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$53 oil, ur pulling my chain, lol, it ain't going there. A $15 spread implies a low of $48-, that is seriously silly and highly unlikely.
Every Thursday, Bloomberg conducts a poll of about 40 to 50 oil analysts, with the question will oil rise, fall, or stay the same. I tracked it fairly closely for about 4 months one time. I found that the majority was right about 33% of the time. In other words, you may as well tack the options to the wall and have a monkey throw a dart at them over its shoulder.
I picked $53 - $73. While I think there is a very good likelihood that it will break past either or both in the next two months, I think it is about 80% likely that it ends up or averages in this range.
For more specific guesswork, I would say the price will say where it is or even drop in the next few weeks, then at some point climb back up to previous highs. Might take more than two months though.
I've marked in red the 12 times since the beginning of 2004 that oil has moved in either direction by $10 or more within 2 months. Some of these moves occured in as little as a month.
The next question is, how many times has it traded in a $20 band for 2 full months?
I'll be the 9th one to pick the $53 option, with the caveat that like SAT I am not particularly fond of the phrasing. I think that the chances of hitting either extreme (combined) are double that of trading in this $20 range. I think the distribution should be 33%-33%-33% instead of the current 10%-60%-30%.
I wanted to do more than "up" or "down" from today. That's not very interesting. So, I had to pick a time horizon and some sort of constraint.
If you wanted a 33-33-33 distribution, the middle range would have had to have been smaller, not larger, right?
so, perhaps a better way would be, "which is the next price point we hit," or something like that?
Yeah, like maybe 5 price ranges instead of 3.
I'd choose between $0 and $infinity. I'd be guaranteed a gloat for being correct. Unless of course they have to start paying to have it hauled away. So I guess I'd have to make it $-infinity to $+infinity for a 100% guarantee.
To me this poll has two different things: there's the "range" and the "which one first." It would seem better to separate the two, have one that asks about ranges, but still ask which specific amount is likely to be reached first. Then there's a more nitpicky thing about "remaining in $## - $## range"...is it nullified if it steps out of that range just once? Or is it valid if it stays in that range 95% of the time?