The Oil Drum

130 comments on DrumBeat: October 20, 2006

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Leanan on October 20, 2006 - 9:10am

I used to think that environmental rules would be thrown out the window as soon as the energy crisis really started to bite. Example: Bush suspending EPA rules on gasoline after Katrina.

But stories like the ones about the protesters in Ireland and South America make me wonder. The people who are paying the price for environmental destruction are often not the ones benefitting from the resources extracted. Maybe the locals will end up helping avert the Tragedy of the Commons.

Though anything that can be extracted by an individual or small group, such as firewood from a forest, is probably doomed.

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joule on October 20, 2006 - 9:40am

Generally, in the US environmental regulations aren't blatently thrown out the window. Rather, when powerful economic/political interests are unhappy with certain environmental initiatives, their lobbyists get to work in Washington, and if successful, proposed regulations are re-written, diluted, delayed, and shot through with exceptions favorable to certain groups. This happened all across the board when Reagen took over from Carter, and I see it all the time on the local level.

While local protests can make a lot of noise, cause a lot of bad publicity, and delay things, in the long run the fundamental principle that 'money talks' usually wins out.

The promulgation and enforcement of environmental regulations on a national scale is a very complex, tedious, and highly political process. The fact the much of the oil shale is on federal lands does not give the locals much clout.

Based on over 30 years in the environmental consulting field, I can say with great confidence that if we start having serious trouble meeting US consumer's demand for fuel, those oil shale projects are going to be completed come hell or high water.

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roel on October 20, 2006 - 9:48am

Leanan,

Wouldn't you think the protests might evaporate when it threatens to be permanently dark out, and people get cold and hungry and thirsty?

Protests may last only as long as at least some of the basic needs are still provided for. It's hard to imagine people waving banners on a freezing empty stomach. They'd be much more likely to go scrambling for food and water. And anything that burns to keep them lit and warm.

In that sense the protests can be regarded mainly as a luxury. In a well fed human, reason may be the driver, but in a hungry person, the reptilian prevails.

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PhilRelig on October 20, 2006 - 10:43am

I think whether Leanan is correct or not depends to a considerable extent on how ruthlessly authoritarian governments become in coming decades.

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optimist on October 20, 2006 - 11:25am

I always tend to question the assumption that we will cut down forests and such when PO hits. I suspect that there will be localized damage, but not widespread and massive like some imagine. Why? Three reasons really:

-Most people don't have fireplaces these days. Firewood doesn't do you any good if you don't have a place to burn it. Sure, you can always do so outside, but do you want to be the one huddling around a campfire in a New York winter?

-Cities don't have forests (save a few parks and random trees) and that is where most people live. The vast majority of our population is clustered in a few urban centers.

-To get firewood in the city you have to either have it brought to you, or go get it yourself. There might be a few people bringing firewood into sell, but by the time this becomes necessary I suspect that fuel will be lacking as well, so whoever the merchant was would have to find an alternative means (horse and buggy). Otherwise, the city folk would have to go get it themselves. Without gas, they'd have to walk. How far is it to the nearest forest from most of our cities? What are the odds a group of tired, hungry, and cold people could go back and forth enough to cause damage? Or even get there at all, if they were leaving from, say New York City.