<DrumBeat: August 10, 2006The Oil DrumDrumBeat: August 11, 2006>

197 comments on Is a Wall of Oil Heading for the Market?

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PeakEngineer on August 10, 2006 - 4:36pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Are the planned megaprojects unusual?  Don't new wells pop up every year, or are these substantially different than in recent history?  With the recent declines we've seen (Cantarell, Kuwait, Burgan, Prudhoe, etc.), I don't see the new planned projects offsetting those losses by any great amount.
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Euan Mearns on August 10, 2006 - 6:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
No, nothing unusual here, new projects come on every year.  The main new project is the Baku Tbilisi Ceyhan pipeline pumping new oil from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) Field in Azerbaijan that just opened in June and will be ramping up over 1 million bpd over the next two years.  My feeling is that this new oil, along with other projects has been keeping a lid on the oil price.  Perhaps combined with demand destruction. The balance between new capacity, capacity erosion and demand destruction is key to the future direction of the oil price.  This week so far we've had 400,000 bpd production knocked off in Alaska and probably more than that in demand knocked off the jet fuel market today.  I think the market underestimates the capacity erosion side of the equation and would point TODers at OIL CEO's table over on the pilot Canadian Oil Drum Site.
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Rajiv on August 10, 2006 - 7:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
That Brings up an interesting idea.

Was this latest "Terrorist Alert/Airline Passenger crackdown" a response to the the Prudhoe shutdown? An overt attempt at rapid demand destruction? Subject the passengers to ridiculous conditions, and people will stop flying, airlines will cut schedules, just in time for the Prudhoe "Oil Cut."

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Dmitri on August 11, 2006 - 12:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Rajiv -

Good point. It looks much like hysteria-pumping excercise aimed exactly at demand destruction. However, Prudhoe may not be the primary reason - there must be something bigger. If this theory is right, the UK and US governments will use this "failed terrorist plot" as an excuse for some vile atrocities (a war against Duka-Dukastan?)

to me yesterday's madness in the UK reminds of George Orwell's 1984 (see last sentence of the quote):

""Winston found that the one area of his interest in which Julia could not share was the idea of organized rebellion against the Party. She was not affected by the story of Jones, Aaronson and Rutherford. She did not mind as he did about the fact that history was being falsified daily. As for Goldstein and the Brotherhood, she went to sleep when Winston tried to discuss them. It did not matter to her whether they were fighting Eurasia or Eastasia, in fact she doubted whether there was a war at all, the Party probably dropped the bombs itself to control the people.""

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MicroHydro on August 11, 2006 - 12:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Even giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt - assume actual terrorists with a credible threat - the government admits this situation has been under observation for months, so the public disclosure date was elective and the degree of hysteria entirely by choice and inappropriate for a well neutralized threat.  I suspect this incident served several agendas:
  1. "Leverage the xenophobia" as the pentagon said in its internal documents re: Zarqawi.  As the dictator screamed in the movie V, "REMIND THE PEOPLE WHY THEY NEED US!!!
  2. Get Lamont defeats Lieberman out of the news cycle
  3. Get dead Lebanese children out of the news cycle
  4. build momentum towards UK ID cards
  5. Get people accustomed to martial law
.
.
.
Maybe oil demand destruction is a peripheral motive also
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Oil CEO on August 11, 2006 - 1:04am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Weren't you touting your credentials as a surgeon and an investor quite recently? Now you're gonna be our head radical? Chief Conspiracy Theorist? Spot's already taken. Savinar's effectively given up the Alpha-Male position, I suppose you could apply for that.
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MicroHydro on August 11, 2006 - 2:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Much of my recent success as a peak oil investor has been based on the assumption that all governments and all media outlets have their own agendas and lie constantly.  Just like drug addicts lie to hospitals to try to get their fix, this is merely human nature.  No theory involved or needed.  Good thing that I wasn't so trusting as to believe the public "cheap oil in 2005-2006" lies of Daniel Yergin, Michael Lynch, and Steve Forbes.
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smekhovo on August 11, 2006 - 3:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Don't bother paying attention to the nitwit. School's out, so annoying kids like ceo are underfoot.
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AngryChimp on August 11, 2006 - 7:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"Now you're gonna be our head radical? Chief Conspiracy Theorist?"

Where can I send my application for this position?

==AC

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SelfAggrandizedTrader on August 11, 2006 - 7:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You've got my vote, Chimp.
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tstreet on August 11, 2006 - 8:35am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
So, therefore, the government was endangering its people for months by not checking for liquids.
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light299 on August 11, 2006 - 12:59am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I'd expect to see another attack close before the election... think about it; The Republicans are behind in the poles. A terrorist attack (or a thwarted one) is just what they to need to rally behind. After all, they are the party for security! On top of that, as you mentioned, a terrorist attack (depending on the type) would cause demand destruction, lowering energy prices (a weakpoint in the Republican platform). Finally, it would remind a few people "why" we are fighting the war in Iraq (or at least be able to be spinned as an attempt to justify the needless bloodshed).
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Darwinian on August 11, 2006 - 6:29am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Was this latest "Terrorist Alert/Airline Passenger crackdown" a response to the the Prudhoe shutdown? An overt attempt at rapid demand destruction?

I think it it tragic to see this list degenerate into a posting place for conspiracy theory nitwits.

