Our trader friend, SAT, continues to assert that the prevailing media position is that they are predicting rising oil prices. I don't see it. IMO, most of the talking heads, especially on CNBC, are talking about lower oil prices. A case in point, this morning they had a guy on who predicted $50 this year, if everything goes okay, and $30 within a few years. I guess he believes the CERA report.
I think that SAT's prediction of oil below $60 this fall reflects the conventional wisdom.
The price could hit $300 as Simmons suggests or the price could hit $30 as the guy you mention suggests. If the pipeline problems are epidemic, if there is a world-wide depression respectively. It really doesn't change what we ought to be working on - and that is remaking and rebuilding a society that is not dependent on large amounts of energy to do basic stuff of living. The speculators are interested in price of course, but the fundamental argument is between those that think we need to change the way we live before cicumstances force that change in an ugly way, and those that think we can either continue as we are on fossil fuels or with help of a techno fix. I know, there are some that think techno fix can buy time while we change the lifestyle part. It could, but it also gives the impression that we can continue business as usual.
I see Westtexas, you got a shout-out on Kunstler's Daily Grunt. I'm jealous.
"I see Westtexas, you got a shout-out on Kunstler's Daily Grunt. I'm jealous."
I guess that Jim and I are both now persona non grata in certain circles.
In regard to the conventional wisdom stuff about oil prices, I keep having this vision of the various members of the "Iron Triangle" linking hands and chanting "We have plenty of oil. .. We have plenty of oil," thinking if they repeat it often enough, it will be true.
With respect to petroleum, America has been sleepwalking toward disaster for twenty years. The nation desperately needs a wakeup call, not a fairy tale masquerading as a forecast.
Our society is deeply infected with fairy tales. It starts at childhood and goes on and on: Cinderella, Sleeping Beauty, Beauty and the Beast, Jack and the Oil Beanstalk ...
Our beanstalk. Our Golden Goose: Oil gushing up from the ground, forever and happily ever after.
What? They gave him a "chicken"? I can't believe it!
Reminds me of a joke:
Two old friends bump into each other as they walk their dogs in a downtown area. "Hey, let's do drinks at that bar across the street," says one. "Can't, we got these dogs" the other explains. "No problem" says the first, "Still got your sunglasses? OK, then do as I do."
The second guy watches with amazement as his friend puts on a pair of sunglasses and approaches the bouncer. "No dogs allowed." "Oh, I'm sorry. I'm blind. This is my seeing eye dog." Oh sorry man, that's different, go on in.
Second guy tries the same thing. The bouncer says, No way dude, I've never seen a Chiwawa as a seeing eye dog.
stepback you gotta move to urban America. I see that babe everyday here in Chicago and a while back I dated her (it was problematic).
Sur it's the same or better in LA San Fran NYC
Too late. I just spotted Sailorman slipping off from dock with her. He was using his slick (oil) toungue to make her gush and ooze for him. Oil's fair in love and war --war over the oil fairy that is. Better luck at your next bore site. ;-)
Oh, man. Every pirate's dream come true. Long ago, and I'm talking long, long ago. I clicked on Leanan's user info and it led to some site with photos, and that was on it. And I always wondered why she hadn't posted it yet. I mean - it's the Oil Fairy. Why wouldn't she post it? It is totally appropriate. And everybody loves The Oil Fairy. My mother used to read me stories about her when I was a kid. Needless to say, I would only trust Leanan with the history and the truth surrounding The Oil Fairy.*
*better protect your rights to name. I've got a screen play almost finished and a comic-book in the works. I'm gonna be snapping up the copyright soon. Last chance.
I don't have the transcript yet, but you can now buy the CD (details follow). Matt and Jim had never met until that night, and I don't think that they had even talked to each other. Jim was in the studio with Glenn Mitchell at KERA (the local PBS station) and Matt was calling in on a phone line, after giving a speech at the Petroleum Club. (The previous day, I had driven Jim and John Galvin, a reporter, all over the suburban wasteland that is the DFW Metroplex, in search of little pockets of New Urbanism--a memorable experience, I can assure you.)
In any case, Matt and Jim, coming from vastly different backgrounds, were basically finishing each other's sentences. I highly recommend this CD. It's about 50 minutes long, and it is a great way to introduce people to Peak Oil. They can listen to the CD in their cars going to and from work (a little ironic don't you think?).
From KERA 90.1:
KERA 90.1 can provide additional CDs for $10 each. Interested parties should send a check or money order along with details about the program (date, etc.) to:
Talk Show CD Request
KERA 90.1
3000 Harry Hines Blvd.
Dallas, TX 75201
/I guess that Jim and I are both now persona non grata in certain circles. /
Congratulations.
About a decade ago a man named Alan Sokal became 'persona non grata' in postmodernist circles. In both cases these circles consisted of people believing themself morally superiour to the rest of us.
And in both cases these people are really nothing more than filth.
I just got done reading Geography of Nowhere and Home from Nowhere by Kunstler. Great books about the probrem of suburbanism. We have painted ourselves into a corner with inventing the drive-only society. It's an awful good thing gas don't cost 3 CENTS a gallon. We'd be driving Harriers to commute, and if sprawl is bad with cars, it would be 10 times worse with Harriers.
