It's official: Tropical Depression 5 is now Tropical Storm Ernesto.

The StormTrack is predicting that it will become a hurricane, and will have a track something like Dennis.  (Thunder Horse, beware!)

You know, everyone's saying that this season is such a lessened threat than last year, but the fact of the matter is you only need one really BAD hurricane to screw things up for awhile.

I think if anything, Global Warming has made weather prediction much more difficult because we are seeing new patterns all the time....an increase in anomalies (droughts, warm where it should be cold and vice versa, etc.)  

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane that formed in the Gulf and just sat there spinning around for a few days without moving anywhere...kinda like the Great Eye on Jupiter.