<DrumBeat: November 13, 2006The Oil DrumTOD:UK to become TOD:Europe (and...anyone know anything about wikis?)>

194 comments on Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau

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totoneila on November 13, 2006 - 2:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello Prof Goose and Khebab,

Yes, fellow TODers--Hit those tipjars please!!!

My Reddit post:

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IF the world is in a plateau--How long can it be sustained?  Is world oil production like a cheetah with a high speed, but only a short plateaued burst?  Or is the plateau more like a giraffe with long legs and a lasting trot?  Khebab does an outstanding job and everyone needs to study these charts.
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What I find disturbing is that many country charts have a late-date small hitch up attributed by many experts to Extreme Oil Recovery methods [EOR].  This has been discussed before by TODer DuncanK and notable others with the comparisons to the fast-collapse of the Yibal field in Oman, but it leads me to think the plateau will be more like a cheetah instead of the lasting plod of a giraffe.

Therefore, is there any way to characterwise what percentage of Type II production is EOR to help determine the possible duration period of the plateau?  In short Khebab: what is the confidence %'s going forward?  

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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totoneila on November 13, 2006 - 2:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Hello TODers,

Just to help prod this cheetah vs giraffe plateau comparison along, consider Leanan's Drumbeat toplink post today [as usual, kudos to Leanan!]: Peak oil on the agenda: Notes from the Australian Institute of Energy annual forum

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James' report below contains some minor bombshells, for instance Lloyd Taylor, former Chairman of Shell NZ, claiming that even based on the USGS data, there is a 60% chance of peak oil by 2015.
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Don't most experts consider the USGS a bit optimistic?  Therefore, is a 7-9 year plateau  a pipedream?  The production treadmill the Type II Red Queen is pacing is not only going faster, but the ramp incline is jacking up, too.

Pemex has already admitted to a $2 billion shortfall, Gazprom is twiddling it's thumbs to extract the maximum Euro, and KSA is punching holes as fast as they can, wearing out the rigs faster than the industry can build replacements.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

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Khebab on November 13, 2006 - 3:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Therefore, is there any way to characterwise what percentage of Type II production is EOR to help determine the possible duration period of the plateau?
It's very difficult to know without detailed field-by-field data. If the logistic model holds for the group III and Canadian Tar Sands production double by 2010, the supply coming from group II has to increase by a minimum of 10 mbpd (+10%) by 2012. 10 mbpd is the equivalent of a new Saudi Arabia! and I was very pessimistic on future demand growth (+1.5%).
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Jason Bradford on November 13, 2006 - 4:37pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
What a fantastic post!

I have noticed the tendency of analyses like these to be "conservative" in the sense that the potentials for future projects to come online in time, depletion rates to remain low, etc. are given the benefit of the doubt.  

What I would like to see is a "conservative" analysis in the sense of "what if things don't go according to plan?"  What does it look like if "another Saudia Arabia" doesn't manifest from the Type II countries?  

How fast is the global depletion rate likely to be and when does it become very noticable?  

I don't believe total predictive ability, just want a set of scenarios we can consider realistic considering Murphy's Law.  What we have here is a kind of "best case" scenario, what would be a "not so great case," in other words?

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jim burke on November 13, 2006 - 9:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Mentioning Murphy's Law is spot on.

Khebab's excellent post demonstrates what we should consider a best case scenario. Political, military and environmental factors can do nothing but provide setbacks to production.  

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Khebab on November 13, 2006 - 10:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks for the kind words!

It's hard to tell, There are so many things that can go wrong! The worst case scenario is SA or Russia going south. Another issue is the likely overestimation of Middle-East reserves. You have to read my post also in light of Stuart's analysis (Why peak oil is probably about now):

There is also the result of the HL on Saudi Arabia which is worriesome (Texas and US Lower 48 oil production as a model for Saudi Arabia and the world):

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fringy on November 13, 2006 - 7:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
"IF the world is in a plateau--How long can it be sustained?"

I think one thing we forget is the size of the curve.  The base could be said to start in 1930 (or even go back to spindletop) and end in 2070 (perhaps dragging on in small volumes further).  Given a base of 140 - 200 years, a 10 year plateau/peak does not seem unreasonable - even for a perfect Hubbert curve.

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Dragonfly41 on November 13, 2006 - 9:20pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
This is quite true, I think.  We may have just started along the Plateau and could hang there defying gravity for a decade or so.  Things may only speed up once there is general awareness of what this Plateau really is.  

At this point, we may speed up towards the end of the Plateau due mainly to protectionism (nationalist hording of resources - i.e. what I think Russia is currently doing).  If this gets out of hand, then this period of "suspended stability" could end sooner than later.

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PeakOilPete on November 14, 2006 - 4:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
additionally, while production/extraction may platea, demand will not.  exponential growth in emerging markets (as if china and india are merely emerging) will also shorten the plateau, or stated inversely, cause the inevitable decline to start sooner.
-PoP
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kunstler on November 14, 2006 - 10:11am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Are we discounting or forgetting the destabilizing effects of the plateau itself?  And how those instabilities in complex systems such as financial markets and geo-political relations will affect oil production.  For instance, the extreme instability manifested in Iraq right now could easily lead to sabotage in the oil fields.  If Iraqi oil goes offline this coming year, oil will (at least) spike up to the $80-100 range.
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GreyZone on November 14, 2006 - 3:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I think Khebab is using just the geology to define the upper bounds of the supply, which establishes why this may actually be the peak plateau and not another interlude. The effects that emanate out from that are not as amenable to pure statistical analysis. As you note, they have the potential to be massively disruptive also but one cannot make specific predictions about how the overall system will oscillate out of control. Instead Khebab is trying to show that we're at the point where this oscillation can occur. At least that is my understanding here.
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elwoodelmore on November 13, 2006 - 7:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
extreme oil recovery    roflmao   i think you mean enhanced oil recovery
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