Compared to all pre-car transportation methods for personal use, it's tantamount to all of us being given pilots licenses and jets by comparison. Could someone with a 50 mile commute do it on a mere bicycle? No. The sheer speed created the sprawl we face today. For those who grew up in the suburbs, 10 miles is close while someone like me who grew up in a city with a carless family would call it appropriately far. But take away the car, and suburbanites are in for a shock! By public transit, a visit to my dad (after a divorce) took all day, but a car trip was like an hour to a town 70 miles away.
An interesting thing about my mindset comes up. As a kid, separated from my dad by the great distance, I developed an interest in aviation due to a wish to reconnect with him. I daydreamed of a car-sized jet plane to drive to that town!
It really is amazing, how it's changed. My office is about four miles from the downtown of a small city. It's surrounded by sprawl now: office buildings, strip malls, fast food joints, etc. But many of the old-timers remember when the area was way out in the boonies. It was all apple orchards then. And a "speedway" (racetrack). They remember occasionally visiting the speedway as kids, but very rarely, because it was so far away.
The "arterials" made a huge difference. Two one-way, three-lane roads running through the city. Many of the residents still harbor great resentment over those arterials. They cut through many fine old neighborhoods, doing very bad things to property values and quality of life. And of course, traffic has increased so much that it takes just about as long as before the arterials were built.
You never know who reads this stuff. I just got an e-mail from a researcher at Sandia Labs. They are deeply concerned about the energy situation. From his e-mail: 'We are all researchers with strong interests in helping our nation with whatever challenges confront it. Right now, we believe that is energy."
Well, that's just a bit disconcerting that he felt the need to elaborate that - since they are under the Department of Energy (aren't they?)
Anyhow, ask him what he can do about people who drive 20 miles to work every day, drive their kids to school and to soccer practice, drive to the movies, drive to visit their friends, drive to get groceries, and have 3000+ sq ft homes. How about moving all that stuff close enough together so that they can walk? Can Sandia figure out a way to do that ? Then we can get them started on how to grow food locally.
Saw this on World News Tonight. A handful of suburbanites are growing gardens with veggies in their otherwise useless front yards. Mixing in indiginous vegitation with the food plants, they are on the vanguard of permaculture. I guess they have very lenient homeowners associations. (California) Now, to replace those cars....
Mad Maxout, some places don't have Homeowner's Associations. The neighborhood I live in, in the Southeast, I choose specifically because it lacked one. I have to much of the anarchist and rebel in me to stand for someone telling me what color I can paint my shutters and how I have to trim my bushes. This will come in handy next year, when I expand my garden to include my front yard!
Most (if not nearly all) newer developments do have associations. I wonder if the original developer gets a cut of the fees. While with condos associations are inevitable, the idea of associations remove half the point of homeownership. You may as well have a landlord!
Mad Money's Jim Cramer had a piece on his investing website, theStreet.com, this morning entitled, "It's an Oil Scarcity, Not a Bubble", that criticizes the people who say that oil prices are a bubble and that there's plenty of oil:
"...The idea that hedge funds can hold up oil for two years now to me seems just plain stupid. I think we should recognize that someone, some company, some country, would have woken up to the idea that it was hedge funds that are holding it up and flood the world with oil. But no one can. They can't even get the pipelines working to take advantage of it, for heaven's sake..."
You are not alone. I make it a policy to bypass the Cramer Shout Show because his boohaha's give me headaches. But just as I was flipping through CNBC, there he was talking about "oil scarcity" as the new reality.
I'm not sure whether the Investor Heads who watch his show understand what that means on a personal level or to our society as a whole. They're probably just trying to rearrange their investment portfolios to make tons of cash from the coming oil collapse. Do as Vinod would do. Buy ethanol. Buy "alternative technologies" --there's the answer. Isn't capitalism cool? :-(
(P.S. I'm waiting for the Cramer show on how make money from the coming extinction level asteroid impact. The $ROI should be, well, "astronomical".)
Capitalism is cool, just not perfect. At least with Capitalism you have the freedom to act in response to Peak Oil, get the job you want, live where you want, drive the car you want and not be taxed to death by the government.
It's not perfect but beats the crap out of the alternatives.
Capitalism's weakness is its inability to provide essential services to folks who can't afford them especially education and health care. The lack of universal health care in the US is something every visiting European head of state should emphasise as something shameful. The lack of consistent educational standards with equitable funding is also a source of shame. But OTOH these things show how successful the GOP has been in upholding its core beliefs.
Yeah, I thought America worked a lot better when there was regulated capitalism and some of the better aspects of socialism, especially in the educational system.
Now it's just a shell being looted by the world's rich ...
At least with Capitalism you have the freedom to act in response to Peak Oil
First off, don't label me a commie. I know what that system is about & I don't advocate it. (It is the ultimate cronyism system.)
But in so far as "Capitalism" is concerned, George Bush gets it right when he says we are the "ownership society".
Ownership means being able to lock everyone else out from "your property". GM and Ford "own" the means of production for making hybrid plug-in vehicles, not me. I don't have "freedom" to use their facilities as I please --to build PEHV's for example. Quite the opposite. Unless I can raise the Venture Capital funding for capitalizing an enterpise, I do not have any real ability to respond in scale to the Peak Oil problem.
The "freedom" you think we have is an illusion.
