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393 comments on DrumBeat: September 13, 2006

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roel on September 13, 2006 - 8:55am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Apart from the weirdness, or confusing implications, of using technology to get more reserves, this fine CEO is absolutely right, of course. There may well be 10 trillion barrels left. But that's not the point. It's the cost of producing it. And not the dollar cost.

As Jay Hanson has pointed out ad nauseum, the game stops when an energy source becomes an energy sink, when it takes more than one barrel of oil (or some energy equivalent) to produce one barrel. Something the oil sands are toying with, to say the least, in their natural gas use.

The energy sink concept will probably remain hidden as long as dollars are used, instead of BTU's, or even calories, to calculate the cost of a barrel of oil; it allows us to slip from source to sink without noticing it. Oil prices will rise so much that more and more oil looks economically recoverable. Again, not the point: what counts ultimately is whether it's "energetically" recoverable.

Once it's clear that overall resources are shrinking, this should become much more obvious (one may hope). It then gets pretty crazy pretty fast to lose lots of energy in the process of turning natural gas into petrol (the same applies to virtually all conversions).

Until then, and who knows how long after, the unlimited potential of both the rise in prices (dollars), and the ability to add more money to the system, will continue to conceal the obvious,

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mencial on September 13, 2006 - 10:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Nah. I am sure that someone, somewhere, will pay to get two perfectly usable units of energy (say, electricity) converted to one unit of gas just so they can keep driving their SUV.

¿What if it does not make sense? I mean, the SUV does not make sense anyway. It is their money, and if they want to burn it that way, it is their God Given Right (tm). You will have to pry it from the cold fingers of their dead bodies.

Although it is usually someone else who ends up dead.

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PeakOil Tarzan on September 13, 2006 - 11:15am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
There may well be 10 trillion barrels left. But that's not the point. It's the cost of producing it. And not the dollar cost.

Good point.  The earth's atmosphere is 78% N, but try fertilizing your tomatoes with it.

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toilforoil on September 13, 2006 - 11:46am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I appreciate your underlying point, but in reality you can fertilize your tomatoes with atmospheric nitrogen.  Rotational planting or interplanting with nitrogen fixing plants will do the trick.  You can be sure that we'll be making a great deal more use of atmospheric nitrogen, than we ever will of the third and fourth billion barrel of oil down there, somewhere.  

And then there is the slightly more random trick of loading the atmosphere with greenhouse gases to stimulate more violent weather, bringing on lightning and rain storms.  My garden got a great fix of nitrogen this way last week.  Hmmm...maybe I should send a letter of thanks to the coal lobby.  On the other hand there was that damage to my roof...I wonder if I can sue for damages?  It's all so confusing.

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PeakOil Tarzan on September 13, 2006 - 12:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I appreciate your underlying point, but in reality you can fertilize your tomatoes with atmospheric nitrogen.

Sure, I know that.  But it happens on The Great Spirit's terms.  You don't pour it out of a bottle.

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Everett on September 13, 2006 - 2:50pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Actually, you can pour some great spirits out of a bottle ;-)
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elwoodelmore on September 13, 2006 - 7:10pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
your tomatoes get fertilized with it every time it rains
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Prodigal Son on September 13, 2006 - 11:36am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Until then, and who knows how long after, the unlimited potential of both the rise in prices (dollars), and the ability to add more money to the system, will continue to conceal the obvious.

So, the economic system would ensure either an inflationary Big Rip or a Recessionary Big Crunch - either way Malthus wins.

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ET on September 13, 2006 - 11:40am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
We also have 'reserves' of zillions of joules of solar energy. The key word is 'available.'
(maybe not zillions but I'm too lazy to do the math right now)
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elwoodelmore on September 13, 2006 - 7:08pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
and as long as military costs are not included in the cost of oil to the consumer
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393 comments on DrumBeat: September 13, 2006

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