More on that oil find

"An opportunity like this only comes once every few decades," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Massachusetts.

So that's it chaps - no more discoveries until the 2030s.

On a more serious note, the official releases by Chevron, Devon and Statoil do not mention reserves.  The discussion about "reserves" is not for the Jack prospect but is a guestimate for the whole of this deep water play based on press interviews.

The fact that the field was discovered last year, the well test just reported was conducted during the second quarter of 2006 - does leave me wondering about the timing of this press release - and the media hype surrounding it.

On a different topic, this link goes to the oil market update by Clive Maund - for those who like technical analysis.

http://321energy.com/editorials/maund/maund090706.html

Cry Wolf... I spoke to a seasoned analyst on this today. He thinks it is definitely being over estimated.
Yea, this sort of thing happens al the time in the developing world - but I thought it was illegal in the USA.
3-15 billion barrels at 28,000 feet. Now thats alot of Mongo Nuts..
All of the news reports cite that this will "double the current U.S. reserves", but neglect to discuss the cost of the process, current and future rates of consumption, or address the long lead time required to bring the oil to market.  How do we call them on this?
Here's what I did last night in my Econ class.  A guy behing me was talking up the oil, so I politely interjected.  I explained for one it's 3-15 which is a huge interval.  Second the URR isn't what ultimately matters; if it's in the ground it's not making it to the market.  I gently pushed him in the direction of production numbers being central to reality and he got it real quick.  Made sense to him anyway.  

I went on to point out if it were on the high end at 15, & we were able to MAX it flat out, then we would use it up in less than 2 yrs. He quickly understood how little this is in the BIG picture.

He thanked me for pointing out the discrepancy and started asking questions.  I told him to google peak oil and choose where he wants to start.  He wrote it down and I hope to talk to him tomorrow night and see if he followed through.  Demonstrate your knowledge in a non condescending way to people and they'll do all the talking for you.

It is interesting to see how different people take in and process information and form attitudes and opinions - particularly when it cuts against some preheld conceptions.  Please let us know what happens.  

I introduced a very good friend of mine to the ideas and lent him a copy of End of Suburbia.  His wife scolded me for turning him into a worried doomer (not her phrase), and eventually he turned to a 'negotiator'  which means he looked inside himself and found faith in ethanol, although in general he has just put the whole issue out of his mind, so I don't bring it up any more.  

I think the instinctual response has a lot to do with your age.  When I talk to college peers, they are very receptive b/c I'm literally talking about their entire future adult life.  The whole liberal college experience does seem accurate in many, many cases throughout my experience.  In general people come there to gain knowledge from whomever it touting it.  

Last semester we had a debate in our brand new auditorium for legalizing cannabis and the high times editor stopped in to argue for while we had a retired DEA agent against. I'm currently trying to organize a peak oil debate in this same vein to stir debate among my college.  I've started asking around as to WHO could organize this since I just want to get it started rather than be in it.  It's my last year so I kind of want to do something since I've taken all this information on PO in and truly appreciate the seriousness and dire circumstances we will be facing without action at all levels.

Any one of my parents age and up, won't buy it.  I know there are plenty of you here, but you're able to think independently and actually examine facts rather than advertising and marketing.

Do you ever wonder why we consume so much?  After taking some marketing courses I've come to the firm belief it's marketing's fault.  They are THAT good at what they do.  They use what we've learned from modern Psychology and used it to push the right buttons (hmmm...just like a robot).  Ralph Nader warned against consumerism and he is looking more and more right.

tate,

I'm 29 and father of two young boys. My wife is fairly accepting that we just don't know what lurks around the corner. I've told her I'm a doomer. She gets it. She's less interested in making changes and more interested in enjoying the time we've got. Like Dan Ur said, "Have fun, and do what you need to do to have fun and stay as sane as you want to, and don't worry about it."

I've laid it all out for my parents as well (they are in their late fifties). They logically understand it all. They understand the arguments for peak oil, global warming, overshoot, etc. However, they are not interested in subscribing to it. My dad is an engineer, my mom a public health officer. They are bright people. But I think their experience has been that of better returns each year, with the prospect of improvement each year. They have been told that life can only get better. This is a message they've heard since they were babies, and it continues to be a strong message that they are receptive to. There have been few experiences in their lives to refute this prospect.

I don't want to make this an essay on age-ism, because that is short-sighted and without merit. There are plenty of baby-boomers involved in the debate, with voices on each side of the issue.