But if you must, keep believing.
I believe that Tony Blair made the ultimate comment. You measure the true value of a nation by "how many people are trying to get in and how many people are trying to get out"
Obviously we have more people wanting to get in - and not just the illegals. Last time I looked we are thinking about building a fence to keep people out.
Hmmm... maybe with all our problems this this is a good place to live, and that we have more freedoms compared to other places.
My suggestion - if there is a political system that suites you better find that country and move there. We won't stop you.
One hopes Capitalism makes for a working market-based economy. Market failure occurs for a number of well known reasons. One is information asymmetry where buyer or seller knows something the other does not. Lack of transparency about oil reserves is slowly breaking down. Relevant to missing consumer response is marketing (automakers spend the most of any industry advertising), paucity of time for consumers to spend making informed, forward-looking decisions, profit optimization (only sell most profitable, i.e. largest vehicles in US market) and utter lack of government willpower to regulate the market, not to limit choices, but to increase them. ...and when I say choice I mean encouraging lots of small auto startups like Tesla Motors.
Of course, this may prove temporary, again, but over the past 3 or 4 months, it does seem that the Iraqi government has gotten a better hand on energy security, especially in the north.
The American media, meanwhile, continues to insist on their doom and gloom analysis of Iraq as a whole, failing to take note of the incredible progress this Iraqi government has made in winning over the respect of Iraqis themselves and of Middle Easterners in general.
Remember, this is a government which many originally wrote off as either a U.S. puppet or a weak, place-filler which wouldn't even make it through to the end of its term.
Among the most encouraging recent developments:
Iraqi government firmly supports Iran with respect to its nuclear ambitions.
Iraqi government firmly supports Hezbollah and its goals with respect to Israel.
Iraqi government says that state to maintain, "complete control," over Iraq's oil industry, but notes that Iraq will also be willing to utilize foreign companies and foreign capital, "where necessary."
The bottom line is, this is a fiercly independent government which represents the views of the majority of Iraqis on the full spectrum of issues they find important. At this point, no one can claim that Iraq is governed by a, "puppet regime."
Why is this so important? It was only be winning over the respect of the Iraqi people that this government was going to survive and bring long-term stability and prosperity to Iraq. They have done this by doing what any good government should do, listening to the people and respecting their views. It took a lot of balls, but this is exactly what Iraq's leaders have done. This bodes very well for the future of Iraq.
Also, with regards to the 2.5 million barrels per day number mentioned above, note that this has been achieved without a penny of foreign investment. This is a 100% Iraqi owned and operated business, with 100% of the revenue and profits going to the Iraqi government and the Iraqi people. Look for that number to continue to rise, with occassional setbacks, in the years to come.
Personally, I have been very impressed with everything this government has said and done of late. They definitely seem to, "get it," as far as who they need to answer to: Iraqis, not Americans. They have also reached out to their neighbors, Iran, Syria etc. in ways which will be very beneficial to the Iraqi economy in the longterm, although, again, it took a lot of balls to do it in the face of American pressure.
Will Iraq be able to deliver on their production goals of 6-8 million barrels per day within 10 years? Many challenges remain (the insurgency, corruption, etc.), but the way this government has performed recently, I wouldn't put it past them.
Why does the American media insist on painting such a bleak picture with regards to the future of Iraq? After all, if Iraqis could have asked for one thing to emerge in the aftermath of this horrible war, it would have been exactly what they have gotten: a fiercly independent government which reponds to their needs and not to the needs of the occupiers. The heroic actions of both ordinary Iraqis and their leaders have been completly ignored by the American media. Ten years from now, Iraq will be a far more proseperous place than it is today, even pessimists would probably give them 5 million barrels a day of production by that point, and Iraqis will be able to look back with pride and honor at the way they contronted the challenges of the last few years. I, for one, admire the way they have handled it.
...as far as oil prices, we have bounced off the recent low in the high 69's, after the current uptick, look for a new lower-low below 69 within the next couple of weeks.
I don't think they're, "playing it safe," I think they're profoundly confused.
As for Iraq not being a country in ten years, I don't see that happening either. There are many countries around (maybe all countries) with disgruntled minorities (think Canada) who toy with the idea of separating. It doen't tend to happen, though, as long as the majority wants the country to remain together. In Iraq, the majority, both Shia and Sunni, want nothing to do with a breakup of Iraq. Sure, there are Kurds who might want their own state, but you could say the same thing about Turkey. And I don't hear anyone talking about Turkey not being a country in ten years.
I guess I just feel like something good is happening in the ME. The way these people handle incredibly complex and difficult situations with ease amazes me. The average American would pee his pants just being within a thousand miles of a place like Iraq, but the average Middle Easterner just goes about his business, as calmly and with as much composure as ever. If you look at history, it's not hard to see that great cultures often emerge out of very difficult situations. In fact, I'm not sure a great culture ever emerged without that sort of, "trial by fire." A great example of this is the Jewish culture which emerged in the early 20th century. They had developed such an incredible culture (a superior culture, in many respects) that the rest of humanity became terrified of them. The people of the Middle East have been suffering the same kind of persecution that the Jews once suffered for many years now. I wouldn't be surprised if the end effect of this persecution doesn't end up being similar too.
