The Oil Drum

11 comments on The Round-Up: October 20th 2006

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roel on October 20, 2006 - 11:02am

10.4% is not excessive. Just so you know. Oil imports increase stood at 10.5% in recent numbers. So economic growth marches in step with oil use. The growth in coal in China is also a factor.

China credits central controls as growth slows to 10.4% from 11.3%
China's annual growth slowed a little in the third quarter to 10.4 %, but the world's fourth-largest economy is still firmly on course to log a fourth consecutive year of double-digit expansion.
The slowdown, from 11.3% in the second quarter, followed a concerted campaign by Beijing to prevent a credit-fuelled investment boom from turning into a bust that could saddle the nation's banks with fresh bad loans.
"Excessive economic growth has been basically brought under control. This data shows that the tightening policies adopted by the central government have been timely and effective," Li Xiaochao, chief spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, told a news conference yesterday.
But the third-quarter's annual growth rate was still the second strongest since the fourth quarter of 2003 and Mr. Li said the economy was likely to keep up the momentum in the fourth quarter.
Gross domestic product in the first nine months grew 10.7% from a year earlier, faster than any other major economy.
JPMorgan responded by raising its forecast for 2006 GDP growth to 10.6% from 10.0% and for 2007 to 9.5% from 9.0%.

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Wolfric on October 20, 2006 - 6:09pm

Wow, 10 % is like doubling the economy every 7 years!

It just went from freakingly fast to a weebit less faster.

It sure tell how the increase in oil consumption will fare in the following month.

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roel on October 20, 2006 - 6:23pm

I saw several reports through the summer that China's oil demand had decreased, and found that hard to believe.

Not long ago it turned out there was a 10.5% increase. They are also filling their (newly built) reservoirs at the moment, and will do so as fast as they can with the low prices.

Also not long ago, the government said they were aiming to decrease the growth rate to 7-8%. Didn't quite succeed. Providing they were ever serious.

And yes, you're right, they're looking at a doubling in about 6.5 years at this rate. While, what was it, 30%(?!) of the rivers are already too toxic to even stand in, let alone drink the water. I can only see China heading for a huge implosion. Economic growth as a Pandora's box.