In a 11/1/04 Forbes column, Yergin was quoted as predicting that oil prices on 11/1/05 would be at $38 per barrel. Yergin spoke pretty dismissively of Peak Oil concerns. (Note that oil prices crossed the $60 mark prior to the hurricanes.)
I don't feel that Yergin gets sufficient credit for doing so much over the past few years to (effectively) encourage Americans to continue buying and driving large SUV's to and from large mortgages.
When the near month contract crosses the $76 level, i.e., two times $38 (either intraday or closing), I propose that we designate that day as "Daniel Yergin Day," in honor of Dan's encouragement of so many American's descents into future bankruptcies.
I also propose a new unit of oil price measurement, a "Yergin," or an incremental increase of $38 per barrel. So, at $76, we would be at two "Yergins."
I keep wondering why the MSM continues to seek out Yergin's opinions when they are constantly proving to be false. Same with Steve Forbes. I said in an earlier writing here in TOD that I'd rather trust my own instincts than listen to these charlatans. And guess what? I am consistently proving myself correct. They are consistently wrong. Imagine that!
I think it's as simple as these guys having the time and money to be available for TV. How many people can be a "reliable guest" ready to hop on a plane?
Indeed, the mainstream media (and I've noticed this particularly on the Lehrer Report0 appears to have a more or less fixed stable of 'experts' on various topics that they draw upon to comment on various news developments as the need arises.
As best I can tell, the main criteria for becoming such a TV expert is i) experience in a high-visibility position in either government or academia, ii) being articulate and reasonably photogenic on TV, and iii) a committment not to say anything too extreme or too divergent from the current 'received wisdom'.
When there is a panel of such people, the atmosphere is generally very chummy, with very little open discord. I recall one rather well-regarded military expert who was on the Lehrer Report during the early days of the Iraq occupation. He said something that went totally against the grain of the other experts and did so quite vehemently. I have not seen him back on the program since.
When looking at this issue, the only thing you need to know is that, first and foremost, TV is entertainment.
In Hindi, a "pandit" is someone who has learned and memorized the Rig Vedas and Upanishads well enough that he can be called upon to recite the right sections for weddings, funerals, et cetera.
Hence the modern expression "pundit." Yergin is the best example of a mass media pundit, but if you'll pardon a ribald touch, it seems to me the book he recites from is the Kama Sutra.
Yergin wrote a fairly competent work of popular history, then decided it could be turned into a franchise which would make him money with no thought.
Forbes seems to be good for absolutely nothing.
LOL, when Santa Claus makes himself available for interview the media will jump at it, they would be silly not to. It keeps the children happy, even if the older ones know it's a sham.
Besides, if the MSM saw the reality that you and I foresee, they would know their days are numbered and have to rush to the toilet.
I'll join a Google Bomb effort. The link text would obviously be "Daniel Yergin Day" ... though it would be nice to point to a little essay someone has written on the subject.
I don't think there's any need for a Google bomb for Daniel Yergin Day. It would probably pop to the top of the listings using Google's normal algorithm.
You actually almost had a great freudian slip/typo. Maybe we should call it Denial Yergin Day. But it wouldn't get any hits (although how common is any search for Yergin?).
I'll guess I write something along the lines of Heinberg's open letter to Greg Palast.
It looks like Dan is safe today. The EIA natural gas report seems to be pulling down oil prices somewhat.
Don't forget CERA's testimony in front of a congressional committee in December, 2005, to the effect that they don't believe that we are near the peak. I thought that the timing was interesting--exactly when Deffeyes was predicting that we crossed the 50% of Qt mark.
I think this Google Bomb business may explain a recent e-mail I got. I used to to be the #1 Google return on a bunch of common searches of alternative energy terms. I have noticed that now, I have dropped off the first page for some of these terms.