In Iraq, the majority, both Shia and Sunni, want nothing to do with a breakup of Iraq.
I don't think that is true any more. The violence is getting so bad that many people who never considered partition are now seeing it as a possible answer.
The problem is the oil. The Sunni would be left without any, and they're not likely to accept that.
You're right, if the Sunnis had any oil, they would want to separate from the rest of Iraq, but since they don't, that isn't an option for them. As the ruling majority, the Shias have made it very clear that they want to keep Iraq in one piece. That leaves the Kurds, who find themselves in the same position as the Kurds in Turkey, or in several other countries.
This idea that Iraqis are just cruising through life with smooth equinimity is a bit deluded, I think. In the US the equivalent carnage would claim a new 9/11 every 3 days or so. We still talk about that day like it was a tragedy without parallel in human history (and I was a very short distance away that morning and watched it all happen, so I hardly would minimize its horror.) In Iraq, the entire professional class -- not just the petroleum engineers -- has emigrated en masse. An unfailing indicator of a society that's failing catastrophically. I read recently that as much as 90% of the population of Baghdad now has PTSD or other psychological problems from living in abject terror and watching the slaughter day after day -- yet there is not a single child psychologist left in the entire city, and only a very small number of psychiatrists.
I'm a pretty voracious reader of news and current events and I have not seen much to support the perspective that you speak of. Instead, I see in the New York Times last week that many inside the Bush administration (hardly pessimists when it comes to Iraq!) are beginning to acknowledge that democracy might not work as a political system in Iraq and are considering "alternatives". (The story got a lot of play, and is easy to find if you haven't seen it.)
So, a challenge: I don't buy that nobody is getting the Iraq story right (except you). Can you provide some links or names of journalists who are covering the situation consistently and capturing this burgeoning and robust political culture?
I have trouble believing news outfits like the Economist and the LA Times and the General Electric corp are really sandbagging this coverage. But prove me wrong.
I'm not saying that what they report with regards to the civil war going on in Iraq right now is wrong, but let's face it, that was the inevitable result of an invasion and takeover by a hated foreign power. What I'm saying is that something profoudly right has occurred in the last year or so, which has gone completely unnoticed by the media, and that is the formation of a fiercly independent Iraqi government, not at all beholden to U.S. influence, and very responsive to the will of the majority of Iraqis. It didn't necessarily have to happen this way, in fact, it wasn't supposed to. By this point, a U.S. frontman was supposed to be firmly in power over there (think Alawi or Chalabi), the oil industry was supposed to have been privatized and taken over by ExxonMobil and Begin Pedaling (BP), and the Iraqi government was supposed to be spending what little money they did receive from their oil industry on weapons made by Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics, instead, we have a very anti-american regime in place (anti-american, but pro-iraqi), the oil industry is firmly in state hands, and they're buying most of their weaponry from Russia. I celebrate this! The Iraqi people deserve an independent government and, remarkably, and I think they deserve all the credit in the world for this, since it flew in the face of everything the U.S. had planned for them, they managed to get one. The media is doing a good job covering the Iraqi civil war, but a lousy job covering the emergence of this startlingly independent and increasingly succesful and respected, pro-iraqi government. You mention that the Bush administration is now turning against democracy in Iraq...that's my point!
They might be staking out independent positions, but that doesn't mean they're a viable entity. There is certainly some fierce independence in any failed state -- doesn't mean it's not a catastrophic outcome. Read this recently:
"A minimally viable central government is built on at least three foundations: the coercive capacity to maintain order, an administrative apparatus that can deliver government services and directives to society, and the resources to manage these functions. The Iraqi government has none of these attributes -- and no prospect of developing them. It has no coercive capacity. The national army we hear so much about is actually trained and commanded by the Americans, while the police forces are largely controlled by local governments and have few, if any, viable links to the central government in Baghdad. (Only the Special Forces, whose death-squad activities in the capital have lately been in the news, have any formal relationship with the elected government; and they have more enduring ties to the U.S. military that created them and the Shia militias who staffed them.)
Administratively, the Iraqi government has no existence outside Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone -- and little presence within it. Whatever local apparatus exists elsewhere in the country is led by local leaders, usually with little or no loyalty to the central government and not dependent on it for resources it doesn't, in any case, possess. In Baghdad itself, this is clearly illustrated in the vast Shiite slum of Sadr city, controlled by Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and his elaborate network of political clerics. (Even U.S. occupation forces enter that enormous swath of the capital only in large brigades, braced for significant firefights.) In the major city of the Shia south, Basra, local clerics lead a government that alternately ignores and defies the central government on all policy issues from oil to women's rights; in Sunni cities like Tal Afar and Ramadi, where major battles with the Americans alternate with insurgent control, the government simply has no presence whatsoever. In Kurdistan in the north, the Kurdish leadership maintains full control of all local governments.
As for resources, with 85% of the country's revenues deriving from oil, all you really need to know is that oil-rich Iraq is also suffering from an "acute fuel shortage" (including soaring prices, all-night lines at gas stations, and a deal to get help from neighboring Syria which itself has minimal refining capacity). The almost helpless Iraqi government has had little choice but to accept the dictates of American advisors and of the International Monetary Fund about exactly how what energy resources exist will be used. Paying off Saddam-era debt, reparations to Kuwait from the Gulf War of 1990, and the needs of the U.S.-controlled national army have had first claim. With what remains so meager that it cannot sustain a viable administrative apparatus in Baghdad, let alone the rest of the country, there is barely enough to spare for the government leadership to line their own pockets.
