The Oil Drum

You mean "overestimated" too. It's not "weirdness," or "wierdness" is you prefer, it 's stupidity.

Thank you for the kind words, but it is just what it says, a first rough draft, put together with several contributing ideas, to get us started.  Thus, for those who beat up the grammar, my apologies, but there is a lot of cut and paste in there, as we built up all the things we want to start covering.  This is to be a working document, not for publication or distribution in this form.
The grammar can be easily corrected, I put the rough here because I consider you guys "insiders", and online friends, given the volume of bad writing I have been forgiven for here! :-)

There is a companion Yahoo Group just set up, that has as it's first post the document in question
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/Voluntary_Energy_Knowledge_Security/

usable, but still under construction/just began.  

Your question is the one that is most pressing:  "It's one thing to say people should prepare. But how do you want them to do that? What practical measures do you recommend?"

First, a sacrilegious premise:  I have disavowed further interest about when Peak is going to occur, whether it has already occurred, or if it is even noticeable when it occurs (and it will, that is a geological/scientific fact if we are talking narrowly about what are by definition nonrenewable fuel sources)  I disavow the usefulness of exactly how "Peak" per se is defined, as I have found no valid and consistent definition useful for planning in almost 4 years of contact with the issue named "Peak Oil".

I disavow the belief that anyone (with the possible exception of M. King Hubbert himself! :-) has been able to use the so called Hubbert Curve with enough reliability to act as a planning tool in any way, and if they have, it has not been accepted by enough people to make it influential in anyway.  Thus, what it may or not have in predictive power is in enough debate so that it is destroyed by it's lack of credibility with experts and laymen alike, whether deserved or undeserved.  This makes it useless as a tool of planning, or of communication.

The Hubbert Curve however is no less reliable than the methods used by all others in the oil and planning industry.  The statistics from the EIA, IEA, USGS,  CERA, the NPC and other advisory and informational groups are equally if not more muddled than other more controversial, less accepted methods of predicting.

Essential, all guessing about future oil supply, consumption, and possible depletion and so called peak regardless of source is to be regarded for planning purposes as exactly that:  Guessing, and of no use in planning purposes.
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How to proceed, briefly, from the above assumptions, in a practical way:

The practical steps are based on models from other completely unpredictable scenarios, and one in particular:  The markets.  Given that despite decades of trying to guess the direction of financial markets no usable "system" has yet proved itself, but that the markets and how to respond to them must be considered minimally "rational", how does an investor act in market decisions:

He/she assumes that any scenario is "possible", but that some are "probable" and then plans in descending order the steps to take to plan for these scenarios.  This is an effort that has not been made in any real systemic way in regards to energy, in which we are all, whether we like it or not, investors.

So, the practical steps:

1.  Rational Education.  The energy consumer/investor must be informed.  There is no system.  There is loose flowing information that will only be correct by coincidence.  You must also be made aware of the options available.  There are many more energy options in the marketplace than most people know.  It should be your goal to know what is available, and whether it works FOR YOU.  Each situation is different.  You energy plan should be as tailor made to you and or you organization as it's  financial investment portfolio is. There are many options, and many mixes of options.

2.  There are ways to plan.  Just as with your investments, you can diversify.  (your business runs on essentially one fuel.  Would you own just one stock?
   

You can conserve.  (Are you so willing to waste fuel?  Would you be so willing to waste money?  You can bring in newer technology.  Would you turn down new methods in business if they were shown to overcome most or all of the problems of your old methods?   And you can plan strategically.  Would you not keep some money in reserve, for opportunities, or in case of emergencies?  Should you not have a strategic plan and a strategic source for spare energy?

3.  Action steps.  When you take action, you should get credit for it.  There are others who will be taking action on this issue.  And you should have people and sources to communicate with.  The actions taken to diversify, modernize and strategically strengthen America's energy situation is not only a valuable service to yourself and your organization, but puts you and your firm in the forefront of  of strengthening your nation and enhancing your strategic responsibility to the nation and the world.
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The above is pretty much the "pitch", and I don't mind calling it that.  it is the case that needs to be made demonstrating that reduction of energy waste, and enhancing of diversity, decentralization, and modernization of American energy is not a "bad" thing that has to be done to dodge some "guess" that catastrophic things are going to happen.  It is part of a program to assure continued operations, and be more competitive in the local region, the nation and the world.  That's all.  This plan should be undertaken even if any possibility of "peak oil" or depletion is 50 years away.

The step to be taken at this moment by the
 Clear Morning Voluntary Energy Knowledge and Security Initiative

1.  Rationalize and prepare the above messages for distribution.  Create a core philosophy around the effort to send a streamlined, easily understood version of this message.  
   
2.  Structure of organization as a not for profit informational and civic group.  Full staffing and contact with talent, advisors, and other concerned parties.
   
3.  Branding.  The Easy Identification of documents, paperwork and web site through branding, images, logos, etc.
   
4.  Building support by exposing the message to individuals, groups, firms, organizations, and energy related firms and industries of priority importance.  Exposing the firms able to provide or already attempting to provide needed advances and technology to possible customers as they are brought into contact with the group.
   
5.  Methods of succession, organization and structure to assure the ongoing and expanding mission of the group.  Essentially, making the group permanent, refining and improving it's message, and outreach.

Lastly, resources.  Like any group of this type, the idea and the structure will have to be done on the cheap, if not the free!  I have left resources to one side, essentially because at this time there are virtually none!   But, at some point, there could be, so it goes without saying that control, auditing, and correct distribution of resources must be planned by whatever way legally appropriate to the corporate form (nonprofit, foundation, etc.) that is taken.

Exact technical details are not given as you may notice, because this to me has been one of the central holdups on energy education, security, diversity, and modernization.  People get married to solar, or wind, or methane recapture from landfills, and advise everyone to adopt the new silver bullet.
The renewable fans often see fossil fuels as the evil enemy.  Fossil fuel firms see renewable as an annoyance, and throw up roadblocks to distributed generation.  NO ONE TECHNOLOGY will do the job.  

Every alternative will be looked at, the ones that are already out there first  (ground coupled heat pumps, solar water heating, LPG as CHP power in certain areas and seasons, natural gas where it can best be used as distributed power for CHP.  The list is long and complex.  Some work in one place, but market conditions prevent them in other places.  The technical alternatives are much like the financial markets.  A new instrument or mix of instruments is the only way forward.  Diversity, strategic planning, seasonal flexibility, it all matters and will contribute.  

(Sections extracted from other documents, forgive if grammar is not perfect, cut and paste warning!)

The most important point is to break out of this one size fits all either/or thinking.

"Peak will happen, or soon, or there's no point in being more efficient"??  That's the kind of logic you hear from grown ups.
"Nuclear has to work or we're screwed"  ???
"If we drop 5, or 7 or 10 percent on crude oil in the summer, we're screwed, the economy will collapse." ??

THE FIRST GOAL:  Education, rationalization, and distribution.  
THE SECOND GOAL:  Structure, improved and more complete message, hone the information
THE THIRD GOAL:  LIKE A TREE, SET DOWN ROOTS AND GROW, PERMANENT, PROFESSIONAL GROWTH

(O.K., FOLKS, now you can laugh, or take it for what it's worth, you are getting to see the building stage before the pretty stuff goes on!  We may run out of material and you never hear of it again,  but on the other hand, who knows?

Somehow we have got to get this message back up on the tracks, though, and move forward, do something, and have some fun with this....

Everybody should tilt at a few windmills before they die!  :-)

Roger Conner  known to you as ThatsItImout