389 comments on DrumBeat: August 23, 2006
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GAIA Host Collective
It is pointless to control population without also understanding the impact of individual (and collective)ecological footprints, just as it is futile to moderate individual (and collective) ecological footprints without understanding and adjusting population.
Well, overpoplation will, too, but that will be a lot nastier than not being able to afford an SUV or plasma TV.
And the market will not take care of overpopulation. The laws of nature will eventually curb overpopulation, not the laws of the market.
Methinks you are mistaken the market with Mother Nature. Malthusian principles will prevail in spite of the market, not because of it.
No, I think what will fix it is the market. We are using more than our share of resources because we're sucking them from the rest of the world. That won't go on forever.
No. what will "fix" it is war.
(It being America's taking of 25% of resource flow in comparison to her 8% rank in world population)
You forget that we are the "ownership society"
We "own" all the resources of the world and if they don't hand the stuff over to us, we go to fight them "over there" for it before they fight us over here.
Our notion of being the "ownership society" will end when we are bankrupted by our nonprofitable military adventures or when "they who hate our freedom to take what we want" vanquish us militarily.
J. Paul Getty
There is nothing inherent in the market that will assist the current have nots to become equal with the haves. While it may be true that we will not always have more than our fair share, the market will not be the instrument that changes that. In fact, if it is ever changed it will be in spite of the market, not because of it.
And you said, in your previous post, that the market will also take care of the overpopulation problem. It is the principles of Malthus that will eventually fix that problem, not the market. What the market will do is insure that those with the most have the best chance of survival. Very unfair but that is just the difference between the market and Malthus. (Again, fair only in the moral sense.)
Who said anything about equitable?
Utimately the rules of nature and the market system is connected. I can best summarize the connection between markets and nature by borrowing the title of Darwins famous book "Survival of the fittest". Those without wealth, resources or can't adapt will suffer and probably die off.
The rules of survival, the market, and natural selection are all the related. People that can adapt and have access to the necessary resources will survive. Those without will perish. We can see this all the time in business. Successful businesses that provide good or services that meet the demands of tje market survive and flourish, those that don't go bankrupt. Businesses also need to adapt to the changing market. For instance during much of the 20th century, camera film manufactures and processors flourished. Kodak was part of the dow 30 for many decades. When film was replaced by digital photography, these companies no longer served the market. Some adapted and some went bankrupt.
Market forces will bring about changes, but they aren't going to save humanity from the trouble ahead. The only option is to adapt or die. Those that believe that Communism and socialism can solve the problem are dead wrong. Our planet's history has been dominated by the market system since life began about 2 billion years ago. During this time, nature has never developed an eco. system based upon the ideas of communism. It has always been based upon a market system and always will be. In the end the rules of the market system will prevail, it just won't be one that is any regards, equitable.
No, "the market" is a much too coarse approximation of Darwinian selection AND vice-versa!
Survival of the fitest does NOT have the same meaning in these two cases.
This is all because of several reasons, among which :
- In nature more is not necessarily better.
- In nature the various needs are regulated by idiosyncratic mechanisms which do not "trade" among themselves thru a neutral medium, neither money nor raw energy, a lack of such or such protein is not "fungible".
- In nature cooperation between individuals, groups, species and even across genres (bees / flowers) is regulated by hard-wired mechanisms which evolve only VERY slowly, like our "basic instincts".
In the market these are replaced by the rule of law which can be arbitrarily crazy and changing fast.
Never had a tax rebate repealed or the like?
In the end the rules of the market system will prevail, it just won't be one that is any regards, equitable.
Nice to you to care for equity but this is not the direst problem, SUSTAINABILITY is the direst problem.
The market does not appear to be sustainable in a FINITE RESSOURCES environment neither are "Communism and socialism" which are just a reframing of the growth trend with more "equity".
Your absolutely correct. Althought I was just refering to the rules that that they share, such as the rules of supply and demand. If a required resource becomes depleted, it becomes expensive to obtain. For in a drought, food and water are harder to obtain for both man and animals. More labor or energy is required to obtain adquite supplies to sustain life. A society, herd, or even single cell organisms either adapt or fight to obtain what remains. These rules apply to business, societies, or even single cell organisms. The market system isn't fair nor is survival fair.
>Nice to you to care for equity but this is not the direst problem, SUSTAINABILITY is the direst problem.
We don't have a sustainabe system, and there is no way to support 6 Billion or even perhaps even 2 Billion in any sustainable system. FWIW: If I had some sort of magic wand I would use it to waive all these problems away.
Most probably, any other idea beside the "magic wand" ?
Prayer, Rapture, Singularity, Armageddon, Nukular, what's you pick?
Darwinian is right:
When the US is no longer able to import the required amount of fossil fuels, Americans will start to use what ever fuel is available. That being trees, coal, garbage, etc. What ever they can use to heat their homes and run the power grid. Search the financial websites for growth in wood pellet stoves and coal consumption to see that its already begining.
