Something of note about the weather here in New England: Mark Twain's satire has come true:
If you don't like the weather in New England, wait a minute.
If nat. gas prices hinge on weather to any degree, then the weather here says it's a crap shoot: two years in a row with rainfall at least 50% above normal; "open" winter months, meaning no snow on the ground; this year we have a sweltering November, in the same way that last year we had a December that was so mild I spread manure on the field before Christmas.
Meanwhile, on the west coast there is snow in places that sometimes never see snow in the year (Seattle, Vancouver), with temperatures about 10-15 C (18-27 F) below "normal".
That is a very good way to phrase it. Did you know that every other warm period has ended with a significant warming event that then transitioned, often in less than a decade, into a full blown ice age?
I know this is a US and Euro-centered website, but try telling that to the Phillipines, who just got nailed by their 4th(!!) Katrina+ sized supertyphoon in the last 10 weeks. Can you imagine the hue and cry if that were to happen to us?
I think Leanan pointed this out earlier. Even though the GOM or Eastern US didn't get pummeled this year, there are other parts of the world that did. So overall hurricane/typhoon activity is still probably higher than average across the globe.
I suggest doing a little more research before coming to that conclusion.
There was a lot of typhoon and cyclonic action in the world this year. Australia alone had two back to back CAT 5, stormsone of which knocked out almost all of the country's banana crop. I might add that strong cyclones hitting Australia had almost faded from memory as the last which caused any major damage occured back in 1974 with cyclone Tracy.
I'm talking about a major hurricane before Katrina. I find the GW to super hurricane link to be tenuous at best. It took 30+ years of increasing temperatures for one to manifest in the US/NO and cause the destruction everyone was talking about.
I'm talking about a major hurricane before Katrina. I find the GW to super hurricane link to be tenuous at best. It took 30+ years of increasing temperatures for one to manifest in the US/NO and cause the destruction everyone was talking about.
Buddy it only takes one event laid on by nature that exceeds the specified design criteria of whatever technofix you've got in place, and you're screwed. Case in point - New Orleans.
Like wise, it only takes one event laid on by nature that exceeds the specified design criteria of whatever permaculturefix you've got in place, and you're screwed. Guess we should all just roll over and die then, right?
Like wise, it only takes one event laid on by nature that exceeds the specified design criteria of whatever permaculturefix you've got in place, and you're screwed. Guess we should all just roll over and die then, right?
Yep, only the scale of the disaster is different. Buddy people have been producing (including reproducing) and consuming without limits while drawing down finite resources for several centuries now - stuffing up the natural world in the process, it doesn't matter what technofixes you try to institute to alleviate the symptoms of all that producing and consuming going on, eventually there will be a collapse and die-off when the resources that enabled our overshoot (like fossil fuels) are exhausted. All technofixes do in the context of perpetual growth in a finite world is ensure that the collapse and die-off will be even more resounding when it comes, as there will be more people, infrastructure, and GDP being supported at the final ecological reckoning. Doesn't matter what you and I want or think as these trends of exponential growth and consumption are continuing unabated, and will continue to do so as virtually all people in the world are clamouring for more development (production and consumption) not less. Worldwide population control is politically impossible, and no one will willingly agree to reduce their living standards in order to conserve finite resources and the biosphere for the benefit of future generations and the other species.
The "specified design criteria" þ were NOT exceeded during Katrina. The US Army# finally admitted that they knew that their design was faulty and would fail prematurely in 1985, biut kepy quite about the design fault.
Some retired colonel ot general should be found in retirement, court martialed and shot for killing over 1,000 Americans through criminal neglect.
þ The debris line was 12 to 13 inches below the top when the 17th Street Canal when it just collapsed. I have talked to eye witnesses and seen photos.
# In 1928, after the Great Mississippi River Flood of 1927, the US Army was given responsibility for flood control for several US cities critical to the nation's well being. New Orleans and St. Louis among the few cities specified (from meory)
The "specified design criteria" þ were NOT exceeded during Katrina.
