186 comments on DrumBeat: July 20, 2006
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186 comments on DrumBeat: July 20, 2006
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Thxs for responding. I think the American organizations should send some of those statisticians that analyzed the Florida[2000] & Ohio[2004] votes down Mexico way to help physicist Luis Mochán of UNAM complete his voting analysis to help resolve the Mexican Standoff.
Even better--send Stuart Staniford's and Khebab's resumes' down South. I bet the Mexican Election Board [IFE] would hire these guys for huge $$$$ to do their wonderful data freak computational analysis on the Mexican vote.
The more I look at the statistical graphs of the election-->the more I think something is rotten: but I am no expert. Hopefully, Freddy, Dave, DuncanK, and other TODers will comment on these disturbing graphs.
Top link excerpts:
--------------------
Doing maths in Mexico
While Mexicans take to the streets over the presidential vote, democracy's fairweather friends are standing silent.
Yet the stalwarts of democracy outside Mexico are silent. Bush has congratulated Calderón, not waiting for the court to rule. Reuters and Bloomberg echo the confidence of the elites that Calderón will win in court - never mind whether he won at the polls. When The New York Times is heard from, the headlines tell us of the "leftist claims" about the occurrence of fraud, while Calderón is described as "presidential." The Times never doubted that fraud did occur in Ukraine. In Mexico on the other hand, it seemingly renounces any duty to examine the facts on the ground.
Here's one difference between the two situations. In Ukraine, it was extremely hard to learn exactly what the evidence of fraudulence actually was. In Mexico, it is extremely easy. That is because the Mexican electoral authority, known as IFE, posted the ongoing count on its website in real time, an initiative called PREP. Independent scholars kept a record of PREP as the night progressed. A statistical analysis of that record does not, of course, constitute proof. But it brings to mind Henry David Thoreau's remark that circumstantial evidence can be very strong, as when you find a trout in the milk.
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Arizona is obviously on the front lines with Mexico. If this election goes really bad, we will be swamped with refugees.
Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?