A decline in oil and gas imports will be the beginning of the biggest ecological disaster in history. FWIW: The entire Northeast of the United States was deforested by the beginning of the 20th Century (mostly for heating and steam power). Since that time, the land has recovered because Oil and Gas was cleaner and cheaper than wood and coal. You could say that Oil and Gas production came in the nick of time to prevent a real disaster. This time there is no new source of energy to save us.
In other words, overpopulation will be solved, either by birth control and family planning, or be depopulation. The same with the other problems we currently face.
I would much rather take the first route instead of waiting for Mother Nature to do it for us.
Overpopulation has only 3 solutions as I can see. 1. Mother natures kitchen solution - Global warming or bird flu...or both. 2. War 3. We wake up and convince several generations to stop having babies so we can reduce the global population 2/3rds. (yah right)
Maybe the outcome will be a hybrid, some of Momma's wrath, a few nukes, and then who ever is left is involuntarily forced in realizing that they should have less babies(however this is against procreation principles).
In any case, growth must stop somehow as you stated.
If you have other solutions, love to hear them.
=======It's all about population!
5. Malnutriention resulting in wide spread of pandemic diseases (The dark ages during the little ice age).
If one person makes the decision to only have one child or no childern then somebody else decides they can take up the slack and have extras. The first person had reduced the chance of continuing the blood line and somebody else filled in.
I carpool, but that just allows one other car and that much more gas to be used by others on the road.
I lower my electrical consuption by using a programmable thermostat and turn off the AC during the day. But that just allows somebody to run a little bit cooler without overloading the grid.
Samething with NatGas in the winter. . .
The Easter Island story has been mentioned several times here. I can imagine the last group of survivors as they watch the trees disapear with each day. At some point either one person, a small group, or even the entire population looks at the remaining trees and realizes that they are running out. Maybe even as a collective they decide they should not cut any more down for fires to cook food. But all it takes is one person to decide that they are going to go out and cut down a tree and use the wood for fire. He has just increased his chance of surviving. Then somebody follows suit and cuts down the next tree to increase their chance. As individuals they feel justified because just one tree isn't going to matter, but pretty soon everybody has cut down a tree.
Maybe the person that stood up and said that they need to save the trees holds true and does not cut down a tree. He cannot cook food or provide shelter. His chance of survival is reduced.
Even though the long term solution is to reduce there will always be masses that 'pick up the slack' of those that are conserving. It is human nature - and I don't see how we avoid it.
I conserve, you conserve - sustainable world
I conserve, you don't - I suffer a lot, you enjoy yourself
neither conserves - we both suffer greatly because of an eco-collapse.
There are two ways around it, according to Diamond.
One is to be such a small society that everyone can understand the problem and everyone has a stake in the solution.
The other is a central government strong enough to force compliance.
This is all a problem of priorities, which kind of goals is a "strong enough central government" likely to look for first?
- Survival and enjoyment for government employees (of "sufficient" rank of course).
- Necessary but unpopular measures which may bring trouble with the masses.
As Diamond points out, a king has incentive to protect his kingdom. He gets his wealth from the entire kingdom. And he hopes that his heirs will inherit that wealth one day. He has reason to promote sustainability.
In a democracy, where your time in power may be fleeting, perhaps there's more incentive to just loot the country while you can.
OTOH, our system of government isn't as egalitarian as we like to believe. Maybe King George II would like to leave something for his heirs, future Presidents Jenna and Barbara.
That was Votlaire's idea of an enlightened despot.
That won't work either, not only because we cannot get back to this, but because if by any stroke of luck you DO get an enlightened one this always turn sour in a few generations.
Enlightenment is not hereditary.
Speaking of enlightenment, do you really think that "King George II" COULD manage to "leave something for his heirs" ?
Not that I think it's an option for us, but perhaps the idea that "all despots turn bad eventually" is a myth? Or, as Tainter would put it, it's one of the "nonmaterial elements" used to legitimize our society. The Emperor is a God. Democracy is the best form of government. Etc.
The pretty violent downward adjustment in energy consumption of the 90s was handled, overall, unexpectedly well (no mass starvation or mayhem; human contentment index probably not substantially lowered).
I'm not advocating it as a transposable model or anything. For one thing, I would be prepared to tolerate a fairly high degree of mayhem before surrendering my freedoms. For another, the ratio of "enlightened" despots to overall despots is not terribly high.
Contest. This is a college essay. Or an essay on a college entrance exam (just shutup, and pretend):
Explain what the Eastern Roman Empire did to preserve itself.
All entries must be between 50 and 5000 words. No quotes or links are allowed. Immediate disqualification for any comments that include either.
Points awarded for conciseness, accuracy, and writing style. In that order.
Prizes:
1st) A fictional "Cadillac" mentioned by the Alec Baldwin character in Glengarry Glenross.
2nd) a brand new set of steak knives.
3rd) You're fired.
Now let's progress to the bonus round.
Wait, we have a complaint - somebody is saying you were not actually anwering the question, you were asking a question...Judges?...yes, sorry. Minus 5 points!
Beavis and Butthead? Your remarks?
uhuhhuhheh.
