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55 comments on The Rupture Index *

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Agric on July 6, 2006 - 9:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
About 30% increase per year for oil price, cuts $200 / bbl line by about 2011.

What do you mean by 'rupture' in "For peak oil I'm assuming the price of Oil doubles every two years lets say that gives us four years before rupture." ? and what might be the implication / effect of 'rupture'?

I think the Arctic is projected to be summer ice free by about 2010. Year round ice free Arctic won't be far behind.

However, situations are more complex: multiple positive and negative feedback loops are in effect, the resultant is perhaps a delicate balance of competing loops, a tiny difference here and there could become profound in a decade or two.

If business as (near) usual is the objective we have already well passed the time of response to peak oil. We are well into the catastrophic effect avoidance time and eating it fast. Yum.

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memmel on July 6, 2006 - 10:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

By ruputure its the point at which the oil base economy starts breaking down. It would be a combination of war and major depression this is probably somewhere around the 200+ dollars a barrel.

The current predictions for a ice free artic are within 100 years.

http://www.livescience.com/environment/050823_ice_free.html

My assertion is that once a strong feedback loop sets in it will be much sooner, 2030 with the simple metric that the amount of ice lost doubles in ten years.

Positive feedback loops have a nasty effect of soon swamping other mechanisms.

I propose that in both cases peak oil and the Arctic we have already entered positive feedback scenarios.

In the case of peak oil its triggered by the peak of light sweet oil and the "refinery" depletion factor of 25% for replacing with heavy sour grades that greatly magnified the effects of depletion beyond most estimates.

In the case of the arctic the magnifier is simple mechanical break up of ice that's not modeled. Indeed in the collapse of the one antarctic ice sheet mechanical failure prevailed.

In both cases the biggest factor for acceleration into a non-linear or positive feedback condition has been and unmodeled but significant non-linear factor.

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memmel on July 7, 2006 - 12:01am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

The two kill links on the web for global warming.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

I watch the artic melt everyday.

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Agric on July 7, 2006 - 4:06am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think you could be correct that we are in the very early stages of dominant positive feedback loops for both CC and PO. In the case of PO it could be the incentive to constrain production.
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smekhovo on July 7, 2006 - 9:44am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
With China's CO2 emissions increasing at 15% per year, don't look for a change in that trend.
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