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109 comments on Tracking the EIA Short Term Forecasts

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odograph on December 30, 2006 - 12:01pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

You say "less risky" but does either method produce a probability with its forecast? Or does probability remain a secondary, fuzzy, human, meta-judgement?

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Sam Foucher on December 30, 2006 - 12:11pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

That's a tricky question. Based on recent production history, a 2% growth rate is very likely. However, an exponential growth cannot go forever in a physical world so the exponential model is very unlikely on a large time scale.

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Engineer on December 30, 2006 - 1:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I agree. In fact, sustained exponential growth is not sustainable in most systems on even a medium or short time scale. Overshoot and collapse is an all too common response in everything from prices to populations.

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odograph on December 30, 2006 - 2:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top

I worried that someone would take the idea that 2% can't continue "forever" and flip it to a psuedo-proof of collapse.

The fact is, it isn't a proof of that or anything else. There might be plateaus, there might be soft landings, there might be a "long tail" ... who knows?

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109 comments on Tracking the EIA Short Term Forecasts

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