Right after that happened, I got an e-mail entitled "Your web site has DROPPED out of the Search Engines!". It was full of multi-colored font, bolding, and lots of emphatic text. They explained that they can fix this problem for $100. It reminded me of a mob protection racket. I couldn't figure out how (or if) they had manipulatd my site, but it would have certainly been feasible using Google Bombs.
Google bombs used to be harmless fun. In the old days. Now a similar technique is used by spammers, and google is in a war of countermeasures with them. Basically google has to change their alorithyms to exclude linkages that look fake.
I think the "honest" way to do it is to create content (Google likes content, paragraphs of text at the source and destination end), and each of us link to a Westexas essay on "key words" from our own essays (with a different name, but with "key words" in the link).
What are the search terms they did? Bear in mind that "get your site high on google" is a common form of spam; the change in ranking and the email may have been a co-incidence.
They may have also been deploying 301 Redirects against you, though I thought that problem had been solved by now.
Haha! I think we should call it "Double Yergin Day" for emphasis. Did Yergin specify in the article whether the 11/1/05 price of $38 would be intraday or closing? BTW, what was the price on 11/1/05? What will be the price on 11/1/06?
I was going to suggest that "Yergin" be made a verb
yer-gin Audio pronunciation of "yergin" ( P ) Pronunciation Key (yr·gn)
tr.v. yer·gin·ed, yer·gin·ing, yer·gin·s
1. To be blithely reassuring but opaque: A great effort was made to yergin the situation.
2. To render complacent: His article yergined the public outcry.
3. (astronomy) To report a UFO.
In April 2005:
"And with markets this tight, you'll see a lot more volatility, and you could see prices spike up as high as $65 to $80. How high they go depends on geopolitics and market psychology."
I think he has made more critical errors in judgement,such as:
"By the time oil production plateaus, he says, ''I think we'll be driving cars that get 110 miles to the gallon, 120 miles to the gallon." To assume we won't be able to adjust in time, Yergin says, ''means you think the technological revolution that began in the 18th century is going to end." http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2006/02/26/oil_futures/?page=full
I think an interesting post here would be for someone to really look at all his predictions vs. current reality.
Dan is a one man wrecking machine. So, when will we hit 3 Yergins? Recent price rises seem tied to nothing but tightness of supply. I believe the "concerns" about Iran are not driving the price. That is not to say I dismiss the possibility of a catastrophic outcome there. In fact, I think it has a probability over 50%. These neocons will be in power for only another 18 months. That's their window of opportunity for ruining the world. If they bomb or allow Israel to bomb, they can trot out Karl Rove's favorite trick one more time -- wrapping yourself in the flag and calling anyone who criticizes you unpatriotic if not treasonous.
Danny boy reassuring us all the time lays out happy scenarios that help pave the way for irresponsible geopolitical actions. Unlike you or me, he is well paid for his statements.
Einstein:
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe".
Bertrand Russell:
"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do."
and for some examples, from Tom Delay:
"Guns have little or nothing to do with juvenile violence. The causes of youth violence are working parents who put their kids into daycare, the teaching of evolution in the schools, and working mothers who take birth control pills. [on causes of the Columbine High School massacre, 1999]".
Daniel Yergin:
"The interdependence of producer and consumer is evident with LNG - the resources flowing out are balanced by the financial liquidity they give companies".
Of this last quote, this is a novel interpretation of the relationship between the drug supplier (Qatar) and the drug addict (America). In mental health programs, they take the opposite approach: cure the addition.
and for some examples, from Tom Delay:
"Guns have little or nothing to do with juvenile violence. The causes of youth violence are working parents who put their kids into daycare, the teaching of evolution in the schools, and working mothers who take birth control pills.
I know this is an oil site -- but how can anyone take Republicans seriously when they spew out crap like this?
Evolution in school?
Working mothers taking birth control causes crime?
This is what's wrong with America -- abstract, non-empirical, ideological 'faith' trumping reason.
Only the supremely powerful can afford to ignore reality or afford to use faith, secular or religious, instead of reason when making decisions. How much power and how many resources will we waste trying to prove 'faith' is more powerful than reason?
