The comparison of odds vs cost got me to thinking about housing construction in hurricane areas. One thing to remember about housing is that hurricanes are as a rule going to be stronger at sea than over land, hence the higher probabilities of damage for oil rigs.

Florida, as I remember from building there some years ago, has fairly strict residential construction codes because of wind risk. However, the category of the storm is less important to insurers than the percentage of risk that the house will fall into a zone of high enough wind to exceed the structural criteria. With a cat 5 storm with 150mph winds around the eye at landfall, the odds are pretty good that a house in the larger storm swath will not have to tolerate more than a fraction of this wind.

I remember some carpenters sneering at the hurricane tie-downs we put on the trussed of houses with the remark that this wouldn't prevent a good-sized storm from ripping off the roof. It would prevent the damage, however, in the much larger odds category that the house would likely encounter.

It obviously doesn't take many instances of these actuarial odds being violated to make insurers back off.

Here's a nice ultra-highres wallpaper of where those calmer waters are

Government Owned Offshore Rigs..

Don't forget, this is the Government that's supposed to be small enough to 'drown in a bathtub'..  Careful what you wish for, right?