But I can identify with your statement about having the rest of your life ahead of you. I feel that to be true, and moreover it is true of my kids. It makes me sad in some ways (the idea that they will experience a lot of turmoil), but I don't think it saddens me as much as it saddens my mom (their grandma). Perhaps I'm just not as entrenched in the idea that life will always get better. Life is what it is. It is what you make of it. Life is impermanence. Accepting that this is true makes it easier to live happily.

Yes tanderson I think you hit it on the head. People tend to believe in what they've actually experienced. So, the Depression kids grew up to be great savers, and the Boomers at a gut level will always believe in Onward and Upward. The Founding Fathers were very much like that, since Onward and Upward was the fundamental experience for them - Ben Franklin had a miserable childhood but was able to go Onward and Upward very well. They all were. Those men founded this country and established its religion, of Onward and Upward lol.

I have a sibling 5 years older than I am, and it's amazing, they're a Boomer and I'm an X'er. We're quite close, but there are fundamental differences in how we think and see the world, how we believe. Their experience has been Onward and Upward, because after all, as a Boomer with tons of influential Boomer friends, how could it be otherwise?

Well, excceptions prove the rule and all that.  I'm a boomer doomer (age 55).  I'm looking forward to the upheaval in a macabre kind of way.  My partner is 44, and she gets it but refuses to think about it.  Partly the reason she avoids examining it too much is because the implications for the lives of her three daughters are so dire.

I gave my 82 year old father a runthrough of my wake-up-the-sheeple Powerpoint last weekend.  He got it instantly, and it scared the heck out of him.  He immediately started thinking who else I ought to give the poresentation to - our family has good left-wing political connections that need to hear the message.  My mother isn't all that interested - she understands the concept, but has enough to worry about in her life already, and the timeline is too long for her to get worked up over.

I then gave the same show to my 19 year old niece and her boyfriend.  They also got it, and even knew a fair bit about it already.  Their reaction was very matter-of-fact.  Sort of, "Yes, we know it's going to happen, but when you're our age life is all about change anyway, so what else is new?"

A fascinating set of reactions.

I've found that people with children tend to have different reactions than those without. Even boomers. The ones with children seem much less inclined to get it than those who do not have them. I think it has something to do with the parenting mindset -not wanting to think of anything bad ever happening to your kids.
I wonder if it's people with dependent children who have the hardest time with this?  If your kids are grown, or you never had any, you are free to contemplate calamity without feeling like you are visualizing a nasty future into existence for helpless children.
Exactly. At least, that's my theory. There are always exceptions of course but who wants to think about something nasty happening to their kids?
I'm a boomer semi-doomer with college-age kids. My experience has been a bit of the inverse. Kids, spouse and older parents all deny Peak Oil and think Dad has just gone Whacko --midlife crisis you know. Kids have seen nothing but suburban good life. My suspicion is that deep down inside they believe every grown-up gets a secret password when they reach 21 years of age and then you just enter it into the ATM and money magically comes out. The whole world is a series of magic acts for them. Turn the key and the car just "goes". Flip computer on and MySpace just happens. A secret "them" out there always comes up with better and better "technology". It just happens. It's a guaranteed form of magic. Sigh.  (--Maybe that is why I don't "get" Lord of the Rings. I can't get myself to believe in magic.)

I myself had seen Hubbert curves earlier in life but dismissed them as Chicken Little doomerism. It was only when I accidentally ran across a Matthew Simmons lecture that I realized this guy knows his tech and is not kidding. Went through the usual psych coping mechanisms: denial, anger, bargaining. Still in the bargaining stage and grudgingly sinking into acceptance.

Technology will get us out of the Quicksand!
If that doesn't work, The Market will throw us a Life Line.
It always ends happily. 10,000 movies can't be wrong.

I have a 5-year-old daughter, and I got Peak Oil immediately. I supposed in my case, the protective-parent mindset pushed me in the direction of "getting it". As far as I am concerned, better to face the doom, learn all I can, and use the information to help my daughter.

Of course, I was exposed to ideas of Peak Oil over a decade ago, when I worked for the Energy Analysis Program at LBNL. I didn't understand the full consequences then (I just thought in terms of rising gas prices and how they would effect me). So perhaps my situation is somewhat unique.

-best

As a Boomer, my experience has mostly been one of Onward and Upward as well.  I bought into the consumer fairy tale. It was a sobering day for me when I realized that was the 'wrong' answer.  It took me a while to come around to that less-is-more way of thinking.

