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125 comments on People in Glass Houses

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Nate Hagens on November 4, 2006 - 12:58pm

If I have a product that I can make for cheaper than the competitor, why would I need mandates, subsidies, and an extortion tax on my competitors in order to compete?

You wouldnt, unless you a) needed someone to pay for the infrastructure to sell your product or b) you realized your product wasnt't too great at present, but smart persuasive people told you to expect your product to dramatically improve in the near future (cellulosic). At least thats what I would expect Mr. Khosla to say.

The energy return on corn ethanol is very poor, as has much been discussed. The energy return on cellulosic ethanol is higher, by a magnitude of 10-20 (magnitudes are somehwat meaningless when the net energy of something is less than one). However, as you have oft pointed out, and I will take a step further here, an energy technology is part energy harvesting and part energy conversion. Energy harvesting of cellulosic material is actually pretty good, but then the embodied energy in the lignin or bagasse is yours to choose what to use it for.

Using it for fermentation to create a product like ethanol (with less than 70% of BTUs per gallon as gasoline) is a poor conversion process. Much better, from a straight energy return standpoint, would be to gasify or burn the cellulose and generate some other form of energy service for society.

This gets at the energy quality issue. Currently electricity is higher in price than oil, per BTU. In a post peak oil world, UNLESS we transform our transportation into more electrical, liquid fuels will be so needed for transportation that the energy quality upgrade from biomass to ethanol may be worth the energy loss. (though if at that point we are still use natural gas at the still, it will be turning gold to lead, and if we use coal we are turning Alaska to Hawaii)

I think the difference in yours and Mr Khoslas position can be summed to this basic point: he BELIEVES that cellulosic ethanol will work for the US and that corn ethanol is priming the pump. You KNOW that corn ethanol is poor idea and are uncertain as to what the future of cellulosic holds, because the past has not produced any miracles.

Nationwide ethanol infrastructure is betting on the come.

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Robert Rapier on November 4, 2006 - 1:59pm

You wouldnt, unless you a) needed someone to pay for the infrastructure to sell your product or b) you realized your product wasnt't too great at present, but smart persuasive people told you to expect your product to dramatically improve in the near future (cellulosic). At least thats what I would expect Mr. Khosla to say.

That's exactly what he and his sycophants say. However, we don't need a massive infrastructure build out. We can't even fill the infrastructure we have. All the vehicles in the country can run on E10. But this would take triple the ethanol that we now make. So, I would suggest that they start building out more infrastructure once they begin to fully utilize what's already in place.

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SunnyvaleCA on November 4, 2006 - 5:57pm

Wouldn't it be much more intelligent to promote diesel vehicles instead of E85-capable ones? Diesels running B50 or B85 run at just about the same efficiency as straight diesel. B85 can be pushed through the existing distribution system and burned in existing diesel cars and trucks without modifiction of any sort.

Question: do manufacturers who make diesel cars also get the CAFE bonus like cars that can burn E85?

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Robert Rapier on November 4, 2006 - 6:22pm

Wouldn't it be much more intelligent to promote diesel vehicles instead of E85-capable ones?

Absolutely, and I told Khosla this on the phone. His response was essentially that diesels are dirty, and market penetration is not great enough to make it worth his while. Well, isn't he trying to force market penetration of E85? I think he is just pushing the wrong technology.

Question: do manufacturers who make diesel cars also get the CAFE bonus like cars that can burn E85?

I don't think so. If they do, I have never heard about it.

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