The Oil Drum

63 comments on Oil Price Poll 3

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Prof. Goose on September 17, 2006 - 12:48am

Well, I welcome input on the phrasing of the options...

I wanted to do more than "up" or "down" from today. That's not very interesting. So, I had to pick a time horizon and some sort of constraint.

If you wanted a 33-33-33 distribution, the middle range would have had to have been smaller, not larger, right?

so, perhaps a better way would be, "which is the next price point we hit," or something like that?

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Oil CEO on September 17, 2006 - 12:56am

Don't get me wrong, I like the poll. Everybody is going to want to do it their way. You're the one that gets to choose. The distribution is changing as we speak. (And I'm certainly not above trying to influence it). $73 has made quite a move in the last hour or two ;)

Yeah, like maybe 5 price ranges instead of 3.

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Substrate on September 17, 2006 - 10:22am

"Yeah, like maybe 5 price ranges instead of 3."

I'd choose between $0 and $infinity. I'd be guaranteed a gloat for being correct. Unless of course they have to start paying to have it hauled away. So I guess I'd have to make it $-infinity to $+infinity for a 100% guarantee.

To me this poll has two different things: there's the "range" and the "which one first." It would seem better to separate the two, have one that asks about ranges, but still ask which specific amount is likely to be reached first. Then there's a more nitpicky thing about "remaining in $## - $## range"...is it nullified if it steps out of that range just once? Or is it valid if it stays in that range 95% of the time?