That said, I am happier now than I have been in a long time.  Go figure.

Here's an exercise I did a few years ago when I was trying to understand why my mother wasn't interested in PO.
I copied the ASPO graph from the front of their newsletter pasted it into a Word document, and then added three rectangles underneath it. One for my mothers life 1926 - 2010, one for myself 1965 - 2040, and one for my first son 1999 - 2080. I aligned then to the graph and there it is; mum has only ever known growth, I'll know both, and My son probably wont remember growth an only know depletion. I now cut Mum a lot more slack.
what do you know.  I was born in 65, and my son was born in 99.

I am shooting for 1965-2050.

My second wife, Trisha, and I are not together anymore, but she got it faster than most.  She carries on her live making is as fun as she can, though she has a ton of medical issues and if the times get really really bad, she will be one of the first to get tougher and stand her ground, but how long that is I have no clue.  She and I are still friends and it was the one thing that formed my opinions when we were still together about survivablity and all that.  

I am one who has been gathering the knowledge to be dropped anywhere in the USA and be able to survive at least a little while.  With just the clothes on my back.  Trisha could not due to medical issues.  

Teach your kids fun projects.  Growing and storing foods found in your yard and surrounding countryside and grown by you.  Teach them how to make fire without matches, All the basic old school boy scout things.  Teach them to repect the earth and the people that live on it, even if they don't always agree with their dieties or politics.  Teach them how to cook new foods and how to eat new foods.  Get out of your box and into the world around them.

I thank GOD that my dad taught me to love cooking, and to try foods even if I had not a clue waht were in them.  I am living with my parents dad 70, mom 76, and teaching them things I learned out there in the wilds of the world.

I have no childern of my own, neither does my brother, we are the last of my dad's line,  His older brother had 2 boys as well and they have 4 kids between them. A zero sum gain on my uncle's side and a negative gain on my dad's side.

Keep talking to your wife and keep having fun, its better to laugh than to cry, though crying is okay, but remember to get back to being positive, even if you feel the world is comeing down around your ears.  It's your Character that matters to your kids, and your wife and to others.

My parents kicked the bucket in their early 60s, working-class desperation and poverty will do that to you. Malnutrition as a kid taught me an open mind towards "new foods" as in, anything edible.

Boomers like you told me all about the extensive set of reasons I am only good for sweeping floors etc while H1B's and affirmative-action babies get the training and jobs. And it's all OK with you, because all the Righteous are going to Heaven right? Just like all those little Lebanese babies killed with American bombs, it's all OK cos Gawd sez so. Oh wait, the Lebanese kids didn't get a chance to get Baptized or hear Pat Robertson on the radio or whatever it takes, and they were in the way of Gawd-fearing American imperialism, too bad, they go to hell.

I don't listen to those types of folks that in my mind I class as false prophets.  

Yeah I know they are main stream and we have to listen to them say stupid things, and have stupid ideas and they taint the rest of us Christians.  But I am not one of thier ilk.

 And Though I could never get a true answer If I am a boomer or not.  I would have never told you :::

<<<Boomers like you told me all about the extensive set of reasons I am only good for sweeping floors etc while H1B's and affirmative-action babies get the training and jobs.>>>

You are good for what you are good at, and its up to you to get there. And along the way If I can help you get to where you are going just ask, I will offer you any help I can.

Everyone is created Equal, no one should be left behind.

I guess in the end , I will be out there helping anyone I can till I can't help anyone else.   Just ask former neighbors of mine, >  608 Kennan Rd. Huntsville Alabama, ask them about Charles or some knew as Bear,  ask them they can be my witnesses, black or white I treated them all as fellow humans..

Judge me for what I have done, not for what the guy on TV does.

My mother, 62, is open minded but generally resistant to dire scenarios. She says she has seen this many times before -- Chicken Littles -- like her ex-husband who stocked a "panic room" in the late 70s and his friend who scared us kids with his EOTWAWKI scenarios. ("Do YOU think YOU could kill a squirrel with a bow and arrow and EAT it?  If you don't you'll DIE!")

That said, when I explained peak oil to her, she took it very seriously and when we got to EROEI, her eyes got big. I think she gets it but doesn't see what she can do at this point in her life (no assets, not a lot of choices but to decide which kid to move in with), so her response is philosophical.

