The Oil Drum

I somewhat arbitrarily place the transition from Phase I to Phase II when the US/North America can run 100% off renewables + nuke for 1,000 hours/year.#  I assume that this is a point of ever increasing renewables (+ nuke ?) and the next year will have even more hours of 100% renewable + nuke.

Strong March winds might fill up all available pumped storage and leave no option but "spilling" (hydro term) some renewable energy.  The spill at the Phase I/II boundary would be much less than 1% of total energy, but it is a trend not to be continued (IMHO).

Thus I stated "Phase I - EV not good, Phase II - EV good".

Small EVs (also called neighborhood EVs) like GEM are almost like electric bicycles, good at any time.  Their energy consumption is so low, efficiency so high and they are not suitable for high speed, long distance commuting so I support them now, in Phase 0.

OTOH, the Toyota RAV4 EV has higher consumption and can help preserve suburbia.  Let "the market" push that EV w/o gov't subsidies.

Again, I propose no disincentive for large EVs (better than ICEs) but also no incentives.  Focus gov't assistance on the "bigger bang for the buck" Urban Rail UNTIL we cross the Phase I/II boundary. Then subsidize EVs.

I have thought quite a bit about this and am working out my conceptual framework.  This is a work in progress and not a completed plan.

Best Hopes,

Alan

# The 1,000 hours/year will be mainly at night during the spring & fall.  Summer wind is at a minimum in many areas and winter is peak output but also has heating demand to absorb much wind generation.