The Oil Drum | DrumBeat: July 21, 2006

321 comments on DrumBeat: July 21, 2006

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westexas on July 21, 2006 - 8:43am

Highly Recommended Article from Sprott

http://www.energybulletin.net/18445.html

Of Oilsands and Caviar and Malthus (PDF)
http://www.sprott.com/pdf/marketsataglance/07-2006.pdf
Eric Sprott and Sasha Solunac, Sprott Asset Management

Summary:

...we were shocked two week ago when Shell Canada and Western Oil Sands announced that the price tag of their Athabasca oilsands expansion won't be $7.3 billion (Canadian dollars) as initially projected, but rather $11 billion - or 50% higher! If that's not inflation folks, then we don't know what is. This isn't the first, and we doubt it will be the last, cost increase that we'll hear about in the oilsands. Costs there are a continually moving upward target.

Announcements like this make it most obvious that the era of cheap oil is clearly over, especially when it costs so much for the world to get that incremental barrel of oil production, especially from heretofore unconventional sources. Remember that the oilsands were supposed to be the great saviour of the world's energy problems. It would appear that this purveyor of abundant energy is on its way to ignominity due to spiraling costs.

As unfortunate as that announcement was for oilsands producers, this article isn't about the oilsands. More interesting is what it implies for the cost of all things going forward. To wit, this article will be a general discussion on two inter-rated principles, or perhaps more accurately, two inter-related perils.

One is cost-push inflation, and the other is Malthusian theory. As we've already said, we found the oilsands announcement to be shocking - so much so that it effectively changed the landscape. Not only is it highly inflationary, but we fear that it is the kind of inflation that threatens to pervade absolutely everything. It is difficult to envision a scenario where the cost of energy soars without impacting the cost of all things, whether good or service. Just about everything we do comes from or relies on energy.
(July 2006)
From an investment firm that's peak oil conscious.

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Calorie on July 21, 2006 - 9:31am

Thanks for the reference, WT, that was an excellent article. I'd never heard of Sprott Asset Management until now. If you go to their home page you can see their track record, which looks pretty good. They also have a peak oil page, http://www.sprott.com/peakoil.php , which has a number of prior articles plus some current energy headlines.

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Fargo on July 21, 2006 - 9:40am

They're also global warming aware too.
Investment Implications of Abrupt Climate Change

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rude crude on July 21, 2006 - 9:58am

My appologies if this has been previously posted on this website. I have been without internet access the past couple of days. The St Louis Post Dispatch is reporting
that the power outage in this area has affected a nearby refinery. Radio reports yesterdy were asking people not
to panic and "rush out to topoff there tanks".

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/metroeast/story/5931607E4094FF4B862571B10078B99D?O penDocument&highlight=2%2C%22refinery%22

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Robert Rapier on July 21, 2006 - 11:07am

This is ConocoPhillips' Wood River refinery. I knew about this yesterday morning, but couldn't say anything until it hit the press. This refinery is responsible for about 1% of all oil refined in the U.S. That's all I will say for now, until determining what the news media is reporting.

Cheers,

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tate423 on July 21, 2006 - 11:26am

Power outages following last night's storms shut down oil refining at the ConnocoPhillips plant in Hartford.
On a normal day, the 10th busiest such plant in the nation refines 306,000 barrels of crude into gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, propane and other products that it ships by pipeline to St. Louis, Chicago and Indianopolis.
Not a single barrel was refined there today.
Plant spokeswoman Melissa Erker said the refinery had hired additional contractors to assist AmerenUE in repairing numerous downed lines and other damage to the plant.
Erker said she did not know when power would be restored. And she declined to speculate where the shutdown would affect area fuel prices.

Since there are no pipelines from there to my STL side, I'm not too worried.

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totoneila on July 21, 2006 - 4:18pm

Hello Tate423,

How about power outages caused by people stealing the oil from electrical transformers? This is really getting oil the most dangerous way possible!
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The company was forced to buy new transformers to replace those burnt down.