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bjj on August 11, 2006 - 7:07am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Agreed.
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markincalgary on August 11, 2006 - 11:19am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The kind of manipulation of the media that MicroHydro talked about is well known, well understood, and plain to see. Timing press releases is taught to public relations people in school. My employer is small enough, and I'm sufficiently senior,  that I get to eat lunch with the folk that plan these sorts of things. It happens.

Given that, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch to see other factors affect the timing of press releases. And at least this is a peak oil related theory.

But I agree that it would be nice if The Oil Drum didn't go to far down this road.

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wkwillis on August 11, 2006 - 3:58pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Point taken. I shouldn't have replied to that Coincidence Theory guy on the old news about the WTC.
Hey, Capone said "Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action", but that doesn't mean he was right. Sometimes things just happen.
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AngryChimp on August 11, 2006 - 4:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Stop your crying Ron.  You need to expand your thought process a tad...

 "The man who never alters his opinion is like standing water, and breeds reptiles of the mind."
~William Blake

==AC

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mencial on August 11, 2006 - 9:34am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It could work the other way. It could remember people who put them in this war. You do not get more secure by killing people wantonly. People are not born terrorists. Check what happened in Madrid. We could have fallen into fear and bomb someone off the planet (or at least get Bush to do it). But we remained calm and sent Aznar packing, as we all wanted to do.

For that, you would need to educate people to actually get informed and think and not just swallow headlines whole.

--
¡Think, organize, and fight!
But if you cannot think... ¡Organize and fight!
But if you cannot organize... ¡Fight!
  -- Anarchist slogan

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bjj on August 11, 2006 - 5:35pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
A series of if-then-else statements that defaults to 'fight'?  

That's mayhem, not anarchy.

Sorry.  I have anarchic moments.  But the default state is not one of violence.

Seriously, see if you can help convince your anarchic brethren to use the alternate algorithm below:

while (! $goodEnoughSituation)
{
 if ($Brain->thinking){
  return createConstructiveSolution($Brain,$Community);
 } else{
   start($Brain);
 }
}

Here's another take on how (not) to form governments:


DENNIS: Listen, strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government. Supreme executive power derives from a mandate from the masses, not from some farcical aquatic ceremony.
ARTHUR: Be quiet!
DENNIS: Well you can't expect to wield supreme executive power just because some watery tart threw a sword at you!
ARTHUR: Shut up!
DENNIS: I mean, if I went around saying, "I was an emperor just because some moistened bink had lobbed a scimitar at me" they'd put me away!

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David JM on August 11, 2006 - 11:24am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Anybody recall how long airline traffic was reduced after 9/11? (ie, how much demand destruction for airline fuel consumption is their really going to be.  Especially if the result of increasing paranoia is a support for even more war...
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mw on August 11, 2006 - 2:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well... Iraq may be off-line again soon.

"Meanwhile, a constitutional crisis. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki had announced that he was stripping the provincial governing council of Basra of its security portfolio. Security is collapsing in the southern port city, oil exports through which account for the only income the Iraqi government has.  The governing council has declared that it will not relinquish the security portfolio.

The stage is set for a contest between the central government's armed forces, including the 10th Division of the army, and the Shiite militias that support the provincial government." - Juan Cole

For those that can translate:
http://www.azzaman.com/azzaman/http/display.asp?fname=/azzaman/articles/2006/08/08-09/999.htm

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Samsara on August 11, 2006 - 7:51am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

voices overheard :-)

Lebanon not going to good in the Media,  What can we do to saturate the news with? I want a 24/7 wall to wall MSM event. What do we have on the burner?

Well we got a group planning to blow up an airline.

We'll go with that.

A little dark humor this morning.  

I watched "V is for Venditta" last night.

I would HIGHLY recommend it.

JC

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Mike Hearn on August 11, 2006 - 1:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Was this latest "Terrorist Alert/Airline Passenger crackdown" a response to the the Prudhoe shutdown?

No. It happened now because they intercepted a message from Pakistan basically saying "Go do it now".

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Kevembuangga on August 11, 2006 - 1:52pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
What is your source for this?

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goritsas on August 11, 2006 - 2:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Sorry Mike, if this is true it clearly violates the Cheney 1% rule. Cheney has stated publicly and categoricly if there is a 1% chance a threat exisits there should be no delay in countering that threat. If a message came through to "do it now," the situation had gone well past the 1%.

I would like to know why "months" had passed before action was taken. Why was the 1% rule ignored? Why was action delayed until the 11th hour?

Feel free to elaborate. I hope the answers you find are to your liking.

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Byron Walter on August 12, 2006 - 3:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
But this was a Brit operation and it appears that they told us about it and perhaps had us help with electronic ops.

I don't think that this is any different than any other type of op where you really want to get the maximun amount of intel before shutting it down. Maybe the Brits don't prescribe to Cheneyism's (hope not).

My sources have informed me that al Qaida has planned a "massive gas attack" intended to circumvent airport security.

Before taking to the skys the Jihadis gorge on refried beans at Taco Bell. They board their flights wearing wool. Once in the air, they commence with "death by flatus". Then they rub against each other and create a few static sparks. You get the picture.

Once word gets out, all passengers will have to travel nude and have a high-colonic before boarding.

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cleatisman on August 11, 2006 - 2:02am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
and where is this Canadian Oil Drum web site? Google can't find it.
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Euan Mearns on August 11, 2006 - 5:03am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
A badly kept secret:

http://canada.theoildrum.com/

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