Reading your first post I was wondering if this was some kind of strange dark humor or if you really believed this.
Let's just start nasty little colonial wars every place we can think of and watch the world become a better place. If you believe hard enough it will be true.
Yeah, and if you believe hard enough (no pun intended) you might actually think you dated someone who bore a resemblance to that oil fairy Leanan posted a picture of above. Come on now!
Take the wings off the model and you get a Goth Chick found in any mall in the USA. My step daughter though a redhead makes Goth look cool. Take it from me, There are a lot of Ladies that dress like that or less so that I could have dated if I wanted to, but I doubt you would believe me. Goth and Pre-Goth looking ladies have been around in the sub-culture Hippie and Flower children and Back to Nature groups for decades. I just happen to have been a Fringe person most of my life. My current female interest could dress in the black and thigh high boots and you could easily paste on wings, Not My thing, But hey.
You should be careful in your Blanket statements that OldHippie or anyone else could only dream of dating a lady like the Oil Fairy of above. I am almost positive they were not wearing wings at the time.
This is a good article that discusses the global personnel shortage.
BTW, based on the 2004 list of top 10 net oil exporters (Iraq was not in the top 10), production by the top 10, relative to December, fell at an annual rate of about 7% through May (EIA). This suggests that their net exports are probably falling at double digit annual rates.
Tuesday, August 22, 2006 By Chip Cummins, The Wall Street Journal
Excerpts:
Mr. Jibouri's tumultuous experiences in the Iraqi (oil) industry illustrate why it is struggling.
Mr. Jibouri hails from a prominent Sunni farming family near the city of Mosul in the north. After studying petroleum economics in Scotland, he returned to Iraq in the early 1980s and joined the oil-marketing agency. He was part of a team of 14 who worked two shifts, fielding bids for Iraq's crude oil from Asian, European and American buyers by phone, fax and telex machine.
After Iraq's first free elections last year, politicians sounded out Mr. Jibouri about staying on as trade minister or taking the top job again at Somo. But he says many of the top technicians he had worked with had left, and political appointees bloated the agency.
His other worry was violence. Last year, just before Mr. Jibouri stepped down as trade minister, gunmen killed one of his deputies, riddling the man's car with bullets as he drove to work.
A few months later, Mr. Jibouri packed up and moved his wife and three children to Amman. "I wanted to stay in Baghdad," Mr. Jibouri said on a recent afternoon over grilled fish at a new Amman restaurant serving Iraqi dishes and filled with exiles. "But it was impossible. If you are honest you will be killed."
Unfortunately, Iraqi Sunnis like the one you described above will probably end up suffering the same fate as African-Americans and other minorites here in the U.S., marginalization. The oil industry in Iraq, which is already largely Shia dominated, will no doubt become even more so, but then again, when was the last time a major U.S. oil company was run by a black CEO? Let's not confuse the typical persecution of minorities which takes place in every democracy on earth (after all, that's what democracy is all about, majority rule, which must sound pretty horrifying if you happen to be a minority), with the idea that the Iraqi government can't effectively manage their oil industry. Just look at how well they're doing now, finding a way to INCREASE production to 2.5 million barrels a day in the midst of a civil war, to get an idea of what they might be capable of in the future.
I try to avoid personalizing the discussions on these boards as it is always better to debate ideas rather than question a person's character. However, I agree that many of SAT's statements have been very strange, such as the idea that grocery baggers are fully invested in oil futures and created a commodity bubble. If SAT really is a commodities trader of any sort, he most likely is a very inexperienced youngster playing with other people's money. I remember my own days as an intern when I thought I knew it all.
The Last Sasquatch is a much more credible source of market views.
I think that SAT's prediction of oil below $60 this fall reflects the conventional wisdom.
I see Westtexas, you got a shout-out on Kunstler's Daily Grunt. I'm jealous.
I guess that Jim and I are both now persona non grata in certain circles.
In regard to the conventional wisdom stuff about oil prices, I keep having this vision of the various members of the "Iron Triangle" linking hands and chanting "We have plenty of oil. .. We have plenty of oil," thinking if they repeat it often enough, it will be true.
Anything your heart desires will come to you
If your heart is in your dreams, no request is too extreme
When you wish upon a star as dreamers do
Like a bolt out of the blue, fate steps in and sees you thru
When you wish upon a star, your dreams come true"
-Jiminy Cricket
That is the way Simmons & Udall end their EB piece.
Our society is deeply infected with fairy tales. It starts at childhood and goes on and on: Cinderella, Sleeping Beauty, Beauty and the Beast, Jack and the Oil Beanstalk ...
Our beanstalk. Our Golden Goose: Oil gushing up from the ground, forever and happily ever after.
Reminds me of a joke:
Two old friends bump into each other as they walk their dogs in a downtown area. "Hey, let's do drinks at that bar across the street," says one. "Can't, we got these dogs" the other explains. "No problem" says the first, "Still got your sunglasses? OK, then do as I do."
