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63 comments on Oil Price Poll 3

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Oil CEO on September 16, 2006 - 8:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I would argue that the most unlikely scenario from a basic logic viewpoint using the actual history of price swings the past 3 years is the range of $53-$73. For two whole months it is going to stay in that band? Yet with 20 people voting so far, 71% have picked it.

Every Thursday, Bloomberg conducts a poll of about 40 to 50 oil analysts, with the question will oil rise, fall, or stay the same. I tracked it fairly closely for about 4 months one time. I found that the majority was right about 33% of the time. In other words, you may as well tack the options to the wall and have a monkey throw a dart at them over its shoulder.

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Jack on September 17, 2006 - 1:10am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
As your poll of experts example shows, predicting oil prices, even over a short period of time, is very hard.

I picked $53 - $73. While I think there is a very good likelihood that it will break past either or both in the next two months, I think it is about 80% likely that it ends up or averages in this range.

For more specific guesswork, I would say the price will say where it is or even drop in the next few weeks, then at some point climb back up to previous highs. Might take more than two months though.

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