Once oil is drained from a transformer, it overheats, and if power is not switched off on time, the transformer explodes and cannot be repaired for future use.

The above mentioned losses only include replacement of transformers, but does not include the loss of revenue incurred by the Company for the inability to sell electricity units to consumers.

The loss does not also include many hours lost in tackling the theft. There are reports that 40 per cent of the power supplied to India's capital of New Delhi disappears through "transmission losses" meaning it is consumed without being paid for. It is stolen.
---------------------------
I predicted some time ago that detrito-terrorists will add positive feedback greatly to Tainterian collapse. The path to Olduvai Gorge gains more people everyday.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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totoneila on July 21, 2006 - 4:35pm

Hello TODers,

If you are going to steal electricity, stealing an extra electrical meter is a pretty clever way to do it. I would imagine the Tanzanians use their regular meter for 3 weeks, then switch to the stolen unit for the week prior to when the utility company meter-reader arrives to determine the monthly billing. After he/she leaves, then switch back to the original unit for more free juice [this process only takes a few minutes to accomplish due to snap-in, snap-out design]. A unique theft tactic if you ask me!

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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pondlife on July 22, 2006 - 7:59am

You could just make 2 connections before the meter and get it free.

There is a gizmo you can make that requires only 1 low power connection before the meter and 2 after it [ie any domestic wall socket]. It will subtract x kilowatts from the meter measurement, where x depends on the internal construction.

I met a guy who used to hire them out for a few weeks before meter readings..

At one time, I believe you could drive round gas meters with a vacumn cleaner after they were removed.

Then again, our water is unmetered, so just run a generator from the tap.

All ranked up there with treason, if you get caught.

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TN Granny on July 22, 2006 - 8:07am

Yeah, and electric distributors (at least in this area) have software programs which can identify habitual thieves from usage records. I know because I hace worked on such programs. In our area people who bypass meters are usually either running an underground 'weed' growing farm or a moonshine still in the barn and don't want to appear to be using unusual ammounts of electricity.

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tate423 on July 21, 2006 - 6:00pm

I hope thats motor oil, like lubricant. That's when you know its bad. This is something! Gas is, as you may guess, starting to become hard to come by. So much so, it is on the radio and it's turned into a game. People are calling in to talk about where the gas still is and where people can go if they need to.

So I got the thinking. Downtown there is a concert, Live on the Levee, it's going on as planned. That's going to drain the power, and its shutting down eads bridge, aptly renamed eats bridge for the concert. So transportation flow takes a hit for "economic gain." Its a contractual agreement that they go on with the restaurants. I wonder what kind of financial hardships that could arise from insurance being hit for a lot of cancelled events due to lack of "ingredients?" What do you think?

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totoneila on July 21, 2006 - 9:33pm

Hello Tate423,

Not sure if I understand your question: "I wonder what kind of financial hardships that could arise from insurance being hit for a lot of cancelled events due to lack of "ingredients?"

My guess is a lot of future events will never get off the ground because people won't be able to afford to travel to them, much less spend money on the food and trinkets, excluding local neighborhood 'potluck' parties.

The ins cos. that refused to write hurricane and flood coverage along the East Coast are so far looking profitably vindicated [these cos. could care less if your uninsured property got flooded]. Tropical Storm Beryl could have spun up further into real bad news, and the season is still young.

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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Darwinian on July 21, 2006 - 11:31am

Robert, does this mean that if the media is reporting something different from what you know to be the truth then you should remain silent and let the lie ride?

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Donal on July 21, 2006 - 11:52am

There's a right time to blow the whistle.

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tate423 on July 21, 2006 - 11:55am

RR got me going. I called the Post, they said they don't know what might be so big about it other than a refinery is shut down. I'll wait on RR I guess.

