The Oil Drum

46 comments on Links to tutorial material on Hubbert Linearization

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IFeelFree on July 7, 2006 - 5:03pm

One problem with this is that the person fitting the data using the HL technique makes a (subjective) choice about where to start the linear fit. To quote Stuart Staniford, "Long experience has taught us that the linearization generally does a bad job in the early part of the history...". Therefore, its possible, after the fact, to choose a starting point for the fit that gives good ageement with the known post-peak data.

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westexas on July 8, 2006 - 11:20am

"Therefore, its possible, after the fact, to choose a starting point for the fit that gives good ageement with the known post-peak data."

I proposed the Lower 48/Russian experiment to Khebab, and he chose all of the technical parameters. If you have read any of his posts, you can tell that Khebab is an objective scientist. IMO, he is a genius.

In any case, Khebab had zero preconceived expectataions of how the results would turn out. When you look at the actual 1970 and earlier Lower 48 data and actual 1984 and earlier Russian data, they both show very strong HL patterns.