 | DrumBeat: November 13, 2006 | The Oil Drum | TOD:UK to become TOD:Europe (and...anyone know anything about wikis?) |  |
194 comments on Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau
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I have noticed the tendency of analyses like these to be "conservative" in the sense that the potentials for future projects to come online in time, depletion rates to remain low, etc. are given the benefit of the doubt.
What I would like to see is a "conservative" analysis in the sense of "what if things don't go according to plan?" What does it look like if "another Saudia Arabia" doesn't manifest from the Type II countries?
How fast is the global depletion rate likely to be and when does it become very noticable?
I don't believe total predictive ability, just want a set of scenarios we can consider realistic considering Murphy's Law. What we have here is a kind of "best case" scenario, what would be a "not so great case," in other words?
Khebab's excellent post demonstrates what we should consider a best case scenario. Political, military and environmental factors can do nothing but provide setbacks to production.
It's hard to tell, There are so many things that can go wrong! The worst case scenario is SA or Russia going south. Another issue is the likely overestimation of Middle-East reserves. You have to read my post also in light of Stuart's analysis (Why peak oil is probably about now):
There is also the result of the HL on Saudi Arabia which is worriesome (Texas and US Lower 48 oil production as a model for Saudi Arabia and the world):