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186 comments on DrumBeat: July 20, 2006

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The Interloafer on July 20, 2006 - 8:46am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
That story out of Mexico is interesting, if short-term.
Pemex said crude oil exports fell to 1.776 million barrels per day from 1.831 million bpd in May, while production dropped to 3.287 million bpd from 3.329 million bpd in May.
Usually graphs of United States peak show only year-by-year results that go into decline starting in 1971 I believe. Does anybody have the month-by-month figures at the moment of exact U.S. peak production? I'm curious to see how noisy the data at that time was, and whether there were some months where it made a short-lived rebound.
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westexas on July 20, 2006 - 9:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Note that Mexican oil production fell by about 1%, while net oil exports fell by about 3%, i.e, net exports are being squeezed by both falling production and rising consumption.  With Cantarell crashing, these numbers are like little pebbles falling down the mountainside, in advance of an avalanche.  

Also note that while the Russians are claiming higher oil production (I have my doubts since they were pushing the IPO), they are admitting to declines in net oil exports.

I predict successive rounds of bidding for declining net oil export capacity, and I continue to predict that net oil export capacity will fall faster than total world oil production.

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yashko on July 20, 2006 - 9:25am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There was a 42,000 bpd drop in production, 55,000 bpd drop in exports. Meanwhile, the natural gas treadmill is speeding up for Mexico: 10 million cubic feet per day drop in production, 55 million cubic feet per day rise in imports (almost all from the US, I believe). Small numbers, right now.

Annualize these numbers and it gets really scary-- 660,000 bpd drop in oil exports, or about one-third of total exports to the US. Combined with continuing troubles in GOM, and on shore depletion in the US, and we suddenly have to replace between 5 and 8% of our total consumption from other sources. Not even the new expansion at Syncrude is going to dent this.

Ouch.

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totoneila on July 20, 2006 - 2:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello TODers,

Outgoing Mexican Presidente' Vicente Fox calls for runoff election to help calm the situation and establish a voting majority.  I am still looking to find additional confirmation from other newsources, as I have never heard of this link before [SperoNews], but I am just trying to keep us TODers up to date on what is increasingly become a polarized country.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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Twilight on July 20, 2006 - 7:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Interesting!  If it turns out to be real, then I will find the silence from the MSM propaganda organs to be very revealing.  OTOH, I'm unlikly to think much better of the MSM even if it isn't! ;-)
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totoneila on July 20, 2006 - 11:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello Twilight,

Thxs for responding.  I think the American organizations should send some of those statisticians that analyzed the Florida[2000] & Ohio[2004] votes down Mexico way to help physicist Luis Mochán of UNAM complete his voting analysis to help resolve the Mexican Standoff.

Even better--send Stuart Staniford's and Khebab's resumes' down South.  I bet the Mexican Election Board [IFE] would hire these guys for huge $$$$ to do their wonderful data freak computational analysis on the Mexican vote.

The more I look at the statistical graphs of the election-->the more I think something is rotten: but I am no expert.  Hopefully, Freddy, Dave, DuncanK, and other TODers will comment on these disturbing graphs.

Top link excerpts:
--------------------
Doing maths in Mexico

While Mexicans take to the streets over the presidential vote, democracy's fairweather friends are standing silent.

Yet the stalwarts of democracy outside Mexico are silent. Bush has congratulated Calderón, not waiting for the court to rule. Reuters and Bloomberg echo the confidence of the elites that Calderón will win in court - never mind whether he won at the polls. When The New York Times is heard from, the headlines tell us of the "leftist claims" about the occurrence of fraud, while Calderón is described as "presidential." The Times never doubted that fraud did occur in Ukraine. In Mexico on the other hand, it seemingly renounces any duty to examine the facts on the ground.

Here's one difference between the two situations. In Ukraine, it was extremely hard to learn exactly what the evidence of fraudulence actually was. In Mexico, it is extremely easy. That is because the Mexican electoral authority, known as IFE, posted the ongoing count on its website in real time, an initiative called PREP. Independent scholars kept a record of PREP as the night progressed. A statistical analysis of that record does not, of course, constitute proof. But it brings to mind Henry David Thoreau's remark that circumstantial evidence can be very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk.
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Arizona is obviously on the front lines with Mexico.  If this election goes really bad, we will be swamped with refugees.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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geewiz on July 20, 2006 - 9:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thank you Totoneila for your updates on the Mexican Presidente' elections. I for one look forward to more as they develop. Please keep us updated.

By the way! I quit watching TV for the past 6 six weeks, and guess what?
 I don't miss it. ocassionally i'll walk past one and see a snippet here and there, i noticed CNN, MSNBC and FOX can flog a dead horse forever. GEEZ, i find other things to do. Though i have enjoyed the history channel and national geographic channel on the variety of topics, i do not miss TV at all.

I could go on a long time about how pleasant it is not to see or hear main stream media or reality shows. GEEZ!

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westexas on July 20, 2006 - 11:20am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Note that, again based on Khebab's excellent work, Mexico arrived at the 50% of Qt mark this year.  

If you limit the HL method to regions that have produced about 2 mbpd for 20 years or so, I am not aware of any case histories where the HL method failed.

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xxxburb on July 20, 2006 - 1:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And from Bloomberg today about remote Russian island drilling north of Japan.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aCi3NokxCtys&refer=exclusive_to_bloomber g

Shell Slips on Sakhalin Ice, Costs in Fight to Boost Reserves

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magnus1 on July 20, 2006 - 7:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
i wonder whether the net oil exports will be the light sweet or the heavier grades.
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DelusionaL on July 20, 2006 - 7:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
 a very good point
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GreyZone on July 20, 2006 - 9:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Is this historical chart from the EIA what you want?
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GreyZone on July 20, 2006 - 10:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I took that historical chart, converted it to a CSV file, then plotted the 5 years surrounding the peak. The graph below is what I got. It shows that things were very noisy then and that we had a situation very much like the last 24 months, some months up, some down, but no real clear trend til a few years had passed.




Click on the image to see it full sized. I didn't want the graph to blow up the entire page formatting. I've saved the image at flickr. Hopefully I've got the URL right for others to see it.

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TJ on July 20, 2006 - 11:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
At a guess, it's going to be a lot sharper for fields that have been doing water flooding for a while.
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The Interloafer on July 20, 2006 - 6:14pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
GZ, thanks. This is exactly what I was looking for.  Interesting.
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186 comments on DrumBeat: July 20, 2006

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