The second guy watches with amazement as his friend puts on a pair of sunglasses and approaches the bouncer. "No dogs allowed." "Oh, I'm sorry. I'm blind. This is my seeing eye dog." Oh sorry man, that's different, go on in.
Second guy tries the same thing. The bouncer says, No way dude, I've never seen a Chiwawa as a seeing eye dog.
What! They gave me a Chee wah wah?
Sur it's the same or better in LA San Fran NYC
*better protect your rights to name. I've got a screen play almost finished and a comic-book in the works. I'm gonna be snapping up the copyright soon. Last chance.
I don't have the transcript yet, but you can now buy the CD (details follow). Matt and Jim had never met until that night, and I don't think that they had even talked to each other. Jim was in the studio with Glenn Mitchell at KERA (the local PBS station) and Matt was calling in on a phone line, after giving a speech at the Petroleum Club. (The previous day, I had driven Jim and John Galvin, a reporter, all over the suburban wasteland that is the DFW Metroplex, in search of little pockets of New Urbanism--a memorable experience, I can assure you.)
In any case, Matt and Jim, coming from vastly different backgrounds, were basically finishing each other's sentences. I highly recommend this CD. It's about 50 minutes long, and it is a great way to introduce people to Peak Oil. They can listen to the CD in their cars going to and from work (a little ironic don't you think?).
From KERA 90.1:
KERA 90.1 can provide additional CDs for $10 each. Interested parties should send a check or money order along with details about the program (date, etc.) to:
Talk Show CD Request
KERA 90.1
3000 Harry Hines Blvd.
Dallas, TX 75201
Congratulations.
About a decade ago a man named Alan Sokal became 'persona non grata' in postmodernist circles. In both cases these circles consisted of people believing themself morally superiour to the rest of us.
And in both cases these people are really nothing more than filth.
Compared to all pre-car transportation methods for personal use, it's tantamount to all of us being given pilots licenses and jets by comparison. Could someone with a 50 mile commute do it on a mere bicycle? No. The sheer speed created the sprawl we face today. For those who grew up in the suburbs, 10 miles is close while someone like me who grew up in a city with a carless family would call it appropriately far. But take away the car, and suburbanites are in for a shock! By public transit, a visit to my dad (after a divorce) took all day, but a car trip was like an hour to a town 70 miles away.
An interesting thing about my mindset comes up. As a kid, separated from my dad by the great distance, I developed an interest in aviation due to a wish to reconnect with him. I daydreamed of a car-sized jet plane to drive to that town!
The "arterials" made a huge difference. Two one-way, three-lane roads running through the city. Many of the residents still harbor great resentment over those arterials. They cut through many fine old neighborhoods, doing very bad things to property values and quality of life. And of course, traffic has increased so much that it takes just about as long as before the arterials were built.
You never know who reads this stuff. I just got an e-mail from a researcher at Sandia Labs. They are deeply concerned about the energy situation. From his e-mail: 'We are all researchers with strong interests in helping our nation with whatever challenges confront it. Right now, we believe that is energy."
Anyhow, ask him what he can do about people who drive 20 miles to work every day, drive their kids to school and to soccer practice, drive to the movies, drive to visit their friends, drive to get groceries, and have 3000+ sq ft homes. How about moving all that stuff close enough together so that they can walk? Can Sandia figure out a way to do that ? Then we can get them started on how to grow food locally.
"...The idea that hedge funds can hold up oil for two years now to me seems just plain stupid. I think we should recognize that someone, some company, some country, would have woken up to the idea that it was hedge funds that are holding it up and flood the world with oil. But no one can. They can't even get the pipelines working to take advantage of it, for heaven's sake..."
At least some people are starting to wake up.
I'm not sure whether the Investor Heads who watch his show understand what that means on a personal level or to our society as a whole. They're probably just trying to rearrange their investment portfolios to make tons of cash from the coming oil collapse. Do as Vinod would do. Buy ethanol. Buy "alternative technologies" --there's the answer. Isn't capitalism cool? :-(
(P.S. I'm waiting for the Cramer show on how make money from the coming extinction level asteroid impact. The $ROI should be, well, "astronomical".)
It's not perfect but beats the crap out of the alternatives.
Isn't that exactly the problem?
The problem is that it hasn't been.
Now it's just a shell being looted by the world's rich ...
Very sad.
First off, don't label me a commie. I know what that system is about & I don't advocate it. (It is the ultimate cronyism system.)
But in so far as "Capitalism" is concerned, George Bush gets it right when he says we are the "ownership society".
Ownership means being able to lock everyone else out from "your property". GM and Ford "own" the means of production for making hybrid plug-in vehicles, not me. I don't have "freedom" to use their facilities as I please --to build PEHV's for example. Quite the opposite. Unless I can raise the Venture Capital funding for capitalizing an enterpise, I do not have any real ability to respond in scale to the Peak Oil problem.
The "freedom" you think we have is an illusion.
But if you must, keep believing.
Maybe you can briefly describe the alternatives, or point to some literature.
I'm also curious to know how you suggest that growth, the sine qua non of capitalism, can be everlastingly fuelled.
Obviously we have more people wanting to get in - and not just the illegals. Last time I looked we are thinking about building a fence to keep people out.
Hmmm... maybe with all our problems this this is a good place to live, and that we have more freedoms compared to other places.