Tate423:  where are you in college?  Just wondering.  Please respond privately if you wish (go to my info area).
It's Ok.  I'm going to the University of MO @ St. Louis.  Known around here as UMSL and I'm finishing my finance degree with a minor in Economics.  Hopefully I can find an employer to pay for my MBA at Washington University in another couple years.  I'm a sponge when it comes to all the information I can get my hands on.
I take it you're in OR by your name or do you simply want to be there?  I plan to relocate the the Pacific NW or perhaps Vancouver BC.  If not there I hear St Paul is nice.
I'm a fifth-generation Portlander, live in SW suburbs, anthropologist on faculty at Linfield College.  LoveOregon is from my name (Tom Love) and this place, though I somewhat regret the moniker now since, in the words of beloved 70s governor Tom McCall, while we Oregonians really do want you to visit...just don't move here!  It's a rather gentle but deep-seated xenophobic, slam-the-gate-behind-you sentiment around these parts, which will be severely strained in coming powerdown as refugees of various sorts move to the PNW.
Sounds like my kind of place...my first pick would probably be Vancouver BC.  Portland is very pedestrian/bike friendly from what I read, along with the light rail network.
The ways od Madison Ave and Wall Street are 2/3 of the non-negotiable American Way of Life. The final 1/3 is some vague thing like civil liberties, rule of law, the right to choose to be homeless, the right to deny health care to the poor, etc.
I've come to the firm belief it's marketing's fault [err ... I mean brilliance].  They are THAT good at what they do.  They use what we've learned from modern Psychology and used it to push the right buttons (hmmm...just like a robot).

Tate,

You of course understand you are bucking up against one of the foundational pillars of our Western culture? ... Free Will.

It is built into our Judaeo-Christian view of the world that all human beings are "intelligent" and have powers of "rational" choice.

To suggest that we might be robots --programmable, emotion machines-- why that is heresy.

Do you renounce?

No? Obviously you have learned quite a bit more in college than the average robot, err ... I mean college graduate, comes to understand. This might make you unhappy in future life. Remember the first commandment from the Garden of Eden: "And from the Tree of Knowledge thou shall not eat lest ye know you are naked."


What does it mean to be half "robot", to be programmed by MSM?

What I find interesting is my new glasses I wear in my final year.  I discovered PO shortly before my Spring semester ended.  It hit me like 22 tons of bricks and I was like Holy Shiite!

I had a money/banking econ theory class and I started asking questions and my econ professor rebuffed my attempts at understanding the concept.  He denied it at first and then admitted he saw a lot of benefits if oil hits $100 a barrel.  Now I couldn't ask the right questions at the time b/c I still didnt know enough to stand my ground.  So listened to my grair haired proff and proceeded to debunk everything he said.  I ran out of time, but I will probably be in another one of his classes next semester.

Things have changed.  I didnt take any summer courses and instead took a reality course and started learning everything I possibily could about PO, GW, and the dire financial position we've dug ourselves into.  I find it very hard now to discuss some issues without interjecting my firm objections to our current way of life.  

Last night I got into an "discussion" w/ my Biz writing instuctor over persuasive messages in advertising and of course I put it out there that we are easily influenced and it's pretty clear to see we will do whatever is necessary to consume!  Which included absorbing as much debt as possible to keep buying junk.  She didn't like that answer, but so what.  I can back up my position with facts and if you're too warped to step back and think for yourself I can help you little.

I've always been different, though I'm sure many feel the same.  People have told me that from very early and it's just who I am.  I'm proud to be different and frequently get into "discussions" over the simple concept of a "normal person" (i believe none exists).

Don't knock your Econ or Writing teachers. They mean well. It's just that they were "programmed" to be who they are. They can't help it.

As for "persuasive" writing, let me give you a tip: it's all about understanding "reading" --no, not you understanding how to read but rather you understanding how other people read. You need to be able to pretend you are them and need to see how they decode your words without having first known what you intended.

Agreed.  All I got out of last night's class was be congnizant of your audience as you attempt to persuade them.  I also liked the AIDA model (attention, interest, desire, action).  Kind of gives you a framework to work within.
This has been a very interesting thread.  My impressions have been that age, family situations etc doesn't correlate that much on how an individual comprehends and accepts or not information related to things like PO.  But, there are some similarities in the reaction or actions people take.  For example, most my friends with young children simply do not have much spare time to think about the issue, or get involved in some local community responses - when they are involved it tends to be related to schooling.