>I don't feel that Yergin gets sufficient credit for doing so much over the past few years to (effectively) encourage Americans to continue buying and driving large SUV's to and from large mortgages.
I don't believe Yergin has any influence over American consumption, but histortically low interest rates most certainly did.
We are almost certainly now behind peak production. Global production has been steadly declining about 100,000 b/d every month. I seriously doubt that the new projects coming will be able to exceed declines. The existing field production declines will accelerate as will nationation of oil and gas assets.
Since were are already past the curve is pointless to enlighten the masses of the pending crisis. It would be far better to make your own preprations before time runs out and hell breaks loose rather than gamble on some gov't level effort to address the issue.
Once the world recognizes PO, exporters will almost certainly end or radically reduce exports to save their remain reserves for domestic use or to stretch out exports for trade. To believe that that the US or any country could initiate an manhattan/apollo scale project to address the issue is silly. There no longer remain sufficient resources to make long term preparations. When the crisis begins global stability will fall off the deep end as people and gov't panic over what to do and finger pointing becomes the norm. We have already seen the smoke, Nationalization of energy assets in Russia, and South America, China locking up energy with long term contracts, declining production at all the largest fields. It won't be too long before we start to see some flames.
American consumption, but histortically low interest rates most certainly did.
So the Russian need for hard currency and the Saudi's flooding hte market driving down oil prices had NOTHING to do with the present consumption patterns?
It would be far better to make your own preprations before time runs out and hell breaks loose rather than gamble on some gov't level effort to address the issue.
Standard advice. If you prepare too well, the sniper with a .50 cal can and will take 'em from you however.
To believe that that the US or any country could initiate an manhattan/apollo scale project to address the issue is silly.
Which issue? Production, consumption, the money systerm, government level of spending.....So many issues are tied together, its not as simple as 'cheap money', lack of the currency being backed by anyhting,
Standard advice. If you prepare too well, the sniper with a .50 cal can and will take 'em from you however.
thats a tough balancing act.
to be prepared enough to survive but not too well to become a target of not only hungry people but the government needing to get a hold of resources or to dispose of possible threats.
In terms of preparation, it is hard to beat a quad fifty mounted on a deuce-and-a-half. Really, I do not have one of these in my barn. I do not have the field and technical manuals. I was NOT trained by a Korean War vet in how to use a quad fifty to take out low-flying aircraft or to dig through earthworks and vacuum out hillsides of all living mammels.
Everything I tell you is true.
But you already knew that.
Every day in every way, I am becoming better prepared. As are all my family members . . . .
"I don't feel that Yergin gets sufficient credit for doing so much over the past few years to (effectively) encourage Americans to continue buying and driving large SUV's to and from large mortgages."
This has to be a joke. What percentage of people buying an SUV in the US has ever heard of Yergin or was familiar with his prognostications, even without attaching them to his name? One tenth of one percent? Less?
There are WAY more important things we can be doing aside from chasing people like Yergin in circles.
In a 11/1/04 Forbes column, Yergin was quoted as predicting that oil prices on 11/1/05 would be at $38 per barrel. Yergin spoke pretty dismissively of Peak Oil concerns. (Note that oil prices crossed the $60 mark prior to the hurricanes.)
I don't feel that Yergin gets sufficient credit for doing so much over the past few years to (effectively) encourage Americans to continue buying and driving large SUV's to and from large mortgages.
When the near month contract crosses the $76 level, i.e., two times $38 (either intraday or closing), I propose that we designate that day as "Daniel Yergin Day," in honor of Dan's encouragement of so many American's descents into future bankruptcies.
I also propose a new unit of oil price measurement, a "Yergin," or an incremental increase of $38 per barrel. So, at $76, we would be at two "Yergins."
Indeed, the mainstream media (and I've noticed this particularly on the Lehrer Report0 appears to have a more or less fixed stable of 'experts' on various topics that they draw upon to comment on various news developments as the need arises.
