<DrumBeat: August 28, 2006The Oil DrumFrom the old to the newer, or a thought for Khurais and its companions>
<DrumBeat: August 28, 2006DrumBeatDrumBeat: August 30, 2006>

339 comments on DrumBeat: August 29, 2006

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

PaulusP on August 29, 2006 - 10:23am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"In case of any sanctions against the country, the oil ministry will be in the frontline and we have prepared for serious work in this regard," Nozari assured.

And that "serious work" would be...?

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
roel on August 29, 2006 - 10:55am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And that "serious work" would be...?

Serious digging?

But seriously, Bakhtiari says Iran has only a third of the reserves it offcially states, 35-45 vs 132.5 billion barrels. In that context, they have little time left at the wished-for 5 mbd.
Add to that the fact that they specifically talk about mature fields, and it's not a big surprise if they can't meet the target. In other words: a yearly decline of 10% or more is in the cards.

And serious worrying.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
rwmcalister on August 29, 2006 - 11:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Wouldn't it help Iran's nuclear argument to admit their actual reserves?
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
roel on August 29, 2006 - 11:38am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
To do it officially would be problematic, internationally, inside OPEC, and why be the first, and the voice of doom?
And would the rest of the world really, say, OK, build your nukes?

But don't forget, Bakhtiari doesn't necessarily do things by himself. For all we know, he may well have talked it over at home before going on his world tour. And spread the word in a diplomatic fashion.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Telumehtar on August 29, 2006 - 2:56pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Here is the other facet to consider.  Iran can provide oil, gas, and radioactive material.  Of those three, oil and gas are in high demand, and paying well.  If you were Iran, and you needed to balance out your local energy needs, against your economic needs, how would you divy those resources?

Despite Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions which will gain them additional defense self-reliance, the move to nuclear for energy generation makes both self-reliant, and economic sense as it leaves the oil and gas up for sale to fund the building of a nuclear society.

I don't like the whole idea of them having nukes, but I can easily see why they would want them for both military and civilian uses.

If they are wise enough to see gas and oil as a soon to be dead end, then cash in while they can, and setup a nuclear society after the gas and oil industrial countries come crumbling down.

All and all, I have to give kudos to the Iranian "strategery" and long term positioning, at least from a detached admiring your opponent standpoint.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
roel on August 29, 2006 - 3:15pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Though I see your point, I don't think Iran has any uranium as a resource.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
alistairC on August 29, 2006 - 3:39pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
<a href="http://www.wise-uranium.org/upasi.html#IR">Ah yes they do.</a>

Not huge quantities, but they started production at Saghand this year, and have built a facility to produce 50 tonnes of uranium per year.

That's what makes the enrichment of uranium for civilian use so plausible. Why would they want to rely on imported fuel, with the associated risks of cut-off, when they could master the whole fuel cycle and be independent?

I also think that they are only an adversary because the US wants to pick a fight with them.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Telumehtar on August 29, 2006 - 3:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yup, and I believe there was another geological survey earlier this year which made another discovery of uranium in Iran.

Also as you note but I would like to add emphasis to, that the current capping factor for Iranian Uranium(say that 5 times fast) production is their refining capacity.  If they built additional mills, they could up their yearly volume from 50 tonnes if they desired it.

Iran has most if not all the pieces for a self sufficient nuclear society.  Even with sanctions its going to be tough to stop them.  It will require a military strike to end their nuclear aspirations.

Iran is holding some interesting cards right now, high risk, but potentially high reward also.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
GreyZone on August 29, 2006 - 3:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
They have opened 10 uranium mines since 1988. Although it is not high quality uranium, it is sufficient to power reactors, though perhaps not on the scale Iran might ultimately wish. Also note that the heavy water reactor does not need enrichment and can use uranium to produce plutonium.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.