The Oil Drum | Energy Policy Issue Rankings and Bush's Presidential Approval Numbers

117 comments on Energy Policy Issue Rankings and Bush's Presidential Approval Numbers

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Prodigal Son on July 21, 2006 - 10:04am

Since we're discussing politics here, thought I would point out that the University of Iowa's political futures market opened again last month. These markets tend to be very accurate, better than polls, especially far out from the elections.

House:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_House06.cfm

Senate:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Senate06.cfm

We may be looking at another 2 years of GOP rule.

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Prof. Goose on July 21, 2006 - 10:29am

I use these in my classes PS. The data are indeed quite good. They have a wonderful time series of event driven data all the way back to 1988 or some such, that, if I ever get the time, I am going to play with like a geek on crack.

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Prof. Goose on July 21, 2006 - 10:32am

I think it's also very important to note that the House is the most likely to change hands. If I were betting on it right now, I'd agree with the odds of 3:2 that it won't turn-over. Way too many seats with non-competitive races.

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Catskill on July 21, 2006 - 12:16pm

thanks in no small part to Delay style completely bogus gerrymandering of the districts...

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Prof. Goose on July 21, 2006 - 1:50pm

while I would agree with that to a point, it's important to note that the Constitution puts the power to redraw districts in the hands of state legislatures. Republicans control a lot of state legislatures. Ergo, if you want the districts to be drawn in your favor, win elections. Democrats in the states where they have control of the state legislatures are just as bad about drawing districts in their favor as Republicans though.

There's a great book on the history and technology of gerrymandering by Mark Monmonier called Bushmanders and Bullwinkles. Quite good.

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Prodigal Son on July 21, 2006 - 3:51pm

Exactly. Gerrymandering is a real cancer on our body politic -- there was a book out last year (forgot the name) that basically argued that the polarization we're seeing in America isn't reflected in the poll data -- thus suggesting gerrymandering is what's causing it.

I think a real argument can be made that the US House of Representatives, as an institution, has simply ceased working as it is supposed to. The House was supposed to be the body most representative of the people because it was theoretically 'closer' to them -- but the gerrymandered districts means the median voter that is in effect represented by legislators in these gerrymandered districts are far more partisan than voters as a whole.

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GreyZone on July 21, 2006 - 4:09pm

Don't blame the Republicans for this because gerrymandering has been going on since the beginning of the United States. The problem is in how we create districts, not who creates them. Either party can and will (and has the historical record to prove it) manipulate the existing system to their own ends. Fixing the problem is not just throwing the Republicans out and letting the Democrats gerrymander their way instead. Fixing the problem means changing the flaws in the system of how districts are drawn.

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Prof. Goose on July 21, 2006 - 4:11pm

I believe you're referring to Fiorina's Culture War book. It's an interesting read, but it's been discussed by a lot of people.

Here's an interesting piece here that addresses it:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2006/06/polarized_partisans_probably.php

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Prodigal Son on July 21, 2006 - 4:38pm

That's the book. Thanks for the link that provides a nice rebuttal -- that polarization has been increasing since 1970 is a strong counter-argument to be sure.

However, I don't think one can argue either-or positions here -- clearly the US political system is a complex system with numerous feedback loops. No doubt the increasing polarization that began in the 1970s has led to partisan redistricting which is causing additional polarization.

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Mad Maxout on July 22, 2006 - 2:06pm

Gerrymandering is a traditional practice with Chicago and the political machine. Too bad you can't take a political machine and get it to make useful machanical work. If you could, the Daley Machine alone could power the whole electrical grid including electrified rail and trolley buses!

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Sunspot on July 21, 2006 - 11:51am

The question of whether or not we are "ruled" by Republicans for the next two years will not be decided by the voters. Our elections are clearly rigged. It's probably because the Republicans have the system in place to pull it off. The "decision" about who will run Congress after November may simply be a question of whose operatives are the best. Or is it all decided in corporate boardrooms?
And, anyway, who cares?? Senators and Comgressman don't even read the bills they pass into law. And after the laws are passed, they are changed anyway (huh?). And it has been proven that we now have secret laws - pretty tough to obey a secret law, isn't it? As a citizen - not a comsumer, a citizen, dammit! - I demand the right to see all legislation before it is voted on so I can give my gov't representative my opinion. However, this is not possible.

Has it always been this way? Maybe. Probably.

The only decisions voters make is "R" or "D". (David Putty: "Gotta support the team")

Sadly, I will not be voting this November...

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Gunga2006 on July 21, 2006 - 12:15pm

I'm disgusted with the dismal leadership our politicians provide also. I think writing in a candidate will be a better way to communicate disgust with politicians of both parties than not voting at all though.
I think I'll write my sons name in,,he's only 5 but he says whats on his mind and is not shy to voice an unpopular opinion.
ie. (as he went up the stairs to bed the other night)Mom,,your butt's big

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old hermit on July 21, 2006 - 1:50pm

Gunga2006:

Was he telling the truth?

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Gunga2006 on July 21, 2006 - 2:06pm

no,,her butt is perfect..

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Fargo on July 21, 2006 - 2:39pm

Was she looking over your shoulder as you typed that ;)

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Gunga2006 on July 21, 2006 - 2:50pm

Yeah,,but she's gone now.. the kid calls it like he sees it

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geewiz on July 21, 2006 - 10:55pm

Same here, disgusted with the leadership in congress and senate, they seem to be interested in keeping their position than choosing the "right thing " to do.

Suggest everyone watch the special on George Washington, The Warrior on the History channel. He did it right. he hated the job, and was glad to leave. and never returned to public service!

I for one will VOTE, and i will vote any and every incumbent OUT!
As i am reminded that our soldiers fight for our right to participate in a democratic election.

The congressional THUGS who sang God Bless America after 9/11 on TV are the same thugs who can't seem to deal with any important issues. And are selling us down the river with immigration? The Senate is no better, maybe worse! They are all out of touch with the common man!

Suddenly, gay marriage, steroids and flag burning are more important than immigration and energy? I don't think so. I will VOTE!
I encourage every one else to VOTE, as long as you VOTE!

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Mad Maxout on July 22, 2006 - 2:15pm

You forgot Abortion. If only we could abort our whole system and start afresh. Wait... Peak Oil IS going to abort the system! Along with the proverbial bath water.

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liferaft on July 22, 2006 - 7:34pm

In my opinion, a vote for a Democrat or a Republican is a wasted vote. I vote my conscience and my principles, and have voted Green for many years. The California Green Party has 59 Greens holding local office. We have a full slate running for statewide offices, including Peter Camejo for governor. Don't waste your vote. Vote Peace. Vote Green.

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Mad Maxout on July 22, 2006 - 2:13pm

I'm pretty disgusted too. The last election (Y2K4)was such that I purposely grabbed a GOP ballot in the primary and wrote in Osama bin Laden for president! In previous cases I wrote myself in where both candidates for an office were repugnant. I would love to be able to type in this:

C:\ format /s political_system

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Seadragon on July 22, 2006 - 3:51pm

Better watch it, Max. The government is listening...

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geewiz on July 22, 2006 - 4:20pm

as i recall, in Brazil they were so disgusted with their choices for president, they wtote in Monkey!

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117 comments on Energy Policy Issue Rankings and Bush's Presidential Approval Numbers

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