As best I can tell, the main criteria for becoming such a TV expert is i) experience in a high-visibility position in either government or academia, ii) being articulate and reasonably photogenic on TV, and iii) a committment not to say anything too extreme or too divergent from the current 'received wisdom'.
When there is a panel of such people, the atmosphere is generally very chummy, with very little open discord. I recall one rather well-regarded military expert who was on the Lehrer Report during the early days of the Iraq occupation. He said something that went totally against the grain of the other experts and did so quite vehemently. I have not seen him back on the program since.
When looking at this issue, the only thing you need to know is that, first and foremost, TV is entertainment.
Hence the modern expression "pundit." Yergin is the best example of a mass media pundit, but if you'll pardon a ribald touch, it seems to me the book he recites from is the Kama Sutra.
Forbes seems to be good for absolutely nothing.
How do you get filthy rich ? Ya gotta "climb every Malcom, Forbes every stream....."
Besides, if the MSM saw the reality that you and I foresee, they would know their days are numbered and have to rush to the toilet.
Westexas can write the essay, to be posted here or at EnergyBulletin, and we can link to it.
"Results 1 - 10 of about 47 for danial yergin day. (0.54 seconds)"
Since "daniel yergin day" only has 47 results, I think it can be leveraged.
Me.
This is what it finds:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/5/1/181751/9406
It looks like Dan is safe today. The EIA natural gas report seems to be pulling down oil prices somewhat.
Don't forget CERA's testimony in front of a congressional committee in December, 2005, to the effect that they don't believe that we are near the peak. I thought that the timing was interesting--exactly when Deffeyes was predicting that we crossed the 50% of Qt mark.
Right after that happened, I got an e-mail entitled "Your web site has DROPPED out of the Search Engines!". It was full of multi-colored font, bolding, and lots of emphatic text. They explained that they can fix this problem for $100. It reminded me of a mob protection racket. I couldn't figure out how (or if) they had manipulatd my site, but it would have certainly been feasible using Google Bombs.
Cheers,
RR
I think the "honest" way to do it is to create content (Google likes content, paragraphs of text at the source and destination end), and each of us link to a Westexas essay on "key words" from our own essays (with a different name, but with "key words" in the link).
(There are other ways to change your Google Rank using your own page design. Those $100 guys might be selling a site overhaul. Wikipedia has a good page on Google Rank and how it works.)
They may have also been deploying 301 Redirects against you, though I thought that problem had been solved by now.
I was going to suggest that "Yergin" be made a verb
yer-gin Audio pronunciation of "yergin" ( P ) Pronunciation Key (yr·gn)
tr.v. yer·gin·ed, yer·gin·ing, yer·gin·s
1. To be blithely reassuring but opaque: A great effort was made to yergin the situation.
2. To render complacent: His article yergined the public outcry.
3. (astronomy) To report a UFO.
-C.
http://www.time.com/time/globalbusiness/article/0,9171,1050297-1,00.html
In April 2005:
"And with markets this tight, you'll see a lot more volatility, and you could see prices spike up as high as $65 to $80. How high they go depends on geopolitics and market psychology."
I think he has made more critical errors in judgement,such as:
"By the time oil production plateaus, he says, ''I think we'll be driving cars that get 110 miles to the gallon, 120 miles to the gallon." To assume we won't be able to adjust in time, Yergin says, ''means you think the technological revolution that began in the 18th century is going to end."
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2006/02/26/oil_futures/?page=full
I think an interesting post here would be for someone to really look at all his predictions vs. current reality.
Dan is a one man wrecking machine. So, when will we hit 3 Yergins? Recent price rises seem tied to nothing but tightness of supply. I believe the "concerns" about Iran are not driving the price. That is not to say I dismiss the possibility of a catastrophic outcome there. In fact, I think it has a probability over 50%. These neocons will be in power for only another 18 months. That's their window of opportunity for ruining the world. If they bomb or allow Israel to bomb, they can trot out Karl Rove's favorite trick one more time -- wrapping yourself in the flag and calling anyone who criticizes you unpatriotic if not treasonous.
