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69 comments on Where Are the Hurricanes?

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FTX on August 24, 2006 - 9:15am

A few of the Mets on the Eastern US Weather Board are looking closely at Invest 97L. They think this has the makings of the most dangerous system so far this season. If it develops, then the Western GOM is definitely at risk.

ON 97L..significant threat for western Carib western Gulf

Thoughts on 97L

Interesting last set of model runs- I still think that the track will be farther south than what these runs show, but it does look like the chance of it running WNW right into Central America is less than before. Maybe it can thread the needle and go through the Yucutan Channel, like what the ECMWF has. If so, not good news for the western/central GOM, and gas prices...fill up now

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FTX on August 24, 2006 - 9:30am

Oh, and also it's worth looking at this thread. Statistically, we're only about 30% of the way through the season for major hurricanes (>cat3).

Cumulative percent of Major hurricanes that hit the USA....

30-Jun 2%
15-Jul 3%
31-Jul 6%
15-Aug 18%
31-Aug 35%
15-Sep 57%
30-Sep 82%
15-Oct 95%
31-Oct 100%

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LeGorfou on August 24, 2006 - 6:23pm

How hot is the Gulf compared to last year? Surely that is the important factor as that will effect how stong any storm in the GOM will grow.

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FTX on August 25, 2006 - 4:07am

Both the Caribbean and the Gulf currently have very favourable conditions for hurricane development (sea temps are 29-30 degs) The slow storm season has allowed temps to rise.

The problem so far has been for systems to reach the Gulf without being ripped apart by shear (which could still happen to TD 5). A storm that makes it to the Gulf could intensify rapidly.

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