KSA this will be due to two development cycles.

The result - KSA peaked in 1980 and that's it.

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Khebab on July 8, 2006 - 5:25pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You're right, the fact that the two logistic curves have the same shape is surprising. I still don't know exactly what to think of it yet!
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Don Sailorman on July 11, 2006 - 11:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
i DON'T find it the least bit surprising.

Why not?

See my comments on figuring telescope mirrors elsewhere.

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