Danny boy reassuring us all the time lays out happy scenarios that help pave the way for irresponsible geopolitical actions. Unlike you or me, he is well paid for his statements.
Einstein:
"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe".
Bertrand Russell:
"Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do."
and for some examples, from Tom Delay:
"Guns have little or nothing to do with juvenile violence. The causes of youth violence are working parents who put their kids into daycare, the teaching of evolution in the schools, and working mothers who take birth control pills. [on causes of the Columbine High School massacre, 1999]".
Daniel Yergin:
"The interdependence of producer and consumer is evident with LNG - the resources flowing out are balanced by the financial liquidity they give companies".
Of this last quote, this is a novel interpretation of the relationship between the drug supplier (Qatar) and the drug addict (America). In mental health programs, they take the opposite approach: cure the addition.
later, Dave
What are we going to do when it turns out our dealer is dry?
"Guns have little or nothing to do with juvenile violence. The causes of youth violence are working parents who put their kids into daycare, the teaching of evolution in the schools, and working mothers who take birth control pills.
I know this is an oil site -- but how can anyone take Republicans seriously when they spew out crap like this?
Evolution in school?
Working mothers taking birth control causes crime?
This is what's wrong with America -- abstract, non-empirical, ideological 'faith' trumping reason.
Only the supremely powerful can afford to ignore reality or afford to use faith, secular or religious, instead of reason when making decisions. How much power and how many resources will we waste trying to prove 'faith' is more powerful than reason?
I don't believe Yergin has any influence over American consumption, but histortically low interest rates most certainly did.
We are almost certainly now behind peak production. Global production has been steadly declining about 100,000 b/d every month. I seriously doubt that the new projects coming will be able to exceed declines. The existing field production declines will accelerate as will nationation of oil and gas assets.
Since were are already past the curve is pointless to enlighten the masses of the pending crisis. It would be far better to make your own preprations before time runs out and hell breaks loose rather than gamble on some gov't level effort to address the issue.
Once the world recognizes PO, exporters will almost certainly end or radically reduce exports to save their remain reserves for domestic use or to stretch out exports for trade. To believe that that the US or any country could initiate an manhattan/apollo scale project to address the issue is silly. There no longer remain sufficient resources to make long term preparations. When the crisis begins global stability will fall off the deep end as people and gov't panic over what to do and finger pointing becomes the norm. We have already seen the smoke, Nationalization of energy assets in Russia, and South America, China locking up energy with long term contracts, declining production at all the largest fields. It won't be too long before we start to see some flames.
So the Russian need for hard currency and the Saudi's flooding hte market driving down oil prices had NOTHING to do with the present consumption patterns?
It would be far better to make your own preprations before time runs out and hell breaks loose rather than gamble on some gov't level effort to address the issue.
Standard advice. If you prepare too well, the sniper with a .50 cal can and will take 'em from you however.
To believe that that the US or any country could initiate an manhattan/apollo scale project to address the issue is silly.
Which issue? Production, consumption, the money systerm, government level of spending.....So many issues are tied together, its not as simple as 'cheap money', lack of the currency being backed by anyhting,
thats a tough balancing act.
to be prepared enough to survive but not too well to become a target of not only hungry people but the government needing to get a hold of resources or to dispose of possible threats.
Everything I tell you is true.
But you already knew that.
Every day in every way, I am becoming better prepared. As are all my family members . . . .
This has to be a joke. What percentage of people buying an SUV in the US has ever heard of Yergin or was familiar with his prognostications, even without attaching them to his name? One tenth of one percent? Less?
There are WAY more important things we can be doing aside from chasing people like Yergin in circles.
It leaves me wondering if Yergin is popular because he is believed, or just because he enables.
Please let us bury dead horses rather than beat them over and over and over and over again.
In such a situation, is "attacking Yergin" a side or non issue?