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Someone should create a virtual world which lives up to the cornucopian dream--unlimited energy and other resources--and it lasts forever (Well, maybe only until the power goes out in the real world).
Peak Oil Game
If we had that, we'd have a great model depending on the various iterations possible. Instead of a game it could be real world and disturbing to many people. Can you imagine sugar coating it though, and feeding it to the masses as they look in disbelief?
These are the data at the moment, no need to invent a game.
Better to invent a doomsters game because the real world is currently a cornucopians wet dream.
Just the data, things may change for the worse, or not.
If we really care about us, we should at least see what is acutally there at the moment before worrying about the future.
And of course, there is the question of whether or not the measures of material well being we can make are indicative of people's lives.
And then there is the most important issue, which is whether or not material well being is even what we should be concerned with (beyond basic lving standards).
Things are getting better for most people, and the poor are seeing the greatest improvements in material wellbeing.
This is not to say that we are "happier" or "more fulfilled" or that our lives are more "meaningful", but the people of the world are better provided for than ever before.
I never forget that the happiest people on Earth are recorded to be the Nigerians, and Nigeria really is a poverty and violence ridden country, but I was talking about "material wellbeing". Also intersting to note that "happiness" seems more correlated to relative than absolute income, but that's not the point I was making.
Take a look - the third world is booming - see it and celebrate it.
We can go through them one by one.
I am willing.
You list all the reports, then we will agree a subset of them that are relevant, then have a look at them.
This will take months, but I am willing.
I look forward to your list of reports.
You're the one making the claims. You should be the one doing the proving and providing your source material from which you've drawn your conclusions.
Still, if you really are interested you might want to check out some of the very good papers at the UN site (we are in the midst of their effort to halve poverty by 2015.
Here's one I found particularly interesting -
http://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2006/wp20_2006.pdf
In fact it is by Simms and nef - no more reliable than Exxon.
The UN publishes (and vouches) hundreds of papers every year that deal with this, but that is not one of them.
Looks like you are more interesting in negating something that you think might go against your preconceived notions. Did you even look at the paper? I suggested it because of the discussion in it, some of which might actually support your position.
Please, if you want to have a discussion about this, at least do me the favor of participating in a conversation, not simply making your pronouncements.
Wow, It might , maybe just a little look like some of the Upper income places in America and a few other European like states of the world. But have you looked at the other 5 billion or so people.
I can have fun with thought puzzles and my odd fiction all day, but when I stop, I remember the real world outside my door. The Only thing above that you got right was I AM TALLER than my parents, oh and I have gone to more schools, but my life experience, The best part of my education is lacking a lot of the things I have to ask them about and don't have time to learn it all.
I keep seeing the guys living under the Overpasses in Huntsville Alabama, Where I-565 goes through town. I see Shanty towns In cities, villages, wide spots in the roads all over the world.
I haven't gotten the impression that you have travelled much or lived in the third world. China and India have been growing close to 10% a year, pulling tens if not hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.
Above the etc etc etc part was where my post was mostly centered at.
But no I have not lived in the Third world. I know people from there. Some may be getting better which I don't doubt.
The world is a big place and I don't think "nearly everyone" can be that true. We have Africa torn by wars, Genocides, Russia collapsing from the inside out, I forget the news article It was posted here or while I was reading google, that talked about the next ten to 20 years of where Russia would be. AIDS is in Africa, China, Russia in far greater numbers than most people realize.
So while we are making improvements one place we are making large back slides other places.
My thoughts are that the improvements aren't going to be able to counter balance the down turns.
I am not seeing as rosy a picture as he was painting.
I would by some, be classed as a doomer, But I like a practicalist better.
'poverty' is internationally defined as less than $1 per day of income.
The average rural wage in China is about $450 per annum. The average urban wage is about $1800 pa, but of course Shenzen, Shanghai and that pull the averages up enormously.
India has a GDP per head of about 1/3rd of China.
We still live on a very poor planet.
My comment said that economic growth in China and India are pulling tens, if not hundreds, of millions of people out of poverty.
If you use the $1 per day definition, I am sure my comment is accurate.
You would be hard pressed to demonstrate that the overall poverty rate has improved. Indeed, if you measure by the difference between the poor and the wealthy, that gap continues to get wider.
However, if one is a poor Chinese farmer living on less than a dollar a day who can increase their earnings to $2 a day, would you really be all that bothered that the middle class are doing even better.
If the percentage of people and/or the absolute number living in poverty has improved, that alone is good.
My point was that growth in East Asian countries has reduiced poverty. I don't dispute that some other regions have not made similar progress.
Asian countries with rapid growth rates in the 1980s and 1990s such as Indonesia and Thailand succeeded in reducing the number of people in poverty enormously. Korea was a poor country in the 1960s, behind the Philippines, but put down years of 10% growth. China, India are now Vietnam doing the same.
You are sitting in Florida outsourcing US jobs, if I recall correctly. You can try arguing with me based on facts, but questioning my background, when you know nothing about it is a weak approach.
Try naming one country that has grown at 10% over any significant period - say five years - and hasn't reduced its poverty rate.
China, India. That would be about it, because 10% growth rates aren't real common. Don't believe me? Go check it out, neither country has made significant inroads against poverty.
What you don't know is that I, too, have lived overseas and travelled fairly extensively. And I've see things quite differently than you have.
As for my job, yeah, you're right that I work for an outsourcing company. Funny how you jumped to the conclusion that we "outsource American jobs." To me this demonstrates a couple things, you're prone to jumping to conclusions based on pre-conceived notions and two you don't speak like someone with any significant expat experience.
Did some countries reduce their poverty rates over the past few decades, damn right. Did this change the poverty rate across the globe? Why don't you go check this out instead of assumming that because some people get out of poverty that everything is rosy.
You started this by wrongly jumping to the conclusion that I hadn't travelled. You also haven't addressed my points that Korea, Thailand and Indonesia have had rapid, near 10% growth for extended period, which drastically reduced poverty.
Economic growth in China has indisputably lifted large numbers of people out of povery, although there have been downsides as well. Indian growth is more recent, but you and your outsourcing brethren can take credit for boosting the Indian middle class.
When you said recently you worked for the largest outsourcing company in the US. It is hardly "jumping to conclusions" that you are outsourcing US jobs. You haven't tried to deny it, so apparently the obvious conclusion was also accurate.
That is the crux of the Peak Oil situation. Without an ever increasing energy input (and especially with an increasing population), continued improvements in the areas you describe are not possible.
Someone should create a virtual world which lives up to the cornucopian dream--unlimited energy and other resources--and it lasts forever (Well, maybe only until the power goes out in the real world)."
Sim City, old skool. At the beginning of the game you issue bonds at a negative rate, keeps money pouring in and then you build to your heart's content. :)