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Robert Rapier on July 21, 2006 - 12:59pm

Robert, does this mean that if the media is reporting something different from what you know to be the truth then you should remain silent and let the lie ride?

That's not it. The media is not really reporting anything. I just was a story on CNN, and they talked about the storm and all of the damage, but didn't mention the refinery. That is a very big refinery, and as spooky as the markets have been I would have assumed it would have gotten a mention.

You have to realize that sometimes I may have some information that has not been released to the public, and I could lose my job if I am the one who releases it. When news is released, I can comment on it.

Cheers,

P.S. To "tate123" above: This refinery is a major supplier of fuel into STL.

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tate423 on July 21, 2006 - 1:21pm

Damn, I always thought the idea of a pipeline coming from TX was BS.

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majordoomer on July 21, 2006 - 12:41pm

================

Im in st.louis and my aunt is a manager at a local mobil gas station, and she said they are down to about 600 gallons of gas and they told her there wont be any more coming very soon. So I went and filled up all three of my cars / work vans.

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tate423 on July 21, 2006 - 12:53pm

MD...I'm with you as soon as I get off work. This is stupid.

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rude crude on July 21, 2006 - 1:27pm

According to the radio report that I heard yesterday it is not only that the refinery that is down but also the terminals. As was stated in the report, even if the refinery was operational there would be no way to ship the product(s) until power was restored.

To RR's comment above: I too, am puzzled as to why this is not getting more attention in MSM.

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Leanan on July 21, 2006 - 2:09pm

What about Valero? Should New Orleans residents rush out to fill up their tanks, too?

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 21, 2006 - 2:39pm

Shell and Murphy are still up, as well as ExxonMobil in Baton Rouge and 3 or 4 other smaller refineries in the area.

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rude crude on July 21, 2006 - 2:43pm

I wonder how similar situations to this are going to play out?

http://www.theindependent.com/stories/072106/new_diesel21.shtml

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Robert Rapier on July 21, 2006 - 5:03pm

Should New Orleans residents rush out to fill up their tanks, too?

I would. In fact, I can offer a standing piece of advice. Any time a large refinery goes down in your area, fill up your tank IMMEDIATELY. A couple of things can happen when a big refinery goes down. It will remove a large amount of supply in the local area, and unless the refinery comes right back up, supplies can be drained. Prices will come up to stem demand, so the faster you react the better. If the refinery is down for more than a few days, supplies will start to come in from other areas, but you are going to pay a higher price. (That's one reason prices went up nationwide after Katrina; supplies were diverted to the gulf).

After Hurricane Katrina hit, I knew pretty quickly about the extent of the damage. I had direct knowledge of one refinery down there, had an early warning on the Mars platform, and knew that supply was going to be knocked out for a long time. I called my friends and family in Texas and Oklahoma right after the hurricane and advised them to fill up all of their vehicles and any gas cans they could scrounge up. Gas prices at the time were around $2.20 a gallon, but I warned that they could go up to $3.00 in just a few days. That is just what happened.

This is what I mean when I say sometimes I have information I can't share. I had an early warning on these things, but that warning came as a result of my employment. I can't share those pieces of information in a public forum. Assume that I issued a warning here at TOD about supplies in the wake of Katrina. I would have been guilty of helping cause a panic and a run on supplies. Even though that happened anyway, it's best for me that my company doesn't come back and ask why I had a hand in it.

Cheers,

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AlanfromBigEasy on July 21, 2006 - 5:40pm

During hurricane season, I keep at least 2/3 of a tank plus a couple of gallons of diesel in a "gas" can. Enough to get me to Tennessee even with 8 hours of stop & go driving.

Since I need to fill up otherwise every 2.5 months or so, I can wait (I average 6 gallons/month).

The New Orleans Metro area refines perhaps 10 times what we use locally, with more refineries nearby. Any local reduction can be spread over a much larger area by reducing shipments out.

As Saudi depletion kicks in, I do not expect gas lines in Riyadh.

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