The Oil Drum

Ron,
     That question maybe answered a lot sooner than we think because the media is taking a big interest in it. Colin Campbell told me yesterday that he is now hit with a flood of emails and requests to speak at conferences etc. He said TV crews are beating a trail to his doorstep in Ballydehob. A good friend of his wrote the nemesis report in Newsletter 46 see: http://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsletter46_200410.pdf   He is from the oil industry and says Saudi peaked in 2004 having only ever produced 19 fields from the 80 they have and only 8 of those were stars. His forecast back then appears to be what is coming to pass.
      Greg Croft says that Ghawar had produced 51 billion barrels at the end of 2000 so that would mean obout 60 billion has now gone http://www.gregcroft.com/ghawar.ivnu which would mean probably 60% depletion. Shaybah was discovered in 1968 had immense technical difficulties and still has (see pages 205-210 from Twilight in the Desert)so it is an existing field that has had to be produced to handle big declines elsewhere.
      On the subject of what the Aramco people say why would you believe any of them when they continue to foster the impression their reserves are unchanged at 262 billion barrels? I believe that you and Jeffrey are correct and Robert is not