Alan, whether by accident or design the levy walls were breached, and that is the point. If it wasn't meant to be there in the first place, was poorly designed, or is merely addressing the effects of overproduction and over-consumption rather than the overproduction and over-consumption itself, you're just delaying the inevitable. Nature will always produce an event which is greater than the specified design criteria - for there are no technofixes for the problems generated by perpetual growth in a finite world. You just allow more people to exist, more infrastructure and GDP to be supported before the inevitable day of reckoning, and this was the lesson of Katrina.
No, the lesson of Katrina was that the US Army was criminally negligent. Had we had honest engineers, say, Dutch, we would have had a couple of weeks without power, lots of roof damage, a half dozen dead from accidents, etc.
You are seeing some great moral anout civilization that is JUST NOT THERE ! It is very similar to a dam failure whe nthe water rises to within a foot of the top of the dam. The moral is NOT "Oh my God, we should not build dams !" but "What idiot built that dam !"
Amsterdam & Rotterdam are protected behind multiple layers of defense against 10,000 year storms and are mulling how to improve that rating with sea level rise.
Fortunately, New Orleans already knows the answer to that. Use the sediment from the spring floods to build up the delta, reversing a century of US Army Corps of Engineers.
The moral is NOT "Oh my God, we should not build dams !" but "What idiot built that dam !"
Another side effect of placing too much faith in technology is that sometimes it just fails. After all it is designed by humans. Mistakes can occur in the design, materials, construction or the simple operation of the system involved. Alan I agree with your sentiments. There is no moral to the story behind Katrina - only lessons. And a lesson is presented until it is learnt it's said. I feel there will be many lessons to be learnt through the pain of the collapse that's to come.
The lesson is not a "mistake", but a fundamental lack of INTEGRITY by a SYSTEM. In this case, it was engineers in the uniform of the US Army who lacked a fundamental level of integrity !
I just harvested the last of my lettuce, chard, and arugula three days ago, before the cold hit. Impressive for the middle of the country the end of November, but that's the way it's been for a few years now, around here.
Summer here started quite early, no rain at all for many months, and stayed late. 85 degrees as late as last week. Very very unseasonal, all year long.
According to the news this morning, here in the St. Louis
area, 350,000 people are without power. The utilities are
doing their best to restore power in the area but are having difficulty getting help from neighboring utilities because they are busy dealing with outages in their area.
Wednesday it was about 70 degrees here. Yesterday, it was freezing rain and snow.
Whoa! Planet of the frickin' Apes. 70 Degrees! Holy Shit! That musta been like Hell. Freezing rain and snow! Wowie Zowie! That sounds like an Old Grateful Dead Tune. How did you ever survive? It must have been wicked cold. Are you OK?
Meanwhile, on the other side of the pond, Finland remains remarkably warm, today 7C / 45F in Helsinki. Usually at the beginning of December there is snow pretty much everywhere in the country (except perhaps the South Coast), but now it seems only the northernmost bits have any snow at all. And according to forecasts, the unusual warm spell will continue next week. Just the other day I saw a meteorologist on TV saying that, while one can't be sure of the causes, this is pretty much what the climate change models would predict.
Germany seems to have experienced the coldest August on record this year, followed by the warmest October and November, ever. The warmest November was so in the bag that it was declared about a week ago, since no one expected a few -20° (either scale) days to even things out at the end.
No one seriously doubts climate change in Germany, and a good number of people are worried about it, at all levels. There is no climate change denial industry here, though of course, there are major corporate power blocs (car industry, power industry) which would prefer to keep their profit margins comfortable, without having to deal with the still not conclusively proven.
...and here it is, December 1, in Maine, and we're getting one hell of a thunderstorm. This is too much.
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If nat. gas prices hinge on weather to any degree, then the weather here says it's a crap shoot: two years in a row with rainfall at least 50% above normal; "open" winter months, meaning no snow on the ground; this year we have a sweltering November, in the same way that last year we had a December that was so mild I spread manure on the field before Christmas.
Maybe "no normal" is the new normal. :-)
The middle of the country is a mess. Two feet of snow in Texas, tornados in Ohio. I pity anyone trying to fly yesterday.
I like the phrase "Climate Change" more than "Global Warming" to describe what the world is currently experiencing.
There was a lot of typhoon and cyclonic action in the world this year. Australia alone had two back to back CAT 5, stormsone of which knocked out almost all of the country's banana crop. I might add that strong cyclones hitting Australia had almost faded from memory as the last which caused any major damage occured back in 1974 with cyclone Tracy.
