<Your Favorite Post of the Year...The Oil DrumDrumBeat: December 29, 2006>

154 comments on World Crude Oil Production Forecast using Current Fields and Future Megaprojects

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austex on December 28, 2006 - 7:53pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"There are some Gas To Liquids projects coming on line, and there some Coal To Liquids possibilities, but all of these are high cost, generally low production rate projects. IMO, they will serve to slow, but not reverse the decline in aggregate oil production."

This is an inaccurate statement. In fact, the projects coming online from these sources are very significant - and if oil stays at $60 per barrel you should expect more to follow. Here are two projects due in the next couple of years just from SA ALONE that add up to 560k per day:

Saudi Arabia Khursaniyah Gas New development 2007 250 bpd
Saudi Arabia Hawiyah New development 2008 310 bpd

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westexas on December 28, 2006 - 8:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Here are two projects due in the next couple of years just from SA ALONE that add up to 560k per day

So, we only need about 30 Khursaniya projects to meet the net decline over five years at 2% per annum decline rate. And again, net exports are falling much faster than overall production is falling.

A couple of points.

You are only talking about accelerating our rate of extraction of finite fossil fuels, in a desperate attempt to keep the supply of Liquid Transportation Fuels (LTF's) stable to growing. Fossil fuels can be viewed as a continuum, from natural gas to natural gas liquids, to condensate, to light/sweet crude, to heavy/sour crude, to bitumen, to coal. We can get LTF's from the endpoints, but the capital and energy costs goes up significantly, and again, all we are talking about doing is accelerating our rate of extraction of fossil fuel supplies.

In regard to Natural Gas, there have been several articles suggesting that world gas supplies are overestimated, and the US case history doesn't offer much support. Our all time record high natural gas production was three years after oil peaked. In any case, Saudi Arabia has already started curtailing some projects because of a lack of natural gas supplies.

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austex on December 28, 2006 - 8:17pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

"So, we only need about 30 Khursaniya projects to meet the net decline over five years at 2% per annum decline rate. And again, net exports are falling much faster than overall production is falling."

I disagree. There will 1000's of projects over the next five years. Some big, some small. Some oil, some ethanol. Etc etc. To say that "we need 30 Khursaniya"s may sound good for alarmists - but IMO it's not really looking at the bigger picture objectively.

I agree with you on the extraction of finite fossil fuels and that this will at some point peak. I just disagree with the timing.

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jjhman on December 28, 2006 - 11:46pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

Ethanol?

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DelusionaL on December 29, 2006 - 1:16pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

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