OK. Plus 10.
Final score - 105. Congratulations. You are the Leader.
I've always wondered. Does DIY mean Do It Yourselfer?
uhuhhhuhehuh
Yes, that's what DIY generally stands for. It was a handle I used in another forum, and lack of creativity or a limitation on handle length or a desire to limit typing prohibited using say, "ConcernedButUnpreparedAndNowScared****less" or something. Of how large a company are you CEO?
So now I suppose we have proof that Beavis and Butthead cause brain damage, even in a 30-second spot.
No, it's the crystal-meth, he is hosed.
Byzantium (Eastern Roman Empire) was the only society that ever simplified itself on purpose. At its nadir it was almost completely destroyed. Byzantium had 1/3rd of its population killed by plagues, the currency was so debased that it became no longer used and their empire was at one point almost completely overrun by Visigoths and Arab Muslim invaders yet they were able to recover from their nadir in the 700s and survive till the 13th century (600 years!) even though they faced almost constant invasions from the Muslim empires to the east and goths and other barbarians to the north and west. They were able to do this through a number of clever simplification maneuvers.
- The Government had run out of money to pay soldiers so instead they gave them land in exchange for hereditary military service organized in "themes" or military districts. The soldiers were responsible for purchasing and providing their own rations, equipment, and uniforms. This got rid of almost all the military bureaucracy and a large part of the taxation complexity. Can you imagine the government devolving the military into local farm owner's gun clubs purchasing their own heavy military equipment? It reflects an amount of trust in the people by the government that is unthinkable today.
- The civil administrations were merged into the military. There was no distinction between the military and the local governments. The Military ran the courts, the police, and local government functions. No Posse Comitatus but the military was the equivalent of these local farm owner's gun clubs and would therefore be far more trusted with their authority by the people.
Because of the above reforms soldiers were fighting for their own land and family and the military was exteremely efficient and inventive, the arab invaders were unable to make any headway against them despite almost constant attacks.- They gutted all the glamour of their central government to keep things together. At one point they paid the army by melting down 20,000 pounds of gold from the emporer's throne room. Equivalent to selling off most public lands and buildings. Administrative ranks and honors were done away with.
- Cities contracted to densly packed fortified hilltops. That would mean abandoning the suburbs.
- Aristocratic life (what rich educated people were doing) was focused around the imperial court. Meaning that rich educated people mainly passed the time by hanging out at city hall with the politicians, drinking wine, wearing fancy clothes and gossiping but otherwise didn't have many luxuries, compared to Roman times.
- Education was simplified. Basic math, reading and science were the order of the day. New books were mostly the lives of Saints, the ancient traditions were preserved and copied.
The Western Roman empire collapsed however because they tried to survive by tightening the screws. They raised taxes to very high levels on farmers to fund the inefficient army that was doubled in size. They hyperinflated the currency, they conscripted labor, and tried to control who was in what occupation and increasingly tried to regiment all aspects of life. It failed, the farmers started to abandon their land in protest so the government forced them to be hereditarily bound to the land at which point they welcomed the barbarian invasion and the overthrow of the empire. They took all the productive parts of their society and burned them at the altar of keeping the power structure alive.Tainter points out that a) a government can wreck itself by trying by all means to sustain itself and b) complexity in problem solving destroys governments slowly, subtly over long period of time and that simplification is very hard because so many have tied their interests to growing and maintaining the complexity of the centralized power structure.
This is subject to immediate revision(before 5 am EST) based on actually reading response.
For now it looks pretty good.
Initial estimate 260 points. Leader. Congratulations, you wear the yellow jersey.
Note that it was not without cost, though. They call this period a "dark age." Literacy rates plummeted.
And they basically made the military their government.
Any society trying to get out of the declining marginal returns trap will have some very difficult choices to make. What is worth saving, and what will you sacrifice?
Let's tick off some fun things the market has brought to North Americans
(1) very large homes in sprawling urban zones with as little regulation and planning as tolerble. Hello Lakewood California!
(2) very large motor cars that generally cart around a single occupant.
(3) efficient and effective corn and soy delivery systems, often highly processed, and packaged in shiny objects.
(4) Airconditioning! And the subsequent movement of people from colder north to hot and humid south (beach front property anyone)
(5) overweight, corn fed residents of #4 and #1, drivers of #2 and avid consumers of #3.
(6) Southpark (though maybe this one is a good thing)
Yup, "The Market" will solve our problems just fine. Always has before, always will in the future.
Indeed, if you've read many of my comments here, you'll know I am not a fan of capitalism. I think it is inherently unsustainable.
I'm just saying it will solve the problem of Americans consuming more than their share.
This doesn't mean it will solve the problem of overconsumption in general. It just means the resources will start to flow to the countries that have something other than paper to offer the world. Likely oil-rich countries like Russia.
Why batter ourselves against the wall trying to reduce American consumption? It's going to happen anyway.
Population, OTOH...I think we're in serious danger of losing all the progress we've made toward slowing population growth rates, due to peak oil.
It's a matter of priorities.