<DrumBeat: August 18, 2006The Oil DrumGetting to Know Daniel Yergin>

69 comments on A Different Way to Perform the Hubbert Linearization

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Khebab on August 18, 2006 - 3:42pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Below a first attempt using the years 1983-2005 (BP data), the peak year is 2013:



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peakearl on August 18, 2006 - 4:09pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Not to make too much of this, but eyeballing the graph the 2013 predicted peak looks like around 1.5 mbpd more than now?
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Khebab on August 18, 2006 - 4:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
+2.53 mbpd to be precise:

P(2013)= 83.62 mbpd
P(2005)= 81.1 mbpd

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Freddy Hutter on August 19, 2006 - 1:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Just a reminder to all that this would indicate an 88-mbd peak (83.6 + 4.4 ref gain) based on ASPO.
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Freddy Hutter on August 19, 2006 - 2:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Actually, BP & ASPO differ on 2005.  The indicated all liquids peak is implied at 86.7-mbd (83.6 + 3.1 ref gain) based on BP/IEA data for 2005.
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TheTransition on August 18, 2006 - 8:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The problem with all linearizations is choosing which data to include in the fit. Depending on your data choice you can move the peak around a few years.
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morningstar on August 18, 2006 - 8:41pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thats why it would be nice to have a method where you didn't have to exclude any data points.  The 2nd HL method looks closer to being able to do that.
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Khebab on August 18, 2006 - 8:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I agree, it'a common problem with the curve fitting approach especially when we have several production peaks.
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