My suggestion - if there is a political system that suites you better find that country and move there. We won't stop you.
Everyone wanted to be on the Titanic once, too.
In news which seems to have gone largely ignored here at TOD, Iraq has gotten their oil production back up to 2.5 million barrels a day:
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7B2395C FE1-F843-41E2-8336-6293779F7D63%7D&keyword=
http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?storyid=1093123919
Of course, this may prove temporary, again, but over the past 3 or 4 months, it does seem that the Iraqi government has gotten a better hand on energy security, especially in the north.
The American media, meanwhile, continues to insist on their doom and gloom analysis of Iraq as a whole, failing to take note of the incredible progress this Iraqi government has made in winning over the respect of Iraqis themselves and of Middle Easterners in general.
Remember, this is a government which many originally wrote off as either a U.S. puppet or a weak, place-filler which wouldn't even make it through to the end of its term.
Among the most encouraging recent developments:
- Iraqi government firmly supports Iran with respect to its nuclear ambitions.
- Iraqi government firmly supports Hezbollah and its goals with respect to Israel.
- Iraqi government says that state to maintain, "complete control," over Iraq's oil industry, but notes that Iraq will also be willing to utilize foreign companies and foreign capital, "where necessary."
The bottom line is, this is a fiercly independent government which represents the views of the majority of Iraqis on the full spectrum of issues they find important. At this point, no one can claim that Iraq is governed by a, "puppet regime."Why is this so important? It was only be winning over the respect of the Iraqi people that this government was going to survive and bring long-term stability and prosperity to Iraq. They have done this by doing what any good government should do, listening to the people and respecting their views. It took a lot of balls, but this is exactly what Iraq's leaders have done. This bodes very well for the future of Iraq.
Also, with regards to the 2.5 million barrels per day number mentioned above, note that this has been achieved without a penny of foreign investment. This is a 100% Iraqi owned and operated business, with 100% of the revenue and profits going to the Iraqi government and the Iraqi people. Look for that number to continue to rise, with occassional setbacks, in the years to come.
Personally, I have been very impressed with everything this government has said and done of late. They definitely seem to, "get it," as far as who they need to answer to: Iraqis, not Americans. They have also reached out to their neighbors, Iran, Syria etc. in ways which will be very beneficial to the Iraqi economy in the longterm, although, again, it took a lot of balls to do it in the face of American pressure.
Will Iraq be able to deliver on their production goals of 6-8 million barrels per day within 10 years? Many challenges remain (the insurgency, corruption, etc.), but the way this government has performed recently, I wouldn't put it past them.
Why does the American media insist on painting such a bleak picture with regards to the future of Iraq? After all, if Iraqis could have asked for one thing to emerge in the aftermath of this horrible war, it would have been exactly what they have gotten: a fiercly independent government which reponds to their needs and not to the needs of the occupiers. The heroic actions of both ordinary Iraqis and their leaders have been completly ignored by the American media. Ten years from now, Iraq will be a far more proseperous place than it is today, even pessimists would probably give them 5 million barrels a day of production by that point, and Iraqis will be able to look back with pride and honor at the way they contronted the challenges of the last few years. I, for one, admire the way they have handled it.
...as far as oil prices, we have bounced off the recent low in the high 69's, after the current uptick, look for a new lower-low below 69 within the next couple of weeks.
Playing it safe. Until now anyone painting a positive picture has ended up looking like a fool.
Ten years from now, Iraq will be a far more proseperous place than it is today,
In ten years there won't be an Iraq. Iraq is an artificial state invented by the british that is now falling apart into 3 seperate entities.
As for Iraq not being a country in ten years, I don't see that happening either. There are many countries around (maybe all countries) with disgruntled minorities (think Canada) who toy with the idea of separating. It doen't tend to happen, though, as long as the majority wants the country to remain together. In Iraq, the majority, both Shia and Sunni, want nothing to do with a breakup of Iraq. Sure, there are Kurds who might want their own state, but you could say the same thing about Turkey. And I don't hear anyone talking about Turkey not being a country in ten years.
I guess I just feel like something good is happening in the ME. The way these people handle incredibly complex and difficult situations with ease amazes me. The average American would pee his pants just being within a thousand miles of a place like Iraq, but the average Middle Easterner just goes about his business, as calmly and with as much composure as ever. If you look at history, it's not hard to see that great cultures often emerge out of very difficult situations. In fact, I'm not sure a great culture ever emerged without that sort of, "trial by fire." A great example of this is the Jewish culture which emerged in the early 20th century. They had developed such an incredible culture (a superior culture, in many respects) that the rest of humanity became terrified of them. The people of the Middle East have been suffering the same kind of persecution that the Jews once suffered for many years now. I wouldn't be surprised if the end effect of this persecution doesn't end up being similar too.
I don't think that is true any more. The violence is getting so bad that many people who never considered partition are now seeing it as a possible answer.
The problem is the oil. The Sunni would be left without any, and they're not likely to accept that.
