The Oil Drum

47 comments on A Simpler Way to Calculate Global Oil Reserves?

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Dave Cohen on September 13, 2006 - 1:04pm

Re: At a current global consumption rate of 85 mbpd we get another 33 years of time to get things sorted out in terms of alternate energy sources and so on (though increasing demand would pull that number back to 20-25 years)

Production versus reserves, again, I'm afraid. The global R/P ratio may be about 33 years but there will be reserves growth as there always is. This is the main Cornucopian argument. In terms of peak production, we have anywhere from 0 to 9 years left according to what I can figure out from research. Most likely, somewhere in the middle (3 to 6 years). I'm afraid to say that's not much time.

Reserves from shale oil, the tar sands and the Orinoco heavy oil & tar from Venezuela are usually what's cited by those who are Pollyannish regarding the future. None of these sources will make a significant contribution by 2015 and likely beyond. This is a large part of the problem with reserves accounting. It is also a problem for all of us.

best --

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memmel on September 13, 2006 - 1:10pm

Dang you beat me :)

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Bigelow on September 13, 2006 - 1:51pm

In terms of peak production, we have anywhere from 0 to 9 years left according to what I can figure out from research. Most likely, somewhere in the middle (3 to 6 years).

Thankyou for that. It is easy to loose sight of the important sometimes. A billion barrels here, a billion there

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HongKong Trader on September 13, 2006 - 9:18pm

I seem to remember that Hubbert showed that if he DOUBLED his estimates of the URR he only pushed peak oil out by 8 years. Basically it all gets consumed very rapidly in the middle.