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Personally, a gas tax refunded via a cut in payroll taxes would be a great deal for me. I don't drive much, since I live walking distance from my office.
But if everyone does what I'm doing, the government will be losing money, unless the gas tax increases or the rebate decreases.
Interesting, there are two potential stimuli to the economy: revenue would decline, increasing the deficit, and so would the transfer to oil states: the "oil tax" effect.
In theory you'd need to reduce the credit faster than revenues declined, to keep the economy on an even keel.
There are enormous constituencies for low gas prices, and very few for raising gas prices. Any politician who voted to raise the prices of gas would be voted out post haste.
I don't believe that our present Congress would pass such a bill, and I'm positive Bush would never sign it into law. In addition, I find it hard to believe that ANY future Congress would vote to raise these taxes. And what future president would sign it into law?
Better to let progressive shortages do the price lifting for us. Even if the price is coming down now, nothing short of a major recession will protect prices from going up next year. And the year afterwards, etc.