Err, last year.
Buddy it only takes one event laid on by nature that exceeds the specified design criteria of whatever technofix you've got in place, and you're screwed. Case in point - New Orleans.
Yep, only the scale of the disaster is different. Buddy people have been producing (including reproducing) and consuming without limits while drawing down finite resources for several centuries now - stuffing up the natural world in the process, it doesn't matter what technofixes you try to institute to alleviate the symptoms of all that producing and consuming going on, eventually there will be a collapse and die-off when the resources that enabled our overshoot (like fossil fuels) are exhausted. All technofixes do in the context of perpetual growth in a finite world is ensure that the collapse and die-off will be even more resounding when it comes, as there will be more people, infrastructure, and GDP being supported at the final ecological reckoning. Doesn't matter what you and I want or think as these trends of exponential growth and consumption are continuing unabated, and will continue to do so as virtually all people in the world are clamouring for more development (production and consumption) not less. Worldwide population control is politically impossible, and no one will willingly agree to reduce their living standards in order to conserve finite resources and the biosphere for the benefit of future generations and the other species.
Some retired colonel ot general should be found in retirement, court martialed and shot for killing over 1,000 Americans through criminal neglect.
þ The debris line was 12 to 13 inches below the top when the 17th Street Canal when it just collapsed. I have talked to eye witnesses and seen photos.
# In 1928, after the Great Mississippi River Flood of 1927, the US Army was given responsibility for flood control for several US cities critical to the nation's well being. New Orleans and St. Louis among the few cities specified (from meory)
Alan, whether by accident or design the levy walls were breached, and that is the point. If it wasn't meant to be there in the first place, was poorly designed, or is merely addressing the effects of overproduction and over-consumption rather than the overproduction and over-consumption itself, you're just delaying the inevitable. Nature will always produce an event which is greater than the specified design criteria - for there are no technofixes for the problems generated by perpetual growth in a finite world. You just allow more people to exist, more infrastructure and GDP to be supported before the inevitable day of reckoning, and this was the lesson of Katrina.
You are seeing some great moral anout civilization that is JUST NOT THERE ! It is very similar to a dam failure whe nthe water rises to within a foot of the top of the dam. The moral is NOT "Oh my God, we should not build dams !" but "What idiot built that dam !"
Amsterdam & Rotterdam are protected behind multiple layers of defense against 10,000 year storms and are mulling how to improve that rating with sea level rise.
Fortunately, New Orleans already knows the answer to that. Use the sediment from the spring floods to build up the delta, reversing a century of US Army Corps of Engineers.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Another side effect of placing too much faith in technology is that sometimes it just fails. After all it is designed by humans. Mistakes can occur in the design, materials, construction or the simple operation of the system involved. Alan I agree with your sentiments. There is no moral to the story behind Katrina - only lessons. And a lesson is presented until it is learnt it's said. I feel there will be many lessons to be learnt through the pain of the collapse that's to come.
Alan
And we have longer complete records than anyone else-- back to the 1690s, I believe.
Also the warmest November on record. And nearly the warmest year on record.
area, 350,000 people are without power. The utilities are
doing their best to restore power in the area but are having difficulty getting help from neighboring utilities because they are busy dealing with outages in their area.
Wednesday it was about 70 degrees here. Yesterday, it was freezing rain and snow.
Australia and the UK are both in a severe drought.
November has been warm, wet and windy.
A lot of rigs have been 'waiting on weather' due to a sequence of low pressure systems coming in from the Atlantic.
We have not had a frost worthy of the name and some trees are budding.
Still it can change quickly, but I am not betting on a White Christmas :-(
But the last few days have had record rainfall, I think.
But the last few days have had record rainfall, I think.
Add to that we've had hail, in London.
I can only think of hail, here, two or three times in the last 20 years (I would notice, because where I grew up August hail was a common occurrence).
No one seriously doubts climate change in Germany, and a good number of people are worried about it, at all levels. There is no climate change denial industry here, though of course, there are major corporate power blocs (car industry, power industry) which would prefer to keep their profit margins comfortable, without having to deal with the still not conclusively proven.