This idea that Iraqis are just cruising through life with smooth equinimity is a bit deluded, I think. In the US the equivalent carnage would claim a new 9/11 every 3 days or so. We still talk about that day like it was a tragedy without parallel in human history (and I was a very short distance away that morning and watched it all happen, so I hardly would minimize its horror.) In Iraq, the entire professional class -- not just the petroleum engineers -- has emigrated en masse. An unfailing indicator of a society that's failing catastrophically. I read recently that as much as 90% of the population of Baghdad now has PTSD or other psychological problems from living in abject terror and watching the slaughter day after day -- yet there is not a single child psychologist left in the entire city, and only a very small number of psychiatrists.
I'm a pretty voracious reader of news and current events and I have not seen much to support the perspective that you speak of. Instead, I see in the New York Times last week that many inside the Bush administration (hardly pessimists when it comes to Iraq!) are beginning to acknowledge that democracy might not work as a political system in Iraq and are considering "alternatives". (The story got a lot of play, and is easy to find if you haven't seen it.)
So, a challenge: I don't buy that nobody is getting the Iraq story right (except you). Can you provide some links or names of journalists who are covering the situation consistently and capturing this burgeoning and robust political culture?
I have trouble believing news outfits like the Economist and the LA Times and the General Electric corp are really sandbagging this coverage. But prove me wrong.
They might be staking out independent positions, but that doesn't mean they're a viable entity. There is certainly some fierce independence in any failed state -- doesn't mean it's not a catastrophic outcome. Read this recently:
"A minimally viable central government is built on at least three foundations: the coercive capacity to maintain order, an administrative apparatus that can deliver government services and directives to society, and the resources to manage these functions. The Iraqi government has none of these attributes -- and no prospect of developing them. It has no coercive capacity. The national army we hear so much about is actually trained and commanded by the Americans, while the police forces are largely controlled by local governments and have few, if any, viable links to the central government in Baghdad. (Only the Special Forces, whose death-squad activities in the capital have lately been in the news, have any formal relationship with the elected government; and they have more enduring ties to the U.S. military that created them and the Shia militias who staffed them.)
Administratively, the Iraqi government has no existence outside Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone -- and little presence within it. Whatever local apparatus exists elsewhere in the country is led by local leaders, usually with little or no loyalty to the central government and not dependent on it for resources it doesn't, in any case, possess. In Baghdad itself, this is clearly illustrated in the vast Shiite slum of Sadr city, controlled by Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and his elaborate network of political clerics. (Even U.S. occupation forces enter that enormous swath of the capital only in large brigades, braced for significant firefights.) In the major city of the Shia south, Basra, local clerics lead a government that alternately ignores and defies the central government on all policy issues from oil to women's rights; in Sunni cities like Tal Afar and Ramadi, where major battles with the Americans alternate with insurgent control, the government simply has no presence whatsoever. In Kurdistan in the north, the Kurdish leadership maintains full control of all local governments.
As for resources, with 85% of the country's revenues deriving from oil, all you really need to know is that oil-rich Iraq is also suffering from an "acute fuel shortage" (including soaring prices, all-night lines at gas stations, and a deal to get help from neighboring Syria which itself has minimal refining capacity). The almost helpless Iraqi government has had little choice but to accept the dictates of American advisors and of the International Monetary Fund about exactly how what energy resources exist will be used. Paying off Saddam-era debt, reparations to Kuwait from the Gulf War of 1990, and the needs of the U.S.-controlled national army have had first claim. With what remains so meager that it cannot sustain a viable administrative apparatus in Baghdad, let alone the rest of the country, there is barely enough to spare for the government leadership to line their own pockets.
Let's just start nasty little colonial wars every place we can think of and watch the world become a better place. If you believe hard enough it will be true.
You should be careful in your Blanket statements that OldHippie or anyone else could only dream of dating a lady like the Oil Fairy of above. I am almost positive they were not wearing wings at the time.
SelfAggravating, one of our greatest beloved bullshitters at TOD.
See the rationale at the Armed Forces Journal.
BTW, based on the 2004 list of top 10 net oil exporters (Iraq was not in the top 10), production by the top 10, relative to December, fell at an annual rate of about 7% through May (EIA). This suggests that their net exports are probably falling at double digit annual rates.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/06234/715405-28.stm
Brain drain slows flow of Iraqi oil
Tuesday, August 22, 2006 By Chip Cummins, The Wall Street Journal
Excerpts:
Mr. Jibouri's tumultuous experiences in the Iraqi (oil) industry illustrate why it is struggling.
Mr. Jibouri hails from a prominent Sunni farming family near the city of Mosul in the north. After studying petroleum economics in Scotland, he returned to Iraq in the early 1980s and joined the oil-marketing agency. He was part of a team of 14 who worked two shifts, fielding bids for Iraq's crude oil from Asian, European and American buyers by phone, fax and telex machine.
After Iraq's first free elections last year, politicians sounded out Mr. Jibouri about staying on as trade minister or taking the top job again at Somo. But he says many of the top technicians he had worked with had left, and political appointees bloated the agency.
His other worry was violence. Last year, just before Mr. Jibouri stepped down as trade minister, gunmen killed one of his deputies, riddling the man's car with bullets as he drove to work.
A few months later, Mr. Jibouri packed up and moved his wife and three children to Amman. "I wanted to stay in Baghdad," Mr. Jibouri said on a recent afternoon over grilled fish at a new Amman restaurant serving Iraqi dishes and filled with exiles. "But it was impossible. If you are honest you will be killed."
The Last Sasquatch is a much more credible source of market views.